The Roma in Bulgaria’ s Criminal Justice System: From Ethnic Profiling to Imprisonment

This paper examines the use of ethnic-specific crime data by law enforcement authorities as an instrument to formulate policies. The focus is on Bulgaria – one of the few East European countries whose criminal justice system keeps data on ethnicity – and the country’s Roma population. During the 1990s, Bulgaria’ s deep economic and social crisis impacted significantly on Bulgaria’ s Roma minority and, arguably, led to an increase in crime rates amongst the Roma. To date, however, the Bulgarian government has failed to adequately address this situation. The main argument that this paper puts forward is that over-policing of the Roma minority is a consequence of lack of adequate data on the Roma’ s involvement in crime, coupled with a crime-fighting strategy that is largely based on ethnic prejudice. As a result, a disproportionate number of Roma end-up in prisons or in long-term detention. Former inmates, in turn, influence their communities and establish a ‘revolving cycle’ of crime and social marginalisation, which is manifested in an increasing critical mass of the Roma male population in the criminal justice system.     

Proactive Policing: a Summary of the Report of the National Academies of Sciences,Engineering, and Medicine

This paper provides a summary of our report for the National Academy of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine on proactive policing. We find that there is sufficient scientific evidence to support the adoption of many proactive policing practices if the primary goal is to reduce crime, though the evidence base generally does not provide long-term or jurisdictional estimates. In turn, we conclude that crime prevention outcomes can often be obtained without producing negative community reactions. However, the most effective proactive policing strategies do not appear to have strong positive impacts on citizen perceptions of the police. At the same time, some community-based strategies have begun to show evidence of improving the relations between the police and public. We conclude that there are likely to be large racial disparities in the volume and nature of police–citizen encounters when police target high-risk people or high-risk places, as is common in many proactive policing programs. We could not conclude whether such disparities are due to statistical prediction, racial animus, implicit bias, or other causes.

     

Individual Confidence Intervals Do Not Inform Decision-Makers About the Accuracy of Risk Assessment Evaluations

Some recent articles have proposed that the confidence interval for the predicted outcome of a single case can be used to describe the predictive accuracy of risk assessments (Hart et al. Br J Psychiat 190:60–65, 2007b; Cooke and Michie, Law Hum Behav 2009). Given that the confidence intervals for an individual prediction are very large, Cooke and colleagues have questioned the wisdom of applying recidivism rates estimated from group data to single cases. In this article, we argue that the confidence intervals for the recidivism outcome predicted for a single case will range between zero to one (i.e., be uninformative) when the outcome is dichotomous and the predicted probability is between .05 and .95. This is true by definition and limits the utility of using individual confidence intervals to measure predictive accuracy. Consequently, other quality indicators (many of which are non-quantitative) are needed to determine the accuracy and error of risk evaluations.     

Interpretive Filters: Social Cognition and the Impact of Turning Points in Negotiation

A number of studies have shown that certain events that occur during a negotiation can alter its course. Referred to as "turning points," these events are precipitated by actions taken either outside or inside the talks that have consequences for outcomes. In this article, we report the results of two experiments designed to examine the impacts of two types of precipitating actions, external and internal. In the first experiment, which focused on external actions, we found that crises — as opposed to breakthroughs — produced more movement in negotiations in which parties viewed the social climate positively (high trust, low power). We found that parties achieved less movement in negative social climates (low trust, high power).
In the second experiment, which focused on internal actions, we found that cooperative precipitants (factors inducing change) were more likely to occur when parties negotiated in the context of positive social climates. Negotiation outcomes were also influenced by the climate: we found better individual outcomes for negotiations that occurred in positive climates (high trust, cooperative orientations). Inboth experiments, the social climate of the negotiation moderated the effects of precipitating factors on negotiation outcomes. Perceptions of trust and power filter the way negotiators interpret actions that occur outside or are taken inside a negotiation, which can lead to agreements or impasses.     

Reviews

John N. Hazard, Managing Change in the USSR: The Political‐Legal Role of the Soviet Jurist, Cambridge: CUP, 1983, ix + 182 pp. £17.50.

Martin McCauley (ed.). The Soviet Union after Brezhnev, London: Heinemann, 1983 and New York: Holmes and Meier, 1983, xii + 160 pp. hardback £14.50, paperback £5.50.

Jonathan Haslam, Soviet Foreign Policy 1930–33: The Impact of the Depression, London: Macmillan, 1983, xii + 172 pp. £25.00.

Gavriel D. Ra'anan, International Policy Formation in the USSR: Factional ‘Debates’ during the Zhdanovshchina, foreword by Robert Conquest. Hamden, Connecticut: Archon Books, 1983. Distributed by Leicester UP, xi + 248 pp. £20.00.

Ivan Szelenyi, Urban Inequalities under State Socialism, Oxford: OUP, 1983, x + 158 pp. hardback £15.00, paperback £5.95.

Arvo Tuominen, The Bells of the Kremlin: An Experience in Communism, Hanover and London: University Press of New England, 1983, xvi + 333 pp. $27.00.

Gregory Guroff and Fred V. Carstensen (eds.), Entrepreneur ship in Imperial Russia and the Soviet Union, Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University Press, 1983, 372 pp. hardback £34.50, paperback £11.30.

Robert C. Horn, Soviet‐Indian Relations: Issues and Influence, New York, Praeger, 1982, xviii+231 pp. hardback $24.95, paperback $8.95.

Stephen R. Sacks, Self‐Management and Efficiency: Large Corporations in Yugoslavia, London: George Allen & Unwin, 1983, xi + 163 pp. £15.00.

C. K. Chase‐Dunn (ed.), Socialist States in the World System. Beverly Hills, Calif.: Sage Publications, 1982, 304 pp. hardback $28.00, paperback $14.00.

David Kideckel (ed.), Political Rituals and Symbolism in Socialist Eastern Europe. Special issue of Anthropological Quarterly, April 1983, vol. 56, no. 2, pp. 52–104. Anthropological Quarterly, 620 Michigan Avenue N.E., Washington D.C. 20064. $5.00.     

On the apparent benefits of higher productivity: An arithmetical illustration a comment

During the 1980s, like many other developing countries Nepal attempted actively to attract direct foreign investment. This article reports the results of a survey of the foreign‐owned firms in operation at the end of the 1980s. The motives of firms for their investment decisions in Nepal are summarised. The impact of foreign investment is assessed quantitatively using both financial and economic cost‐benefit criteria. In general, it appears that foreign investment has been beneficial to both the foreign investors and the national economy. Foreign investors from India have played a particularly important role. However, much of the national returns from foreign investment is derived from the payment of taxes, so that an excessively generous policy of tax incentives may not maximise national returns.     

Comparative anti-corruption policy: the american,soviet and russian cases

In light of significant conceptual and methodological difficulties that face comparative corruption research, we propose to treat comparative anti-corruption policy as worthy of study in its own right. By using measures of enforcement activity as evidence of anti-corruption, rather than flawed proxy measures of corruption, we endeavor to surmount some of obstacles to comparing radically different political systems. We compare anti-corruption activity in the US and the USSR and elaborate three theoretical perspectives-emphasizing political, institutional, and symbolic factors--and show how each might improve our understanding of anti-corruption policy in the two nations. By applying these three frameworks to the Russian republic, we assess anti-corruption policy in an unsettled, emerging political system and suggest that the dynamics that underlie Russia's anti-corruption policy will more closely resemble US policy than was the case in the USSR.     

Parallel event sequences in international crises

This study presents a theory of foreign policy decision-making based on event structures that would account for the ability of foreign policy experts to make short-term predictions in the presence of incomplete information and noise. An algorithm is devised that constructs subsequences of events that occur in international crises coded in the Behavioral Correlates of War (BCOW) data set. Four subsets of BCOW crises are considered: nonwar crises, pre-World War I wars, post-World War I wars, and a mixture of nonwar and war crises. About six common subsequences are found in each of the sets; these cover about 35% of the events in the crisis sequences after the sequences have been filtered on the basis of novelty. The subsequences differ substantially between the subsets of crises and exhibit a degree of internal consistency. The subsequences also can be used to differentiate between nonwar and war crises by using the fit of each subsequence to construct a vector characterizing the crisis, then clustering on the basis of those vectors.