Intimate Partner Violence Victims’ Accuracy in Assessing their Risk of Re-abuse

Using four categories of accuracy (true positive, false positive, true negative, false negative), this study explored (1) how accurately intimate partner violence (IPV) victims are able to assess their risk of re-abuse; and (2) potential predictors of accuracy. Women seeking help for IPV (N = 246) rated the likelihood that they would experience physical re-abuse in the coming year and then reported 18 months later whether those risks had been realized. Victim assessments were more likely to be right than wrong, and were subject to neither a pessimistic nor optimistic bias. In the multivariate analysis, significant/marginally significant predictors of the accuracy categories were the history of violence from this and former partners, level of substance use, PTSD symptoms, and the recency of the violence. Among the more robust findings were the connection between level of stalking and true positives, and between substance use and false negatives. This study suggests that victim assessments have significant potential to inform practice, and deserve further exploration.

A Preliminary Examination of Differential Decomposition Patterns in Mass Graves

Five pairs of mass graves, each containing carcasses of 21 rabbits, were used to examine differential decomposition at four locations within the burial: surface, deep, mid‐outer, and core. Every 100 accumulated degree days (ADD), a pair of graves was exhumed, and total body score (TBS) and internal carcass temperature of each rabbit were recorded. Decomposition did not differ for core‐ and deep‐positioned carcasses (p = 0.13); differences were significant (p < 0.001) for all other location comparisons. Decomposition occurred fastest in shallow carcasses, followed by mid‐outer carcasses; deep and core carcasses decomposed slowest and at rates not significantly different from one another. Adipocere formation was minimal and confined to deep carcasses. Carcass location within the mass grave significantly influenced internal carcass temperature (p < 0.001); a mean internal temperature difference of ca. 1°C existed between deep and shallow carcasses (30 cm apart). Effects of mass compactness and oxygenation require further investigation.     

Antiforeigner Resentment as a Manifestation of Xhosa Hegemonic Masculinity

Abstract

During a xenophobia and social cohesion research project conducted by the Safety and Violence Initiative (SaVI) of the University of Cape Town (UCT) and Freedom House USA, researchers found an overwhelming perception that foreign nationals were taking things that belong to South Africans. This perception was most prevalent in the male population, and antiforeigner resentment was mainly aimed toward male foreign nationals. This paper uses ethnographic research in the form of qualitative interviews from Motherwell and Makhanda in the Eastern Cape province to find out how constructions of hegemonic masculinities at the local level contribute to antiforeigner resentment.     

Toward a Demographic Understanding of Incarceration Disparities: Race,Ethnicity, and Age Structure

Objectives

Non-Hispanic blacks and Hispanics in the United States are more likely to be incarcerated than non-Hispanic whites. The risk of incarceration also varies with age, and there are striking differences in age distributions across racial/ethnic groups. Guided by these trends, the present study examines the extent to which differences in age structure account for incarceration disparities across racial and ethnic groups.

Methods

We apply two techniques commonly employed in the field of demography, age-standardization and decomposition, to data provided by the Bureau of Justice Statistics and the 2010 decennial census to assess the contribution of age structure to racial and ethnic disparities in incarceration.

Findings

The non-Hispanic black and Hispanic incarceration rates in 2010 would have been 13–20 % lower if these groups had age structures identical to that of the non-Hispanic white population. Moreover, age structure accounts for 20 % of the Hispanic/white disparity and 8 % of the black/white disparity.

Conclusion

The comparison of crude incarceration rates across racial/ethnic groups may not be ideal because these groups boast strikingly different age structures. Since the risk of imprisonment is tied to age, criminologists should consider adjusting for age structure when comparing rates of incarceration across groups.

     

Inferring the Number of Contributors to Complex DNA Mixtures Using Three Methods: Exploring the Limits of Low‐Template DNA Interpretation

In forensic DNA casework, the interpretation of an evidentiary profile may be dependent upon the assumption on the number of individuals from whom the evidence arose. Three methods of inferring the number of contributors—NOCIt, maximum likelihood estimator, and maximum allele count, were evaluated using 100 test samples consisting of one to five contributors and 0.5–0.016 ng template DNA amplified with Identifiler^® Plus and PowerPlex^® 16 HS. Results indicate that NOCIt was the most accurate method of the three, requiring 0.07 ng template DNA from any one contributor to consistently estimate the true number of contributors. Additionally, NOCIt returned repeatable results for 91% of samples analyzed in quintuplicate, while 50 single‐source standards proved sufficient to calibrate the software. The data indicate that computational methods that employ a quantitative, probabilistic approach provide improved accuracy and additional pertinent information such as the uncertainty associated with the inferred number of contributors.     

Introduction: the Political Consequences of Non-state Social Welfare in the Global South

Throughout the Global South, diverse non-state actors have historically played critical roles in enabling populations to meet their basic needs, whether by providing or mediating access to social benefits and programs. To date, little research explores non-state social welfare, particularly in the Global South, and existing studies tend to focus on technical and administrative concerns while neglecting the potential political ramifications. This introductory essay aims to conceptualize and theorize the politics of non-state social welfare. We highlight three dimensions of the political consequences of non-state social welfare, including the implications for state capacity, equity of access to social welfare, and experiences of citizenship. Based on this framework as well as the findings of the empirical contributions to the special issue, the essay concludes that non-state provision may pose more political challenges than proponents recognize, but its effects are ultimately contingent on the types of relationships between state and non-state providers.     

Describing intimate partner stalking over time: an effort to inform victim-centered service provision

Stalking has increasingly been the subject of legislation and research in the past 20 years. Within intimate partner violence, the context where it is most likely to occur, stalking predicts both greater danger and greater distress for the victim. However, research shows that practitioners are often unsure how to address stalking, and that the remedies available may not be effective. This longitudinal exploration of stalking focused on the experience of victims of intimate partner stalking and was conducted by Safe Horizon, an organization providing assistance to victims of violence and abuse in New York City. The sample of 82 women was interviewed monthly over 7 months, and the data were analyzed using growth curve models. We found that stalking decreased over time at a marginally significant level, and that change in stalking varied among participants. Perceived safety followed a similar pattern, increasing but not significantly, while stalking-related distress decreased significantly. The slopes of these variables were correlated, such that as stalking frequency decreased, perceived safety increased and distress decreased. Help-seeking was greater from court sources than victim services over the course of the study, but neither help source was related to a significant decrease in the stalking trajectory. According to victim report, orders of protection (OP) were helpful at some points and not at others. Implications of these results for offering victim-centered services are discussed.     

Public Eyewitness Confidence Can Be Influenced by the Presence of Other Witnesses

Four experiments were conducted to examine whether witnesses' public confidence ratings differ from their private ratings when there are social pressures to use confidence as an impression-management tool. In all four experiments, participants answered questions about a source event (a series of faces in the first three experiments and a simulated crime scene in the fourth). Half of the responses and confidence ratings were given privately and anonymously, and half were given publicly in front of one or more mock jurors. Two central findings emerged from the results. First, public confidence differed from private confidence only when there was more than one witness; when there were no other witnesses, public and private confidence were the same. Second, the direction of the change in public confidence in the multiple-witness settings was influenced by whether or not there was a possibility of being contradicted by the other witnesses. When there was no chance that the participants' responses could be contradicted, they raised their confidence ratings in public; when there was a chance that the other witnesses might contradict them, the participants lowered their public confidence ratings. The results are discussed in terms of self-presentation theory and implications for the legal system.