Does the IMF cause civil war? A comment

The global economic downturn has heightened concerns about intervention by global financial institutions and political stability. One prominently-published article purports to show that signing on to an IMF structural adjustment program (SAP) increases the risk of civil war, Hartzell et al. (International Organization 64:339–56, 2010). The authors claim that IMF SAPs push liberalization, which hurts people badly enough that they foment civil war. We advance the debate by critically examining their theoretical and empirical evidence, particularly questioning their crucial assumptions about the impact of IMF programs on the economic environment in terms of who actually wins and loses from liberalization and who might be in a position to rebel. Using their data, we find that signing on to an IMF program predicts the onset of a civil war negatively if one uses a lower threshold of 25 deaths when defining civil war. These results suggest that the operationalization of the IMF variable as well as the use of large-scale civil war (1,000 deaths and above) simply capture the effect of ongoing conflict rather than the effects of liberalization. After extending the time period under study and making only minor changes to operationalization, we find that at no time does IMF involvement successfully predict the onset of a civil war.     

Fingermark Evidence Evaluation Based on Automated Fingerprint Identification System Matching Scores: The Effect of Different Types of Conditioning on Likelihood Ratios

In recent studies, the evidential value of the similarity of minutiae configurations of fingermarks and fingerprints, for example expressed by automated fingerprint identification systems (AFIS), is determined by likelihood ratios (LRs). The paper explores whether there is an effect on LRs if conditioning takes place on specified fingers, fingerprints, or fingermarks under competing hypotheses: In addition, an approach is explored where conditioning is asymmetric. Comparisons between fingerprints and simulated fingermarks with eight minutiae are performed to produce similarity score distributions for each type of conditioning, given a fixed AFIS matching algorithm. Both similarity scores and LRs are significantly different if the conditioning changes. Given a common‐source scenario, “LRs” resulting from asymmetric conditioning are on average higher. The difference may reach a factor of 2000. As conditioning on a suspect's finger(print) is labor‐intensive and requires a cooperating suspect, it is recommended to just condition on the number of minutiae in the fingermark.     

Volume Determination of Fresh and Dried Bloodstains by Means of Optical Coherence Tomography

The volume of bloodstains found on crime scenes may help forensic investigators reconstruct the location and kinematics of bloodletting events, as stain size, volume, and impact velocity are related. Optical coherence tomography was used as a method to determine the volume and volume ratio of dried and fresh bloodstains on both glass and irregular surfaces or deposited with an impact velocity. The volume of blood drops deposited on smooth glass surfaces was measured within a deviation of 2%. This deviation increased for droplets on irregular surfaces or deposited with an impact velocity. The volume ratio of dried and fresh bloodstains was equal to 19–28% depending on the individual donor and on the use of an anticoagulant. Optical coherence tomography is a good method to determine the volume of fresh and dried bloodstains in laboratory conditions and allows accurate determination of the dry/fresh ratio.     

A Molecular Method to Correlate Bloodstains with Wound Site for Crime Scene Reconstruction

Bloodstain pattern analysis to determine the wound‐of‐origin of bloodstains is problematic with nonspecific patterns. In this proof‐of‐concept study, the authors examined a molecular approach to correlate bloodstains with injuries using the rat as a model. Specifically, investigations were conducted on the rat brain marker, rno‐miR‐124‐3p, with the QIAGEN miScript System and real‐time PCR analysis. Rno‐miR‐124‐3p was detected in brain homogenates diluted 100,000 times; in 3‐week‐old, room temperature stored, simulated brain–blood stains; and in bloodstains from head gunshot wounds collected with swabs and subsequently frozen for 9–18 months; however, rno‐miR‐124‐3p was not detected in whole blood. Proof‐of‐principle was demonstrated by the ability to distinguish bloodstains from a gunshot wound to the head versus bloodstains from a gunshot wound to the chest, by the testing of otherwise identical bloodstains from the two patterns for the presence of the marker. The results suggest a viable approach to a longstanding problem in casework.     

Ketoacidosis and Adrenocortical Insufficiency

We herein report an autopsy case involving a 27‐year‐old Caucasian woman suffering from chronic adrenocortical insufficiency with a background of a polyendocrine disorder. Postmortem biochemistry revealed pathologically decreased aldosterone, cortisol, and dehydroepiandrosterone levels in postmortem serum from femoral blood as well as decreased cortisol and 17‐hydroxycorticosteroid in urine. Decreased vitreous sodium and increased 3‐beta‐hydroxybutyrate and C‐reactive protein concentrations were observed. The cause of death was determined to be acute adrenocortical insufficiency. Fasting ketoacidosis was postulated to have precipitated the Addisonian crisis. Traumatic causes of death and third‐party involvement were excluded. The case highlights the importance of systematically performing exhaustive postmortem biochemical investigations to formulate appropriate hypothesis regarding the pathophysiological mechanisms involved in the death process.     

Early Repolarization,Acute Emotional Stress and Sudden Death

We herein report the case of a 36‐year‐old man who died suddenly after a fight with another man. Forensic investigations included unenhanced computed tomography, postmortem angiography, autopsy, histology, neuropathology, toxicology, and biochemistry and allowed a traumatic cause of death to be excluded. An electrocardiogram recorded some years prior to death revealed the presence of an early repolarization pattern. Based on the results of all investigations, the cause of death was determined to be cardiac arrhythmia and cardiac arrest during an emotionally stressful event associated with physical assault. Direct third party involvement, however, was excluded, and the manner of death was listed as natural. The case was not pursued any further by the public prosecutor.     

The Weak Government Thesis: Some New Evidence

Public Choice - This paper presents new evidence on the hypothesis that coalition governments will find it more difficult to keep their budgets in line after an adverse economic shock than do...     

The geopolitics of Brazilian soybeans

Soybean plays a major role in the development of Brazilian agribusiness, and in turn in Brazilian geopolitical power as well. It is a pillar of Brazil's insertion into a ‘new multi-polar world order’ as basis for much Brazilian land ownership in neighboring countries, for the extension of political influence in Africa, and it is especially important for balancing trade with Brazil's new primary commercial partner, China. Yet the US dollar and North Atlantic transnational companies still control global soybean markets and production technologies. In a context marked by booming but volatile commodity prices, food crises, riots and revolutions in food-importing countries, a global rush for farmland, and severe droughts and climate change, the soybean agribusiness in Brazil takes on new and crucial geopolitical significance. I trace the geopolitical role it has served in consolidating the ‘green revolution’ in Brazil, and raise questions about the intersection between agroindustrial markets and currencies: could agricultural commodities serve geopolitical functions (and thus contestation) similar to those ‘petro-dollars’ have served since the 1970s? These considerations show how the political ecology of soybean shapes and is shaped by inter-regional and global-scale processes, and reveals new directions for research on the emerging geopolitical landscape of our century.