False positive and false negative rates in self-reported intentions to offend: A replication and extension

Purpose

Studies of criminal decision making commonly rely on college students’ self-reported intentions to commit a hypothetical offense. The current study evaluates the predictive validity of these intentions to offend.

Methods

Undergraduate students (n = 726) read a fictitious but seemingly realistic newspaper article describing an illegal opportunity for acquiring digital music files, and then reported their intentions to act upon the opportunity. Afterward, participants’ real world attempts to follow-through on the opportunity were monitored covertly.

Results

Findings reveal that participants who reported weak intentions to offend typically refrained from the act, resulting in a low false negative rate. However, those who reported strong intentions to offend also typically refrained from the act, thereby resulting in a high false positive rate.

Conclusions

These findings suggest that while participants’ predictions of criminal abstention are generally accurate, their predictions of criminal involvement are more problematic. Such faulty intentions have important implications for research on criminal decision making.     

Prior problem behavior accounts for the racial gap in school suspensions

Purpose

A large body of empirical research finds a significant racial gap in the use of exclusionary school discipline with black students punished at rates disproportionate to whites. Furthermore, no variable or set of variables have yet to account for this discrepancy, inviting speculation that this association is caused by racial bias or racial antipathy. We investigate this link and the possibility that differential behavior may play a role.

Methods

Using data from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, Kindergarten Class (ECLS-K), the largest sample of school-aged children in the United States, we first replicate the results of prior studies. We then estimate a second model controlling for prior problem behavior.

Results

Replicating prior studies, we first show a clear racial gap between black and white students in suspensions. However, in subsequent analyses the racial gap in suspensions was completely accounted for by a measure of the prior problem behavior of the student – a finding never before reported in the literature.

Conclusions

These findings highlight the importance of early problem behaviors and suggest that the use of suspensions by teachers and administrators may not have been as racially biased as some scholars have argued.     

QUESTIONING SEQUENCES IN CANADIAN POLICE INTERVIEWS: CONSTRUCTING AND CONFIRMING THE COURSE OF EVENTS?

A content analysis of 19 Canadian police interviews with adult witnesses revealed that several of the interviewing strategies used by officers ran counter to the recommendations in the literature. Specifically, interviewers interrupted the witness more than was necessary, rarely employed any cognitive techniques to enhance memory recall and asked far more closed than open-ended questions. Further, in terms of the sequencing of questions, a pattern emerged across interviews that suggested that officers first “help” the witness construct the event and then, through a rapid sequence of “yes/no” questions, seek to confirm the account. We argue that this pattern of questioning may suggest that officers are pursuing an assumed version of events and that exploring interviews from a sequencing perspective may prove beneficial in identifying possible biased versions of events.     

Book notes

Jean‐Pierre Cabestan, Le système politique de la Chine Populaire (No. 2863 in the series Que sais‐je) Paris: Presses Universitaires de France, 1994. 127 pp. ISBN 2–13–046516–1.

Frederick C. Teiwes Politics and Purges in China: Rectification and the Decline of Party Norms 1950–1965 Armonk, NY and London: M.E. Sharpe, 1993. 593 pp. $70.00, ISBN 1–56324–226–5. Paperback $27.95, ISBN 1–56324–227–3.

Erroll Hodge Radio Wars: Truth, Propaganda and the Struggle for Radio Australia Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1995. 324 pp. £35.00. ISBN 0–521–47380 2.

Richard A. Baker (ed.) The Anzus States and Their Region: Regional Policies of Australia, New Zealand and the United States Westport CT and London: Praeger, 1994. 228 pp. £51.95. ISBN 0–275–94693–2.     

Populism and Downing Street E-petitions: Connective Action,Hybridity, and the Changing Nature of Organizing

This article explores ongoing debates about whether new media empowers individuals at the expense of formal organizations, and how the nature of organizations/organizing is changing. Focusing on Downing Street E-petitions, it presents a content analysis of over 33,000 accepted petitions, analyzing who or what ‘sponsored’ each petition alongside interviews with petition creators. The analysis finds a wide range of ‘affiliations’, from formal groups to personal information, though many formal groups chose not to use the platform. In apparent support of the populist position, and contradicting resource mobilization theories, individuals created 19 of the 20 most signed petitions. Bennett and Segerberg’s (2013) theory of connective action, and Chadwick’s theories of organizational hybridity (2007) and the hybrid media system (2013) inform a detailed qualitative analysis of how petitions were promoted, and the nature of organization that underpinned this. The analysis finds that organizational structure(s) underpinning successful individual petitions were complex, with extensive organizational hybridity and petitioners exploiting hybrid media logics. Connective action was also apparent, though this did not fit as easily with practice on Downing Street E-petitions.     

Deaths Involving Methylenedioxypyrovalerone (MDPV) in Upper East Tennessee

Two deaths involving 3, 4‐methylenedioxypyrovalerone (MDPV) are reported. MDPV is a synthetic cathinone stimulant found in “bath salts” with neurological and cardiovascular toxicity. Biological specimens were analyzed for MDPV by GC/MS and LC/MS. A White man was found dead with signs of nausea and vomiting after repeatedly abusing bath salts during a weekend binge. Femoral venous blood and urine had MDPV concentrations of 39 ng/mL and 760 ng/mL. The second fatality was a White man with a history of drug and bath salt abuse found dead at a scene in total disarray after exhibiting fits of anger and psychotic behavior. Femoral venous blood and urine had MDPV concentrations of 130 ng/mL and 3800 ng/mL. The blood and urine MDPV concentrations are within the reported recreational concentration ranges (blood 24–241 ng/mL and urine 34–3900 ng/mL). Both decedents’ deaths were attributed to relevant natural causes in a setting of MDPV abuse.     

From the Inside Out: Efforts by Homeless Women to Disrupt Cycles of Crime and Violence

The premise that childhood victimization is a risk factor for crime and violence in adulthood finds general support, though few agree that there is a direct causal relationship. Mediating factors and intervening variables are often studied. Rarely investigated, however, are the complex and difficult dynamics experienced by those enmeshed in these “cycles of violence.” In this study we explore the struggles of homeless women to disrupt patterns of violence in their lives. Using in-depth qualitative interviews, we illustrate how these women learn and understand that they are caught up in cycles of crime and violence and, to varying degrees, have made active efforts to disrupt them. However, we find that they have very few tools or resources with which this could be accomplished, which ultimately thwarts potentially successful efforts for lasting change while foregrounding deficiencies in systemic support.     

Swimming with the Tide: Adapting to Long-Term Imprisonment

Given the increasing number of prisoners serving life sentences in England and Wales, and the increasing average length of these sentences, it is surprising that so little attention has been paid to the experiences and effects of such sanctions. This article describes how prisoners serving very long sentences from an early age adapt over time to their circumstances. In particular, it focuses on the transition between the early and subsequent stages of such sentences, specifically, the ways that these prisoners adapt to the sentence, manage time, come to terms with their offense, shift their conception of control, make their sentence constructive, and find wider meaning in and from their predicament. Our argument is that most prisoners demonstrate a shift from a form of agency that is reactive to one that is productive, as they learn to “swim with”, rather than against, the tide of their situation.