The statistical variability of blood alcohol concentration measurements in drink-driving cases

Like many other places in the world, Hong Kong has drink-driving legislation which prohibits a driver from having in his blood alcohol exceeding a prescribed limit while in control of a motor vehicle. The accuracy of measuring this alcohol concentration is obviously of prime concern as an erroneous result can avert the administration of justice. The common practice is to deduct all errors from the measured value and compare the deducted value with the prescribed limit, so that the benefit of all errors of the measurement is given to the driver. It is therefore important for any laboratory responsible for measuring blood alcohol concentrations to identify and quantify all errors associated with the measurement. The present study examined 900 blood alcohol determinations carried out by the Hong Kong Government Laboratory (HKGL) on cases of suspected drink driving. The determinations were performed by 5 different analysts with two different sets of instruments during 1995-1997. Statistical analysis indicated that the instruments had no bearing on the random error or variability and that even though analyst was a significant factor on variability, the deviation from the mean so caused was only 0.3% and of no practical significance. When the systematic error introduced by the tolerance limits of the certified alcohol standards (purchased from the Laboratory of Government Chemists, UK) was taken into account, the total uncertainty (random plus systematic errors) of an alcohol determination at 99.5% confidence level was found to be 4%. It is recommended that laboratories engaged in blood alcohol determination should adopt similar statistical treatment of their analytical results to find out the error and to ensure that the results are independent of analyst and instrument used.     

An insurer's perspective on reform

Individual health insurance markets differ from state to state, and as a result approaches to individual market reforms need to be different. In evaluating approaches, policy makers need to remember that since the decision to purchase health insurance coverage is voluntary, the potential for adverse selection exists. In addition, rather than putting the focus of individual market reforms almost exclusively on access to health insurance for a small number of persons with high-cost health conditions, more attention needs to be put on how to decrease the number of uninsured persons. This includes making the premiums paid for individual health insurance 100 percent tax deductible, similar to those of employer-based health insurance. Finally, market reforms need to treat all types of coverage issued in the individual market the same, whether they are purchased direct for the insurer or through an out-of-state association.     

Statistical examination of hair color as a potential biasing factor in hair analysis

We review eight different data sets in this paper for the purposes of assessing the possibility that reported color of hair can produce a systematic bias in the interpretation of hair assays. We review studies or data sets that include heroin and its metabolites, cocaine and its metabolites, MDMA and its analogs, and amphetamine and methamphetamine. The studies have utilized a variety of different degrees of color categorization, ranging from the simple dichotomy of brown and black, to a high of 12 categories. The mean number of categories reported approaches 6 (mean = 5.875). There are a total of 2791 data points in this analysis. We utilize two major statistical techniques for assessing significance; one-way analysis of variance, and Tukey's Honestly Significant Difference procedure. In circumstances were only dichotomous contrasts are possible, one-way analysis of variance is used. In contrasts involving three or more categorical groups, Tukey's procedure is used. In circumstances where the homogeneity of group variances is not sustained by the Levene statistic, we use the Tamahane procedure, allowing an assessment that assumes unequal variances. The analysis of this data fails to discern a significant color effect. We speculate that it may be that variance is large in many domains affecting analyte recovery from hair. In large groups these variations tend to regress towards a typical or mean value. Thus the data here show that while there are group or aggregate differences in these 'typical' values, they are not great when considered in relation to the within-group variations which exist for those values. It is our view that color may play a role in the accumulation of drugs in hair, however it is likely to account for only a very small part of the complex process of drug accumulation.     

Hair analysis by using radioimmunoassay, high-performance liquid chromatography and capillary electrophoresis to investigate chronic exposure to heroin, cocaine and/or ecstasy in applicants for driving licences

The present paper describes an integrated diagnostic strategy to check the physical fitness of subjects, formerly users of illicit drugs, to obtain a driving license, after having quit their addiction. According to the Italian law, applicants for a driving license with a history of drug abuse must give evidence to have quit this behaviour and to show no risk of relapse in the future. To prove this, at our institute, they undergo medical examination, hair analysis and a urinalysis program on eight seriate samples, collected over about 40 days. About 700 subjects per year are investigated with this strategy. The hair samples are screened for opiates (morphine), cocaine and ecstasy, the most abused illicit substances in our region, by using commercial radioimmunoassays adopting cut-off levels of 0.1 ng/mg. All positive samples and about 10% of negatives are confirmed by high-performance liquid chromatography. Further confirmation of results can be carried out by capillary electrophoresis (and/or GC/MS or MS/MS). In 1998, the prevalence of positives for morphine, cocaine and ecstasy was 4.8, 11.3 and 2.6%, respectively. In this year, for the first time, the percentage of hair samples positive for cocaine was greater than that for opiates. The results of this integrated diagnostic strategy are presented and discussed, with particular emphasis on the comparison between hair analysis on a single sample and seriate urinalyses (on eight samples).     

A biomechanical study of the human vertebral artery with implications for fatal arterial injury

We studied the biomechanical behaviour of ring and strip specimens from along the length of 18 vertebral arteries taken from 16 subjects aged 28-90 years, in order to consider some of the factors which may play a role in vertebral artery rupture. The method was chosen to allow a comparison between circumferential distension (ring samples) and longitudinal extension, (strip samples). The samples were extended between the jaws of a tensile testing apparatus until the specimen broke and a number of biomechanical parameters were derived. These were the percentage extension to break, the tensile strength, Young's modulus and the peak load. There were a number of important findings. The vertebral artery was shown to be susceptible to longitudinal stretching with a number of strip samples breaking when extended by as little as 16-20%. The tensile strength and load at peak of the strip specimens were correspondingly lower than for the ring samples. Marked intersubject variations were shown for all these parameters and prominent changes in behaviour occurred along the vertebral artery. This study indicates that the artery may be susceptible to head and neck movements which cause the vessel to stretch, and intersubject variations in behaviour may be one important explanation for the marked differences in outcome which appear to exist in subjects who suffer broadly similar head and neck insults.     

Unusual infant death: dog attack or postmortem mutilation after child abuse?

An unusual form of fatal child abuse is reported in which investigations by the police and the medical examiner were able to distinguish blunt force head trauma followed by postmortem dismemberment from a fatal dog attack. A discussion of the approaches used to ascertain the correct diagnosis is presented, as well as an overview of dog attacks on humans.     

An analysis of the usefulness of specific stages in the pathologic investigation of sudden infant death

Retrospective analysis of autopsy findings in 60 infants who had been found unexpectedly dead in their cribs or beds in South Australia from 1994 to 1998 was undertaken to determine the diagnostic usefulness of individual stages in the postmortem investigation. Positive findings occurred in 2 of 43 scene examinations (3%), 2 of 60 external examinations (3%), 2 of 11 radiologic examinations (18%), 8 of 60 internal examinations (13%), 7 of 60 histologic examinations (12%), and 3 of 58 microbiologic examinations (5%). No positive findings were detected on toxicologic screening. Not every case underwent each diagnostic step. This gave alternative diagnoses to sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS) in 15 cases (25%). This study demonstrates an increase in the percentage of cases of unexpected infant death due to causes other than SIDS; it also shows the diagnostic yield of individual stages in the postmortem evaluation of such cases. Negative findings were important in giving validity to the diagnosis in the 45 cases that were ultimately designated as SIDS.