SPECIALIZATION IN VIOLENCE: EVIDENCE OF A CRIMINAL SUBGROUP*

This study examines the criminal arrest records of a Danish birth cohort of 28,884 men to test the hypothesis that specialization exists for violent offending. Property offending is included for comparison. Specialization in violence is found to exist for offenders with more than three arrests, and specialization in property offending, for offenders with fewer than four arrests. Knowledge of past violent offending is discussed as a potentially valuable part of the predictive equation of future violence.     

Change and Continuity in the Liberal Democrat General Election Campaign of 2005

This article analyses the Liberal Democrat general election campaign of 2005, with special attention to developments in the party between 2001 and 2005. It argues that there was significant change in policy during that period, towards an agenda emphasising decentralisation and 'tough liberalism'. However, this did not significantly alter the party's overall message from that of 2001, which remained focused on policies such as scrapping university tuition fees. Meanwhile, there was great continuity in campaign strategy and tactics, particularly because of the influence of the party's Chief Executive, Lord Rennard. Tactical innovations in 2005 stemmed from the party's success at fundraising, rather than any decision that new methods of campaigning were necessary. The article concludes with a critical assessment of the campaign, and examines the issues which are likely to arise in forthcoming debates on Liberal Democrat strategy, policy and leadership.     

The visibility of agricultural subsidies and market illusions in the Common Agricultural Policy: Some evidence from farmers' views in Germany, Portugal and the United Kingdom

Abstract.   This article demonstrates that the design and nature of agricultural support schemes has an influence on farmers' perception of their level of dependence on agricultural support. While direct aid payments inform farmers about the extent to which they are subsidised, indirect support mechanisms veil the level of subsidisation, and therefore they are not fully aware of the extent to which they are supported. To test this hypothesis, we applied data from a survey of 4,500 farmers in three countries: the United Kingdom, Germany and Portugal. It is demonstrated that indirect support, such as that provided through artificially high consumer prices, gives an illusion of free and competitive markets among farmers. This 'visibility' hypothesis is evaluated against an alternative hypothesis that assumes farmers have complete, or at least a fairly comprehensive level of, information on agricultural support schemes. Our findings show that this alternative hypothesis can be ruled out.     

Constitutional Change: A Note by the Bedside

The British constitution is undergoing major change although it tends to be carried out piecemeal and is often ignored. There are contradictory trends in what is happening. Some changes are deliberate major reforms which tend to disperse power and strengthen the rights of the individual against the State. Other changes are incidental by-products of other government policies, and tend in the other direction, towards the greater concentration of power in, and within, central government, for instance by the weakening of local government and the treatment of individual rights in legislation against terrorism. This second trend makes it all the more important that the checks and balances on the exercise of power by central government are effective. The main responsibility for ensuring this must rest with Parliament, backed up by the courts. A Civil Service Bill and perhaps a code of governance for central government would in their different ways be useful.     

Corporatism, Pluralism, and Swedish Interest Group Influence in Social Welfare Policymaking

Corporatism and pluralism predict different characteristics of interest groups; their environments are important in understanding the level of influence that these groups have. This article describes variables related to these theoretical approaches and tests them as determinants of two operationalizations of interest group influence, one objective and one reputational. Results of these tests on Swedish interest group information indicate that, although Sweden has usually been considered a model corporatist political system, the situation is more complicated, with some pluralist factors being quite important. The study suggests that interest group influence may be more objectively determinable than is usually believed.