The Geography of Insurgent Organization and its Consequences for Civil Wars: Evidence from Liberia and Sierra Leone

This article investigates the determinants of armed group organization and the downstream effects of organization on civil wars. It demonstrates that the interaction between geographical and technological factors influences the types of hierarchical organizations that armed groups develop. It then argues that variations in the types of hierarchies developed by armed groups have important consequences for principal-agent relations, which in turn affect groups' overall level of military effectiveness. Using evidence from field research conducted in Liberia and Sierra Leone, the model's plausibility is examined in comparative case studies of four armed groups that fought in those countries from 1989–2003.     

How do I vote the scoundrels out? Why voters might not punish corrupt politicians at the polls

While we frequently hope electoral democracy can serve as an important constraint on corruption, there are good reasons to think that such might not be the case. This paper analyzes two closely-related questions: should we expect voters to punish corrupt politicians or parties at the polls, and should we expect such influences to check corruption generally? While there have been clear-cut cases in which such punishments have been massive and decisive, they are much the exception. Indeed, a variety of factors having to do with corruption as a concept and as a political issue, the nature of competitive electoral politics, and more recent economic and political trends reshaping important aspects of liberal democracy, all point toward a pessimistic assessment. Ideas for changing that state of affairs are few, because the difficulties reside less at the level of fixable “problems” and more with the inherent workings of liberal political and economic systems. Efforts to improve the quality of news coverage and civic education, however, and any prospects for strengthening and deepening civil society, may hold out some hope for the longer term.     

A description of Gilan and Baku in 1874

General

Great Britain and the Origins of the Pacific War: A Study of British Policy in East Asia 1937–1941. By Peter Lowe. Clarendon Press, Oxford University Press, 1977. Pp. 318. Bibliog. Index. Appendices. £8.50.

Middle East

The Arabs. By Peter Mansfield. Allen Lane (Penguin Books Ltd.), London, 1976. Pp. 570. Index. £8.50.

The Ottoman Centuries: The Rise and Fall of the Turkish Empire. By Lord Kinross. Jonathan Cape, London 1977. Pp. 638. Maps. Illus. Bibliog. Index. £10.00.

Iran: An Economic Profile. By Jahangir Amuzegar. The Middle East Institute. Washington, D.C., 1977. Pp. 280. Bibliog. Index. $12.95.

Arabic and Islamic Garland: Historical, Educational and Literary Studies. Presented to Abdul‐Latif Tibawi by Colleagues, Friends and Students. The Islamic Cultural Centre, London. Pp. 239. Biog. Bibliog. £8.00.

The World of Islam: A Handbook for Teachers. By Richard Tames. Published by the Extramural Division, School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London, 1977. Pp. 229. Pref. Appendices. £2.00.

Diary of a Journey across Arabia. By G. Forster Sadleir. Falcon Press, Naples, Italy. Oleander Press, New York and Cambridge, England 1977. Pp. 161. Map. £8.00. Text taken from the original edition compiled by M. Houghton from the records of the Bombay Government and printed at the Byculla Press, Bombay, in 1866. The present reprint is preceded by a biographical note, pp. 16, by F. M. Edwards, taken from the Journal of the Royal Central Asian Society Vol. 44 (1957) by permission of the Royal Society for Asian Affairs.

South Asia

The Indian Political Parties: An Historical Analysis of Political Behaviour up to 1947. By B. B. Misra. Delhi, Bombay, Calcutta, Madras, Oxford University Press, 1976, London, 1977. Pp. 665. Bibliog. Index. £11.50.

Gandhi and Civil Disobedience: The Mahatma in Indian Politics 1928–34. By Judith M. Brown. Cambridge University Press 1977. Pp. xix + 414. £15.50.

Documents on Political Thought in Modern India: Vol. II. By A. Appadorai. Oxford University Press, Bom bay 1976, New York, London, 1977. Pp. 892. Index. £14.00.

Development Planning in Bangladesh. A Study in Political Economy. By Nurul Islam. C. Hurst and Company, London 1977. Pp. 267. Preface. Introd. Index. £8.50.

My Years in an Indian Prison. By Mary Tyler. London, Victor Gollancz, 1977. Pp. 191. Illus. £5.20.

The Raj, the Indian Mutiny and the Kingdom of Oudh, 1801–1859. By John Pemble. London, The Harvester Press Ltd. 1977. Pp. 303. Index. Bibliog. Illus. £10.95.

The Origins of Evil in Hindu Mythology. By Wendy Doniger O'Flaherty. Berkeley, Los Angeles and London, University of California Press, 1977. Pp. 411. Bibliog. Index. £11.25.

Indian Asia. By Philip Rawson. Elsevier‐Phaidon Press, 1977. Pp. 152. Illus. Gloss. Index. £4.50.

A New History of India. By Stanley Wolpert. London, Oxford University Press, 1977. Pp. 471. Maps. Preface. Bibliog. Index. £9.75.

Old Bungalows in Bangalore, South India. By Janet Pott in collaboration with Elizabeth Staley and Romola Chatterjee. Published by the author and available from 56 Addison Avenue, London W.11, 1977. Pp. 72. 85 photographs and illustrations. Measured drawings by John Sambrook. £3.50.

The Road to India. Guide to the Overland Routes to the East. By John Prendergast. John Murray, London, 1977. Pp. 206. Index. Map. £5.95.

India. By James Elliott. Batsford, London, 1977. Pp. 238. Map. Bibliog. Index. Illus. £4.95.

USSR

The Kingdom of Georgia. Notes of Travel in a Land of Women, Wine and Song. To which are appended Historical, Literary, and Political Sketches, Specimens of the National Music and a Compendious Bibliography. By Oliver Wardrop. London, Sampson Low, Marston, Searle, and Rivington. 1888. Reprinted 1977. London, Luzac. Pp. 202. Bibliog. Map. Illus. £8.50.

Central Asia

Great Britain and Chinese, Russian and Japanese Interests in Sinkiang, 1918–1934. By Lars‐Erik Nyman. Lund Studies in International History, 8. Esselte Studium Stockholm, 1977, Pp. 165. Maps. No price given.

Afghanistan. By Louis Dupree. Princeton University Press, 1973. Pp. xxiv + 760. Maps. Illus. Bibliog. Index. £19.95.

South‐east Asia

Southeast Asia and China ‐ the End of Containment. By Edwin W. Martin. Boulder, Colorado (Westview Press for Center for International Studies, Georgetown University), 1977. Pp. 114. Map. Introd. Appendix. Notes. $11.25.

Southeast Asia in International Politics, 1941–1956. By Evelyn Colbert. Ithaca &; London, Cornell University Press, 1977. Pp. 372. Introd. Bibliog. Index. £13.15.

Power Struggle in South‐East Asia. By Oey Hong Lee. Inter Documentation Company Ag., Zug, Switzerland, and London, 1976. Pp. 614. Bibliog. Index. Documentary appendices on microfiche. S.fr. 128.

The Huk Rebellion: A Study of Peasant Revolt in the Philippines. By Benedict J. Kerkvliet. Berkeley and London, University of California Press, 1977. Pp. 305. Tables and Maps. Preface. Gloss. Bibliog. Index. £12.00.

The District. A Study in Decentralization in West Malaysia. By J. H. Beaglehole. London, Oxford University Press, 1976. Hull Monographs on South‐East Asia 6. Pp. 117. Map. Bibliog. Index. £3.00 (soft cover).

Indonesia. By Donald W. Fryer and James C. Jackson. “Nations of the Modern World” series. Ernest Benn Ltd. London, and Westview Press, Boulder, Colorado, 1977. Pp. 284. Glossary. Bibliog. Illus. Index. $24.

Far east

China and the World since 1949. The impact of Independence, Modernity and Revolution. By Wang Gungwu. London and Basingstoke, Macmillan Press, 1977. Pp. 190. Preface. Introd. Notes. Bibliog. £5.95 (cloth) £2.95 (paper).

Mao Tse‐tung in the Scales of History. Edited by Dick Wilson. London, Cambridge University Press for the Contemporary China Institute Publications, 1977. Pp. xii + 331. £10.50 (hardback) £3.50 (paper).

A Memoir of Revolutionary China 1924–1941. By Ruth V. Hemenway. The University of Massachusetts Press, 1977. Pp. 216. Illus. Introd. Notes. $12.50.

Japan in the Muromachi Age. Edited by John W. Hall and Toyoda (Takeshi). University of California Press, Berkeley, Los Angeles and London, 1977. Pp. xviii + 358. Gloss. Index. Illus. Maps. £13.15 (cloth). £3.70 (paper).

Yukio Mishima on Hagakure: The Samurai Ethic in Modern Japan. Translated by Katharine Sparling. Souvenir Press, London 1977 (first published Basic Books, New York, 1977). Illus. Pp. 166. £4.95.     

Using Booking Data to Model Drug User Arrest Rates: A Preliminary to Estimating the Prevalence of Chronic Drug Use

Public policy is often concerned with the size and characteristics of special populations that are difficult to reach in household surveys. Chronic drug users, who often live outside conventional households, provide the illustration motivating this paper. An alternative to household surveys is to question chronic drug users where they congregate—jails, treatment programs, and shelters, for example. Using such opportunistic data for prevalence estimation raises difficult problems for statistical inference: Study subjects who arrive at the collection points cannot be deemed a random sample of the general population. However, if we could estimate the rates at which chronic drug users arrive at the collection points, then we could use those estimates to weight the sample to represent the population. This paper presents a modified Poisson mixture model used to estimate the stochastic process that accounts for how chronic drug users get arrested. It uses that model to estimate arrest rates for 38 counties using up to sixteen quarters of data from the Arrestee Drug Abuse Monitoring survey.

Identification of Protected Avian Species Using a Single Feather Barb*,†

Abstract: We report on the unambiguous identification of protected avian species from as little as one barb of a feather. Many avian species are protected by international agreements and national legislation, yet they are traded illegally because of their high value. Two sections of the avian mitochondrial genome were chosen to identify bird species, being a 561‐bp section of ND2 gene and a 921‐bp section of the ND5 gene. Two different DNA extraction methods were compared for their ability to reliably isolate sufficient DNA to be detected in a subsequent PCR. Using a commercial kit supplied by QIAGEN, a complete sequence was obtained from one barb for the ND2 gene, whereas two barbs were required to reliably sequence the 921‐bp section of the ND5 gene. The process worked on all species tested using feathers from archival museum specimens, resulted in minimal damage to the specimen and can readily be adopted by a forensic science laboratory.     

New directions in policing fraud: The emergence of the counter fraud specialist in the United Kingdom

Fraud and corruption in the public sector have become issues of increasing importance for the government in the United Kingdom. Numerous initiatives have emerged ranging from high profile publicity campaigns against benefit fraud and tax evasion to the establishment of specialist bodies, such as the NHS Counter Fraud and Security Management Service (NHSCFSMS). One of the most interesting developments, however, has been the emergence of the ‘counter fraud specialist (CFS)’ across central and local government, as well as the private sector. These are specially trained civilian personnel who are tasked to prevent, investigate and secure sanctions against fraudsters. They undertake common training packages and are accredited by the Counter Fraud Professional Accreditation Board (CFPAB). This paper first outlines the emergence of the CFS; then draws upon the results of recent survey data to discuss some of their characteristics. The paper also considers some of the main issues raised by the growth of the CFS including the possible emergence of an embryonic ‘fraud police’, the indirect ‘load shedding’ of fraud investigation and the governance of this new breed of policing personnel.     

Death expectancy

In this brief Viewpoint, the author argues that the common understanding of average life expectancy in any given country is an inappropriate measure in relation to development, since among AIDS-affected populations it fails to differentiate between significantly different life spans, depending on whether or not a person contracts the disease.     

ALLEGATIONS AND SUBSTANTIATIONS OF ABUSE IN CUSTODY‐DISPUTING FAMILIES1

In this study of 120 divorced families referred for child custody evaluations and custody counseling, multiple allegations of child abuse, neglect, and family violence were raised in the majority of cases. About half of the alleged abuse was substantiated in some way with one fourth involving abuse perpetrated by both parents. Different kinds of allegations were raised against mothers compared with fathers. Implications of these findings for social policy, family court interventions, and the provision of coordinated services within the community are discussed.