THE IMPACT OF ECONOMIC CONDITIONS ON ROBBERY AND PROPERTY CRIME: THE ROLE OF CONSUMER SENTIMENT*

Despite its long history in criminology, research on the relationship between macroeconomic conditions and rates of common crime remains limited. That is in part because many analysts doubt that any systematic relationship exists and in part because of disagreement with regard to the validity of the indicators typically used to measure economic conditions. We argue in this article that good theoretical reasons exist to expect macroeconomic effects on crime rates, but many theories imply that collective perceptions of economic hardship should have effects on crime that are independent of those of more “objective” economic indicators. To evaluate this argument, we examine the relationships between the Index of Consumer Sentiment and regional robbery, burglary, larceny, and motor vehicle theft rates in the United States between 1970 and 2003, which was a period of large swings in both consumer sentiment and instrumental crime. Controlling for several factors thought to influence temporal variation in crime rates, we find that consumer sentiment had significant effects on robbery and property crime rates over the period that were largely independent of the effects of unemployment and economic growth. We also find that consumer sentiment accounted for a sizable fraction of the crime decline during the 1990s and yields reasonably accurate predictions of changes in the four offenses in 2004 and in two of the four offenses in 2005. We conclude that the effects of collective economic perceptions should become an important focus of future research on crime trends.     

The Ideal Socio-Legal Order. Its "Rule of Law" Dimension

Abstract. The author aims at defining the borderlines of the concept "rule of law." This has been often inflated to encompass several dimensions of an ideal legal order. The author on the contrary believes that the "rule of law" ought to be a "thin" ideal. As a matter of fact, when the "rule of law" signifies almost any dimension of an ideal legal order, it comes to stand for nothing essential in particular. Deflation is then advocated for the rehabilitation of the normative content of the "rule of law." This means that the "rule of law" should be defined as a concept covering only some well delimited dimensions of an ideal legal order.     

Market-Oriented Regulation of Environmental Problems in the Netherlands

Two functioning regulatory tax programs in The Netherlands indicate certain conditions under which such frequently-advocated but infrequently-adopted regulatory strategies can be successfully implemented. A flat fee on oxygen-demanding substances in industrial effluents, introduced in 1970, has been very successful, stimulating a 90% reduction in pollution and a search for cost-effective abatement measures. However, a recently-enacted law aimed at agricultural pollution, using a combination of direct controls and taxes on polluting inputs, has led to resistance and is not likely to be very successful. Based on these programs, regulatory taxes seem more likely to be politically and technically feasible when (a) emissions can be monitored economically; (b) the relation between emissions and environmental harm is relatively uniform and predictable; (c) implementing agencies have the technical competence and strong political and economic incentives to monitor and tax strictly; (d) the regulatory taxes apply uniformly to all sources of pollution; (e) economic efficiency is strongly valued in environmental policymaking.     

PERSONALITY THEORY AND JUDGING: A Proposed Theory of Self-Esteem and Judicial Policy-Making

Although a variety of explanatory models have been used in recent years to explain and describe individual and aggregate judicial policy-making, little attention has been devoted to how a judge's personality may affect his or her policy choices on the bench. In fact, psychological models are important for understanding twentieth-century jurisprudence as well as for conceptualizing the conditions under which an individual decision maker will exercise policy-making discretion. This article uses a theory of self-esteem to propose how a judge's personality configuration is related to those role orientations affecting decisional outcomes. The authors also discuss how differential levels of self-esteem may affect a judge's sentencing policy.     

LIFE‐COURSE DESISTERS? TRAJECTORIES OF CRIME AMONG DELINQUENT BOYS FOLLOWED TO AGE 70*

Linking recently collected data to form what is arguably the longest longitudinal study of crime to date, this paper examines trajectories of offending over the life course of delinquent boys followed from ages 7 to 70. We assess whether there is a distinct offender group whose rates of crime remain stable with increasing age, and whether individual differences, childhood characteristics, and family background can foretell long‐term trajectories of offending. On both counts, our results come back negative. Crime declines with age sooner or later for all offender groups, whether identified prospectively according to a multitude of childhood and adolescent risk factors, or retrospectively based on latent‐class models of trajectories. We conclude that desistance processes are at work even among active offenders and predicted life‐course persisters, and that childhood prognoses account poorly for long‐term trajectories of offending.     

TRIAL COURTS' RESPONSES TO SUPREME COURT POLICY CHANGES

This is an exploratory study focusing on the response of federal district courts to Supreme Court changes in three policy areas: economic regulation, civil liberties, and criminal justice. An analysis of federal district court opinions published in the Federal Supplement before and after the Supreme Court decisions announcing the policy changes indicated that opinion-writing patterns of federal district judges changed in a manner consistent with the Supreme Court's new direction. Further study of the federal district courts' role in the policy process is recommended and suggestions for such research are made.     

IMPRISONMENT LENGTH AND POST‐PRISON EMPLOYMENT PROSPECTS

This study considers the relationship between imprisonment length and employment outcomes. The data are a unique prospective, longitudinal study of Dutch pretrial detainees (N = 702). All subjects thus experience prison confinement of varying lengths, although the durations are relatively short (mean = 3.8 months; median = 3.1 months). This contrasts with prior research that was limited to the study of American prison sentences spanning an average of 2 years. These data thus fill a gap in the empirical base concerning short‐term confinement, which is the norm in the United States (e.g., jail incarceration) and other Western countries. Using a comprehensive array of pre‐prison covariates, a propensity score methodology is used to examine the dose–response relationship between imprisonment length and a variety of employment outcomes. The results indicate that, among prison lengths less than 6 months in duration, longer confinement is largely uncorrelated with employment. In contrast, among spells in excess of 6 months, longer imprisonment length seems to worsen employment prospects.