AN EXPLICIT TEST OF PLEA BARGAINING IN THE “SHADOW OF THE TRIAL”

Bargaining in the “shadow of the trial,” which hinges on the expectations of trial outcomes, is the primary theory used by noncriminologists to explain variation in the plea discount given to defendants who plead guilty. This study develops a formal mathematical representation of the theory and then presents an empirical test of the theory using an innovative online survey with responses to a hypothetical case from 1,585 prosecutors, defense attorneys, and judges. The key outcomes are the probability that the defendant will be convicted at trial, the sentence for the defendant if convicted, and the best plea that the respondent would accept or offer. Variation in the outcomes is created through experimental variation in the information presented to the respondents. Structural regression models are estimated to fit the formal theoretical models, and the instrumental variables method is used to correct for measurement error in the estimate for probability of conviction. The data support the basic shadow model, with minor modifications, for only prosecutors and defense attorneys. Controlling for the characteristics of the individual actors and their jurisdictions adds explanatory value to the model, although these control variables did not affect the key coefficients from the shadow model.     

CRIMINAL GROUP EMBEDDEDNESS AND THE ADVERSE EFFECTS OF ARRESTING A GANG'S LEADER: A COMPARATIVE CASE STUDY

Although law enforcement agencies arrest criminal group leaders to dismantle organized crime, few studies have assessed whether such interventions produce adverse effects. Through a mixed‐method comparative case study of the Latin Kings and 22 Boys street gangs in Chicago, this article examines the consequences of arresting a gang's leader. Using violent crime data, I show that a spike in violent crime took place in the first month after the arrest of the 22 Boys gang leader. In contrast, the arrest of the Latin Kings gang leader produced no change in violent crime. Using several qualitative data sources, I show that the arrest of the 22 Boys gang leader temporarily led to the gang's withdrawal from its territory, which spurred violent aggression from rival gangs in adjacent territories. In contrast, the Latin Kings gang continued its operations because the gang's prison leaders quickly appointed new leadership. The results suggest that criminal group embeddedness (or the social relations between criminal groups) can contribute to adverse effects in interventions targeting gang or other criminal group leaders.     

Modernization of Terror: The Transformation of Stalin's NKVD, 1934–1941

A defector's Russian barbecues

Edward Lee Howard: Safe House: The Compelling Memoirs of The Only CIA Spy to Seek Asylum in Russia. National Press Books, Bethesda, Maryland, 1995, 299 pp., $23.95.

The Comintern's U.S. legion — I Stalin's American division

Harvey Klehr, John Earl Haynes and Fridrikh Igorevich Firsov: The Secret World of American Communism. Yale University Press, New Haven, Conn., 1995, 348 p., $25.00.

Arcane no more

Roy Godson: Dirty Tricks and Trump Cards: U.S. Covert Action and Counterintelligence. Brassey's, Washington, DC, 1995, 337 pp., $24.95.

Chiang's aide keeps mum

Sidney H. Chang and Ramon H. Myers, eds.: The Storm Clouds Clear Over China: The Memoir of Ch ‘en Li‐fu. The Hoover Institution Press, Stanford, Calif., 1994, 359 p., $24.95.     

FAMILY,ACQUAINTANCE, AND STRANGER HOMICIDE: ALTERNATIVE PROCEDURES FOR RATE CALCULATIONS*

This paper describes the extent of missing data within the Supplementary Homicide Report (SHR), collected as part of the Uniform Crime Reporting Program of the FBI. The yearly SHR provides coded information on the victim, the offender, and the circumstances of all reported homicides in the United States. Thus, the data allow the computation of specific kinds of homicide rates, such as those involving family members, acquaintances, and strangers. However, missing data within reported events, primarily on offender characteristics and thus the victim/offender relationship, present a serious obstacle to the accurate calculation of such rates. The authors propose computational procedures designed to compensate for missing data and empirically evaluate the impact of these procedures on comparative analyses of homicide rates for cities, metropolitan areas, and states.     

THE SOCIAL FUND AS AN EXERCISE IN RESOURCE ALLOCATION

The social fund is the latest attempt to cope with the exceptional needs sometimes experienced by people in receipt of social assistance. It is also the first occasion when resource allocation decisions have been located centre-stage in a policy area that, hitherto, has been primarily demand-led. The social fund, which is eventually to be cash-limited, is allocated between over 400 Department of Social Security ( dss ; formerly Department of Health and Social Security, dhss ) local offices. The article describes how the 1988/9 budget was fixed and allocated between local offices, considers some of the problems that policymakers faced when devising the allocation criteria and examines the territorial redistribution inherent in the chosen strategy and which may or may not have been intended.     

A Humanist Foundation for Restitution

Abstract
This paper makes a case for an ethical underpinning for restorative justice. This approach is developed from a neo-Aristotelian perspective. It adapts the conceptual framework of Alasdair MacIntyre for the articulation and resolution of epi-stemological crises in traditions of enquiry, to the task of providing a critical and analytic framework for considering the crisis of rationale and practice in the contemporary criminal justice-penal archipelago. The author argues that Restitution, conceived in neo-Aristotelian terms, provides a resolution of that crisis. Finally, he foreshadows a debate to be had between the neo-Aristotelian position, and that of Critical Theory on the issue of legitimizing Restitution.     

AN EMPIRICAL TEST OF GENERAL STRAIN THEORY*

This paper tests Agnew's (1992) general strain theory (GST) of crime and delinquency. GST argues that strain occurs when others (1) prevent or threaten to prevent you from achieving positively valued goals, (2) remove or threaten to remove positively valued stimuli that you possess, or (3) present or threaten to present you with noxious or negatively valued stimuli. The impact of such strain on delinquency is said to be conditioned by several variables, such as association with delinquent peers and self-efficacy. Data from a sample of 1,380 New Jersey adolescents provide qualified support for the theory; strain measures of the type described above have a relatively substantial effect on delinquency and drug use. Further, the effect of these strain measures is conditioned by delinquent peers and self-efficacy, as predicted by GST.     

A Critical Analysis of the Changing Concept of Criminal Responsibility

By critically examining the concept of criminal responsibility we learn how the concept has undergone three major transformations. The changes are illuminated by focusing on structural transformations underlying legal theory and changes in the application of legislation and case law. Attention is also directed to the changing rhetoric of legitimation associated with each transformation.