Talking politics: Perils and promise

Abstract.  In its recent 'deliberative' turn, democratic theory has forgotten a conventional wisdom, once widely appreciated, that there is much in politics that is better not discussed. In this article, the author catalogues what topics might be deemed 'politically undiscussable', and why, as a first step toward showing how and to what extent talking about such matters might help or hinder their resolution. One important way discussion helps is by information-pooling to establish the truth of the matter. Even where that is not a viable aspiration, discussion might nonetheless serve a 'premise-revealing' function, showing one another that we are reasonable agents and thus helping to desensitize contentious issues.     

Party actors and party change: Does factional dominance matter?

Abstract. Other works have asked whether parties matter; this article asks whether parties' dominant factions matter. Special focus is placed on whether change in dominant faction or coalition within the party tends to produce other significant party change, and under what circumstances. Three specific hypotheses are developed and tested, one involving motivation for change and the other two involving 'resources' which are necessary to make dramatic change possible. Empirical analysis rests upon original data covering seven changes in dominant faction and several dimensions of party change within five parties in the United Kingdom and Germany for the period 1950 to 1990. The authors conclude that not all of the hypothesized factors have equal impact on degree of party change, with ability of the newly dominant faction to control its coalition being primary.     

A THEORY OF CRIME RESISTANCE AND SUSCEPTIBILITY*

The “causes of crime” research has up to this point focused on those events and conditions that push or pressure individuals into crime (strains), that pull or attract individuals to crime (social learning for crime), and that restrain individuals from responding to pressures and attractions with crime (controls). Work in several areas, however, has suggested that the response to the pressures for and attractions to crime is not simply a function of controls. It is also a function of the individual's resistance or susceptibility to the events and conditions described by strain and social learning theories. Those high in resistance are less likely to experience these criminogenic events and conditions as pressures for or attractions to crime, whereas those high in susceptibility are more likely. Resistance and susceptibility are a function of factors that influence the perception and interpretation of criminogenic events and conditions, the emotional reaction to them, and the behavioral inclinations prompted by them. These factors include negativity, pleasure and sensation seeking, conventional efficacy and perceived social support, and general sensitivity to the environment. With certain notable exceptions, these factors have been neglected in mainstream crime research, but they have the potential to improve the explanation and prediction of crime substantially.     

AGE,PERIOD, AND COHORT EFFECTS ON DEATH PENALTY ATTITUDES IN THE UNITED STATES, 1974–2014

In this article, we further the understanding of both changes in public opinion on capital punishment in the United States and changes in the factors associated with public opinion on the death penalty. Support for the death penalty may be motivated by events happening during specific time periods, and it can vary across birth cohorts as a result of cohort‐specific socialization processes, demographic changes, and formative events that are specific to each generation. An explication of the sources of and variation in death penalty attitudes over time would benefit from the accounting for the age of the respondent, the year of the survey response, and the birth cohort of the respondent. We improve on previous research by using multiple approaches including hierarchical age–period–cohort models and data from the General Social Survey (N = 41,474) to examine changes in death penalty attitudes over time and across birth cohorts. The results showed curvilinear age effects, strong period effects, and weak cohort effects on death penalty support. The violent crime rate explained much of the variation in support for the death penalty across periods. The examination of subgroup differences suggests that support for the death penalty is becoming concentrated among Whites, Protestants, and Republicans.     

U.S. ATTORNEYS AND SUBSTANTIAL ASSISTANCE DEPARTURES: TESTING FOR INTERPROSECUTOR DISPARITY*

An important and highly discretionary component of the federal sentencing guidelines is the downward departure for providing substantial assistance. Critics charge that the substantial assistance departure, which requires a motion by the prosecutor, may produce the type of unwarranted sentencing disparity that the guidelines were intended to eliminate. Research reveals, for example, that jurisdictional variations are evident in the use of substance assistance departures (Johnson, Ulmer, and Kramer, 2008; Nagel and Schulhofer, 1992), and that the likelihood of receiving the departure is affected by legally irrelevant offender characteristics, which include race, ethnicity, and gender (Mustard, 2001). The purpose of this article is to extend this research by exploring the degree to which decisions regarding substantial assistance departures vary across prosecutors. Using data on offenders sentenced in three U.S. district courts and a multilevel modeling strategy, we investigate whether interprosecutor disparity exists in the likelihood of substantial assistance departures and in the criteria that prosecutors use in deciding whether to file a motion for a substantial assistance departure. Findings indicate that significant interprosecutor variation remains after taking into account offender characteristics, case characteristics, and the district in which the case is adjudicated.     

Hung Parliaments and the Challenges for Westminster and Whitehall: How to Make Minority and Multiparty Governance Work (with Commentaries by Turnbull,Beith, Evans and Crick)

The return of a hung parliament at the 2010 general election is a serious possibility. But due to Westminster's limited recent experience of parliaments under ‘no overall control’ there is little institutional memory in Whitehall or Westminster, and even less public understanding, of what the implications would be. This article sets out to analyse the principal challenges that would be faced by government, opposition, parliament and the media in the event of a hung parliament. Drawing on experience from Canada, New Zealand and Scotland, we discuss the difficulties that may arise during the immediate government formation process and in the course of making minority or multiparty governance work on an ongoing basis. We conclude that a hung parliament need not undermine political stability or effective governance, but that all actors would need to adapt their behaviour and should therefore prepare carefully for this eventuality.