POLICE PRODUCTIVITY AND CRIME RATES: 1973-1992*

According to the Uniform Crime Reports, violent crime rates increased dramatically over the past two decades. National Crime Victimization Survey data, on the other hand, indicate that the rates of violent crime remained relatively stable or dropped during this period. Which series provides a “correct” estimate of crime-rate trends is of more than academic interest. Highly publicized statistics on crime trends influence the public's concerns about crime and the decisions of policymakers both directly through their own perceptions of crime trends and indirectly through demands by the general public to control crime. This article compares these two major series on trends in violent crime rates in the United States for the period 1973–1992, with the goal of assessing the extent to which they measure the same underlying phenomenon: fluctuations in violent crime rates. The series are related (but not strongly). My conclusion, with some reservation, is that changes in law enforcement agencies rather than changes in the rates of violent crime incidents have created the upward trend in UCR violent crime rates during the past two decades.     

COMPROMISED POLICE LEGITIMACY AS A PREDICTOR OF VIOLENT CRIME IN STRUCTURALLY DISADVANTAGED COMMUNITIES*

This study examined whether indicators of compromised police legitimacy explained variations in violent crime within New York City police precincts from 1975 to 1996. Integrating models of urban cultural attenuation and procedural justice, the study hypothesized that variations in patterns of police misconduct and over/under policing (the indicators of police legitimacy) would predict variations in violent crime rates of communities characterized by concentrated structural disadvantage. Using a panel design and controlling for the relevant ecology of crime factors and spatial autocorrelation, the study found that in communities characterized by high disadvantage, incidents of police misconduct predicted variations in violent crime; in communities characterized by extreme disadvantage, both indicators of compromised police legitimacy (misconduct and over policing) predicted variations in violent crime. The study found no significant relationships between the indicators of police legitimacy and violent crime in communities of low disadvantage. Findings support emerging arguments that emphasize the importance of formal institutions of social control in the most structurally disadvantaged communities (that is, those often subjected to cultural attention) and suggest implications for the ecology of crime model and police accountability.     

PERCEPTUAL DETERRENCE AMONG ACTIVE RESIDENTIAL BURGLARS: A RESEARCH NOTE*

The research reported here is based on a comparison of active residential burglars and a matched control group regarding their willingness to commit a burglary at varying levels of certainty of arrest, severity of penalty, and anticipated reward. Initial analyses revealed that few controls were willing to offend regardless of risk, penalty, or reward and that offenders were not influenced by penalty on its own. Consequently, responses of the offenders only were further analyzed in relation to the impact of risk, penalty, and reward. The results of a logit analysis indicated that both risk of being caught and prospect of increased gain had a significant influence on the offenders' decision making.     

BUSINESS CYCLES AND STREET CRIME

This study examines the influence of business cycle fluctuations on street crime in the conceptual framework of Cantor and Land's(1985) seminal work distinguishing between opportunity and motivation effects. The analysis contributes to the literature three ways. First, we use cross‐section/time series data, which has several important advantages over simple time‐series or cross‐section data of previous studies. Second, it introduces a new and broader measure of business cycle conditions, one that more faithfully captures the logic of Cantor and Land's framework than previous measures do. Third, it focuses on the large decline in street crime of the 1990s, a central issue facing criminologists. Statistical models indicate that the strong economy of the 1990s reduced all four index property crimes and robbery by reducing criminal motivation. Business cycle growth produced no significant opportunity effect for any of the crimes studied.     

The Proposed Framework for Environmental Strict Liability in Europe: The Polluter Pays…Possibly

On January 23, 2002, the European Union took a bold step toward developing a common approach to environmental liability, one that imposes a strict liability standard aimed at ensuring that the “polluter pays”. However, opinion is divided both on the merits of this standard and on the approach taken at the EU level. This article examines how the EU's proposal and the imposition of environmental strict liability may herald a new era for environmental experts, insurers, and lawyers across Europe.     

THE IMPACT OF ECONOMIC CONDITIONS ON ROBBERY AND PROPERTY CRIME: THE ROLE OF CONSUMER SENTIMENT*

Despite its long history in criminology, research on the relationship between macroeconomic conditions and rates of common crime remains limited. That is in part because many analysts doubt that any systematic relationship exists and in part because of disagreement with regard to the validity of the indicators typically used to measure economic conditions. We argue in this article that good theoretical reasons exist to expect macroeconomic effects on crime rates, but many theories imply that collective perceptions of economic hardship should have effects on crime that are independent of those of more “objective” economic indicators. To evaluate this argument, we examine the relationships between the Index of Consumer Sentiment and regional robbery, burglary, larceny, and motor vehicle theft rates in the United States between 1970 and 2003, which was a period of large swings in both consumer sentiment and instrumental crime. Controlling for several factors thought to influence temporal variation in crime rates, we find that consumer sentiment had significant effects on robbery and property crime rates over the period that were largely independent of the effects of unemployment and economic growth. We also find that consumer sentiment accounted for a sizable fraction of the crime decline during the 1990s and yields reasonably accurate predictions of changes in the four offenses in 2004 and in two of the four offenses in 2005. We conclude that the effects of collective economic perceptions should become an important focus of future research on crime trends.     

The Ideal Socio-Legal Order. Its "Rule of Law" Dimension

Abstract. The author aims at defining the borderlines of the concept "rule of law." This has been often inflated to encompass several dimensions of an ideal legal order. The author on the contrary believes that the "rule of law" ought to be a "thin" ideal. As a matter of fact, when the "rule of law" signifies almost any dimension of an ideal legal order, it comes to stand for nothing essential in particular. Deflation is then advocated for the rehabilitation of the normative content of the "rule of law." This means that the "rule of law" should be defined as a concept covering only some well delimited dimensions of an ideal legal order.