RELATIVE COHORT SIZE AND AGE-SPECIFIC CRIME RATES: AN AGE-PERIOD-RELATIVE-COHORT-SIZE MODEL*

The compositional effects of relatively large young-adult cohorts on the total rate of serious crimes is well established. The more subtle effect of relative cohort size on age-specific crime rates, suggested by Richard Easterlin, is more controversial. The literature contains no adequate test of Easterlin's hypothesis as it relates to crime. To provide an adequate test of Easterlin's theory, this study includes age-specific rates and measures of relative cohort size and controls for age and period in an age-period-relative-cohort-size model. Using arrest data from the Uniform Crime Reports (Part I crimes) for the years 1960, 1965, 1970, 1975, 1980, and 1985, the analysis provides support for Easterlin's theory for property crimes, that is, for robbery, burglary, and larceny (but not for motor vehicle theft). Though these relationships were small in comparison to those between age or period and age-specific crime rates, they were generally statistically significant and were replicated with data from 1962, 1967, 1972, 1977, 1982, and 1987. The relationships between relative cohort size and assaultive crimes provided little consistent support for Easterlin's theory.     

ON THE USE OF PANEL RESEARCH DESIGNS AND RANDOM EFFECTS MODELS TO INVESTIGATE STATIC AND DYNAMIC THEORIES OF CRIMINAL OFFENDING

There is a long-standing debate in criminology about the relative impact of static versus dynamic factors on criminal behavior. Researchers interested in estimating the impact of dynamic factors like prior offending or association with delinquent peers on criminal offending must control for static factors like intelligence, family background, or self-control, which could plausibly be correlated with criminal offending and the dynamic factor itself. Unfortunately, as a practical matter, it is not possible to observe all of these static factors. Statisticians and econometricians have shown that it is possible to identify the collective effect of static factors even though they cannot be observed. To achieve this objective, however, it is necessary to account for stable, unobserved individual characteristics through the use of "fixed-effect" or "random-effect" estimation. Criminologists often use random-effect estimators in these situations. We describe some of the assumptions that are necessary to develop valid inferences when time-varying covariates are used. Then, we use simulation evidence and an empirical application to show that bias can result when they are violated.     

LOW SELF-CONTROL AND OPPORTUNITY: TESTING THE GENERAL THEORY OF CRIME AS AN EXPLANATION FOR GENDER DIFFERENCES IN DELINQUENCY*

This research tests Gottfredson and Hirschi's general theory of crime as an explanation for gender differences in the delinquency of approximately 2,000 Canadian secondary school students. Separate psychological factors, including a preference for risk seeking, impulsivity, temper, present oriented, and carelessness, are used as measures of self-control, and additional measures of the construct are taken from the frequency of self-reported smoking and drinking. Elements of delinquent opportunity are controlled for by including measures of parental/adult super-vision. These measures and their interactions are used to predict self-reported general delinquency, property offenses, violence, and drug offenses. Results provide partial support for the general theory, revealing relationships between measures of self-control and delinquency that vary by magnitude across genders and for different offense types. Implications for the generality of the theory are discussed.     

Obama, China and Wishful Thinking About American Jobs

Thanks to the draining effects of the Iraq war and the financial meltdown emanating from Wall Street, a powershift away from American dominance is taking place. Caught between a rising China and an America in relative decline, the new leadership in Japan is recalibrating its post-World War II relationships. The G-20 has usurped the role once played by the G-8 as the governing committee of globalization. And the symbiotic coupling of Chimerica, born out of the credit bubble built up over the past two decades, is being put to the test.
In this section, the new prime minister of Japan, the president of the European Union, the president of Brazil and a leading economic historian assess these shifts.     

THE LIMITATIONS OF PUBLIC MANAGEMENT NETWORKS

With regard to public management network theory development, among the most important issues that remain is a recognition of the limitations of networks. Networks often find reasonable solution approaches, but then run into operational, performance, or legal barriers that prevent the next action step. Networks face challenges in converting solutions into policy energy, assessing internal effectiveness, surmounting the inevitable process blockages, mission drift, and so on. While research on network management continues unabated, it is necessary to consider how networks are limited and challenged, and how/when these limitations can be overcome.