HIERARCHICAL MANAGEMENT MONITORING: A Regional Data Collection System in Delinquency

We describe a systematic way of collecting and organizing information on juvenile delinquency. Monthly data are collected from agencies such as police, courts, and corrections, by county and city. These data are aggregated into figures for different levels of administrative responsibility (such as counties, districts, areas, states, and region as a whole). Trends in monthly values are automatically detected, and sudden changes in rates are signaled. Agencies at each administrative level receive appropriate feedback of data on rates, trends, and signals.     

Cycles of the third kind

Abstract. This paper delineates three kinds or senses of the cycle concept as used in social science theory and research. Cycles of the weak or first kind merely refer to fluctuations or state changes. Cycles of the moderate or second kind refer to fluctuations with some constant periodicity in fact or in principle. Cycles of the strong or third kind have several analytical properties that require explanation. I argue that the term cycle should be reserved for cycles of the second or third kinds and that the terms fluctuation or alternation should be used for cycles of the first kind. The paper concludes with some comments on sources of resistance to the cycle concept.     

Certainty, Severity, and Skyjacking

A central issue in the controversy surrounding the death penalty is the question of deterrence. Specifically, does the additional severity of capital punishment over life imprisonment serve to deter potential criminals? I attempt to deal with this question by separating the effects of severity of punishment from those of certainty of punishment by examining various woys in which these factors have been manipulated in the attempt to curb the incidence of skyjacking. I conclude that increasing the certainty of punishment results in a decrease in crime, whereas increasing the severity does not, in effect arguing against the necessity of the death penulty.     

THE SIZE OF THE “CRIMINAL POPULATION”: THE PREVALENCE AND INCIDENCE OF ADULT ARREST*

The recent emphasis in criminological theory and research on “chronic offenders” assumes that involvement in crime is concentrated among a small group of offenders rather than being widespread in the population. To address this question, this study employs a longitudinal data base on criminal histories to estimate the prevalence of arrest—defined as the proportion of a population ever arrested—and the incidence of arrest—defined as the number of arrests incurred by those ever arrested—for an age cohort of young adults between the ages of 18 and 29. The results show that being arrested is a relatively common experience for young adults: nearly one-quarter of the entire cohort and one-third of the males in the cohort were arrested at least once. One of six males and two of five black males were arrested for an index offense. The data on incidence reveal the presence of a subset of “chronic offenders” who are responsible for a disproportionate number of arrests. However, defined in terms of three or more arrests for any offense, their numbers are smaller, but the data suggest it may be difficult to distinguish “chronic offenders” from “one-time” offenders because 60% do not recidivate. These findings suggest that the current preoccupation with chronic offenders may obscure the broader social structural factors that cause very large segments of the population to come into conflict with the law.