TIME AGGREGATION AND TIME LAG IN MACRO-LEVEL DETERRENCE RESEARCH*

Recent arguments in research on individual-level deterrence suggest that the effect of perceived sanction risk on illegal behavior might occur over a shorter time period than the yearly lags typically incorporated in panel studies. This study raises the same issue for macro-level deterrence research by suggesting that panel studies using yearly data might have failed to capture the deterrent effect. The analysis uses ARIMA models with data aggregated monthly, quarterly, and semiannually to estimate the reciprocal effects between arrests and crimes for robbery, burglary, larceny, and auto theft in Oklahoma City from 1967 through 1989. No effect of crimes on arrests is found, but significant effects of arrests on crimes appear for three of the four offenses in the shorter temporal aggregations. The results suggest a need to reconsider conclusions based on panel studies that have used time aggregations and time lags that might be too long to uncover deterrent effects.     

A Moral Appeal for Taxpayer Compliance: The Case for a Mass Media Campaign*

This paper examines the ability of the mass media to enhance compliance with the law by the use of moral appeals. Drawing on the moral development literature and the literature of mass communication effects, we set forth a model for designing mass media campaigns directed at improving compliance with the law. Tax compliance is the issue we analyze. While we determine that no appeal, however well-crafted, is expected to reform all tax offenders, and that some approaches are likely to produce less rather than more compliance, we identify hallmarks of a potentially successful appeal.     

After Bagehot: Rethinking the Constitution

'Rethinking the constitution' surveys the political and cultural impact of Bagehot's 1867 strategy for the survival of an elitist state in a democracy. Also looks at the recent erosion of the conditions for Bagehot, and asks what the next major reinterpretation of the constitution will be. Assesses Gordon Brown's desire to make the constitution democratic while at the same time bolstering national identity and pursuing free market policies.     

EVALUATING THE COOK COUNTY SENTENCING GUIDELINES

This article examines the empirical basis for current criminal sentencing guidelines being used in Cook County, Illinois. Unlike in many other sentencing reforms, guidelines have generally been developed out of an empirical analysis of past sentencing decisions through the identification of variables most predictive of sentence. However, when the statistical analysis is inadequate or faulty, the resultant sentencing guidelines must be questioned. Presented is a reanalysis of the original data used to develop Cook County's sentencing guidelines. Generally, the current sentencing guidelines used in Cook County are not found to be predictive of sentence. Implications of this finding are discussed.     

Rights, Legal Reasoning and Rational Discourse

Abstract
The first part of this article contains an analysis of the concept of a right, which implies a rational structure of reasoning about rights, elaborated in the second part. In the third part both the concept of a right and reasoning about rights are connected with the theory of rational discourse. The author's thesis is that there exists an internal relation between the theory of rights and the theory of legal reasoning.     

RESIDENTIAL SUCCESSION AND DELINQUENCY A Test of Shaw and McKay's Theory of Cultural Transmission

The impact of neighborhood cultural and institutional lye upon rates of delinquency among black male adolescents is examined. Focusing on three adjacent black neighborhoods at varying levels of black population change, this paper presents direct tests of three corollaries derived from a causal model adapted from Shaw and Mc Kays cultural transmission theory of delinquency. The preliminary results are compatible with the model: the level of delinquency is higher in a racially changing than in two more racially stable neighborhoods. Other findings. however, fail to support the cultural transmission interpretation of these results. Contrary to Shaw and Mc Kay, delinquency is lowest in the area where criminal influences are the most pronounced. This anomaly is discussed and interpreted in a manner consistent with De FIeur and Quinney's (1966) reformulation of differential association theory.     

DELINQUENCY AND SPECIAL DETERRENCE

The research reported herein is a replication of Cluster's (1967) work. The deference is that we recast the interpretation into a framework of special deterrence. The results are paradoxical: relative to others, training school boys give higher estimates of the likelihood of offenses culminating in arrest and conviction, but they are more likely to say that they would commit such offenses in the future.