Flawed Western System Gives Chinese Banks Room to Expand

IN 2008, the U.S. and European banking system as a whole became insolvent, requiring US $1.7 trillion in taxpayer bailouts. Even this     

How ‘Local’ are the Liberal Democrats? Recent Evidence from Electoral Performance and Campaigning

In order to reclaim a credible place in the British two‐party system, the Liberal Democrats have done much to establish their community credentials. Successfully contesting seats in local elections may offer the best opportunities for a party to exploit limited resources and nurture its grass‐roots support. As a result, the party has been able to build up a reputation for optimising the so‐called snowball effect. This article focuses on two aspects of the Liberal Democrats’ local nature. The first is electoral trends since 1997—in terms of gaining and maintaining council control—and the extent to which this may have acted as a springboard for success in Westminster elections. The second reflects upon the content of campaigning in the 2005 general election. To what extent did the Liberal Democrats prioritise local issues in constituency leaflets? It concludes that the importance of locality to a party like the Liberal Democrats can present a double‐edged sword.     

THE DYNAMICS OF DELINQUENT PEERS AND DELINQUENT BEHAVIOR*

This analysis examines the dynamic reciprocal relationship between delinquent peer associations and delinquent behavior. It tests the hypothesis, derived from learning and interactional theories, that delinquent peers and delinquent behavior are reciprocally related—delinquent peer associations foster future delinquency, and delinquency increases the likelihood of associating with delinquent peers. It also tests the competing hypothesis, derived from control theories, that delinquent peers do not cause delinquency, but instead, the relationship is (1) spurious due to individual criminal propensity, (2) a result of the effects of delinquent behavior on future associations with delinquent peers, or (3) an artifact of problems of measuring delinquent peers. To test these propositions, we use data from the National Youth Survey and estimate a cross-lagged panel model that corrects for measurement error in indicators of delinquent peers and delinquent behavior. The model species a covariance structure model for ordinal measures. Parameters are estimated by (1) estimating a threshold model relating ordinal measures to continuous latent variables; (2) estimating a matrix of polychoric correlations relating observed variables, and (3) using an asymptotic distribution-free estimator to estimate structural parameters. The results suggest that delinquent peer associations and delinquent behavior are reciprocally related, but the effect of delinquency on peer associations is larger than that of peer associations on delinquency.     

Why China Will Grow Rich Before It Grows Old

正THE announcement of the relaxation of China’s one child policy created great discussion in China and internationally.But its significance was widely misunderstood.Contrary to myth,the increase in China’s labor supply plays little role in China’s rapid economic growth.In reality,96 percent of China’s economic growth comes from factors other than a rising labor supply.Therefore,there is no reason why China’s economy should slow significantly because China’s working age population stopped growing in 2012.The mistaken view,sometimes expressed,that China will grow old before it becomes rich is therefore the reverse of the reality:China will grow rich before it grows old.To demonstrate clearly why,first the facts will be stated and then their implications analysed.     

China＇s Changing Pattern of FDI

正INWARD investment into China continues to be the highest of any developing economy,at US$101 billion in 2013,according to UN fi gures,but its pattern is changing signifi cantly as the country develops,and this trend will inevitably deepen.In the first decades after the start of China’s economic reforms in 1978,foreign direct investment was primarily     

China＇s Changing Development Pattern

正DATA available on the world’s two largest economies,China and the U.S.,for 2013provide an opportunity to take stock of China’s immediate economic prospects and the more general challenges facing its economic development strategy.     

China Can Maintain Its Economic Growth

正EARLIER this year sections of the Western media tried to spin a story that the world economy was experiencing"severe slowdown in China"and"strong recovery in the U.S."In other words,China’s economy was allegedly in trouble and the U.S.was doing well.Now that the factual data is in for the fi rst half of the year it shows the opposite was true.China’s economic growth was 7.5 percent to the second quarter of 2014;that of the U.S.was 2.4 percent.China’s economy thus grew more than three times as fast as the U.S.’s.Still more signifi cantly for the U.S.,its own statistical agencies and the IMF have offi cially revised their projections for long-term U.S.growth.Both now estimate it at     

TOWARD AN ANALYTICAL CRIMINOLOGY: THE MICRO–MACRO PROBLEM,CAUSAL MECHANISMS,AND PUBLIC POLICY

In this address, I revisit the micro–macro problem in criminology, arguing for an “analytical criminology” that takes an integrated approach to the micro–macro problem. I begin by contrasting an integrated methodological‐individualist approach with traditional holist and individualist approaches. An integrated approach considers the concept of emergence and tackles the difficult problem of specifying causal mechanisms by which interactions among individuals produce social organizational outcomes. After presenting a few examples of micro–macro transitions relevant to criminology, I discuss research programs in sociology and economics that focus on these issues. I then discuss the implications of social interaction effects for making causal inferences about crime and for making crime policy recommendations.     

The New Philadelphia Story: The Effects of Severe Punishment for Drunk Driving*

This article documents the experience of a community–New Philadelphia, Ohio–in which a concerned judge attempted to apply severe penalties in order to deter drunk driving. Surveys of drivers on weekend nights were performed in this community and the nearby comparison city of Cambridge in order to determine the extent to which the legal threats were perceived and the extent to which people drank and drove. It was found that the judicial policies were well known in New Philadelphia, but no differences could be discerned in the extent of drinking and driving between the two cities. No significant differences were found in the subsequent records of samples of sentenced drivers in the two cities, the New Philadelphia sample being sentenced to heavy punishments and the Cambridge drivers being sentenced traditionally. The accomplishments and limitations of the experience reported in this study are relevant both to formulating effective countermeasures to drunk driving in specific American communities, and to understanding the role of law–its capabilities and limitations–in addressing social problems more generally.