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131.
Ralph E. Strauch 《Policy Sciences》1970,1(1):87-96
The abuse of techniques of statistical inference resulting from inadequate attention to the relationship between the model used and the real world problem being addressed, and inappropriate interpretation of conclusions in the light of that relationsip, are discussed. The basic principle underlying all statistical inference is that we attempt to distinguish between alternatives by comparing observed behavior with that predicted by predictive models of those alternatives. The use of predictive models which do not describe the behavior of the alternatives between which we wish to distinguish is a clear violation of that principle. The principle is illustrated in a discussion of sampling from an urn. The technique of causal inference through partial correlation analysis is discussed as an example of the violation of this principle. On the surface this technique appears to have wide applicability in analyses in support of policy studies, but further examination shows its applicability to be somewhere between highly questionable and totally specious. 相似文献
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"Congressional foreign policy entrepreneurs" are those legislators who initiate their own foreign policy agendas. These individuals seek to frame policy discussions and mobilize public and interest group interest; to direct congressional agendas toward specific foreign policy issues; to structure and influence the formulation of foreign policies by the executive branch; to revise, refocus, or reformulate foreign policies; to generate alternative and replacement foreign policies; and to fill policy vacuums with their own preferred foreign policies. This paper examines the evolution and impact of such entrepreneurs across the periods of the Cold War Consensus (1946–1967), the Cold War Dissensus (1968–1989), and the Post-Cold War (1990–2000). The paper first provides an overview of the concept of foreign policy entrepreneurs. It then turns to case studies of entrepreneurial initiatives from three prolific entrepreneurs whose careers span the post-World War II era: Senators Jacob Javits, Edward Kennedy, and Christopher Dodd. Together, the overview and cases shed light on the different avenues and activities that entrepreneurs use to address their preferred issues and the impact entrepreneurs have on policy, as well as highlight changes in both over time. 相似文献
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The subprime mortgage debacle in the USA and the subsequent global credit crunch provoked a wide range of crisis management responses in different national settings. Such interventions are typically figured as the sovereign state coming to the rescue of the markets and the banks. In contrast, and offering a critical analysis of the character and content of the principal interventions of authorities in the heartland of the crisis in the USA and the UK from Autumn 2007 through to 2009, we argue that these responses served to reproduce financialisation tendencies present across the seemingly separable domains of state and market which contributed to producing the crisis in the first place. Understood as a process co-constituted through pervasive but contradictory developments in capital accumulation, the risk management practices of lenders and the disciplining of borrowers, we show how, far from being seriously curtailed by crisis management, the financialisation of socio-economic life was actually buttressed during the very period in which its fragilities were most sharply exposed. In short, the management of the subprime crisis is a story akin to that of trying to put Humpty Dumpty back together again. 相似文献
136.
Robin Gregory Ralph Keeney Detlof von Winterfeldt 《Journal of policy analysis and management》1992,11(1):58-75
The environmental impact statement (EIS) process is central to the assessment of environmentally significant actions. Yet decisions about what matters in the environment and what gets studied as part of an EIS are based on values that are largely implicit and come primarily from technical experts. In this article we propose using the techniques of decision analysis (DA) to articulate values explicitly and make the EIS process more effective as an aid to decisionmakers in developing defensible environmental policies. We identify five major sources of problems with the current EIS approach, propose a new environmental decision process that incorporates DA in the EIS framework, and consider the merits, problems, and feasibility of implementing the suggested policy improvements. 相似文献
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Martin Deutsch George W. Albee Kurt W. Back Launor F. Carter Robert Chin Kenneth B. Clark William A. Gamson Harold B. Gerard Kenneth R. Hammond Robert Hefner Edwin P. Hollander Robert L. Kahn Nathan Maccoby Thomas F. Pettigrew Harold L. Proshansky M. Brewster Smith Ralph K. White Philip G. Zimbardo 《Society》1969,6(8):6-6
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