The future is uncertain and the end is always near

The standard view of contemporary unipolar politics is that systemic constraints impede the translation of American power capabilities into influence over security outcomes, rendering the United States (US) much less capable than its material capabilities imply. Challenging this logic, William Wohlforth and Stephen Brooks argue that systemic constraints under unipolarity are largely inoperative with respect to the security policies of the unipolar power. Indeed, the US is uniquely positioned in today's world to convert its enormous capability advantages into influence and usable power. While World out of balance is a masterwork of logical and rigorous argumentation, Brooks and Wohlforth, in their exclusive focus on the hegemon and its policies, do not attempt to offer a general theory of unipolarity. Thus, they do not consider the possibility that unipolarity does not constrain any actors or the issue of system change. This essay advances two routes out of unipolarity: (1) a ‘delegitimation’ phase followed by regular balancing behavior and (2) a sudden and dramatic shift from unipolarity to multipolarity brought on by an unforeseen US collapse.     

Transitional gains and rent extraction

Public Choice - Tullock (Bell J Econ 6:671–678, 1975) described a transitional gains trap in which the present value of rents is capitalized in the value of an asset required to get the...     

Longitudinal Effects of a Universal Family-Focused Intervention on Growth Patterns of Adolescent Internalizing Symptoms and Polysubstance Use: Gender Comparisons

This study evaluated effects of the Iowa Strengthening Families Program, a family-focused universal preventive intervention, on growth patterns of adolescent internalizing (anxiety and depressive symptoms) and monthly polysubstance use (alcohol, tobacco, marijuana, inhalants, and other illicit drugs), as well as the association between internalizing and polysubstance growth factors. The sample consisted of rural Midwestern adolescents (N = 383), followed from sixth through twelfth grade. Compared to the control group, the intervention group adolescents showed a slower rate of increase in internalizing symptoms and polysubstance use. Intervention effects on internalizing symptoms were similar for boys and girls; however, girls demonstrated a higher overall level and a greater rate of increase across time. The intervention slowed the rate of increase in polysubstance use significantly more for girls than for boys, although overall levels of use were lower in the intervention group for both genders. Associations between internalizing and polysubstance use growth factors were found for girls, but not for boys, suggesting gender differences in psychosocial development.

Sovereign Currency and Non-Sovereign Budgets: The Modern Money Theory Approach

This paper will present the Modern Money Theory approach to government finance. In short, a national government that chooses its own money of account, imposes a tax in that money of account, and issues currency in that money of account cannot face a financial constraint. It can make all payments as they come due. It cannot be forced into insolvency. While this was well-understood in the early post-war period, it was gradually “forgotten” as the neoclassical theory of the household budget constraint was applied to government finance. Matters were made worse by the development of “generational accounting” that calculated hundreds of trillions of dollars of government red ink through eternity due to what neoconservatives label “entitlements” (largely, Medicare and Social Security). As austerity measures were increasingly adopted at the national level, fiscal responsibility was shifted to state and local governments through “devolution.” A “stakeholder” approach to government finance helped fuel white flight to suburbs and produced “doughnut holes” in the cities. To reverse these trends, we need to redevelop our understanding of the fiscal space open to the currency issuer—expanding its responsibility not only for national social spending but also for helping to fund state and local government spending. This is no longer just an academic debate, given the challenges posed by climate change, growing inequality, secular stagnation, and the rise of Trumpism.     

Veterans interests and the transition to government growth: 1870–1915

Civil War veterans were the first interest group to use their political power to obtain substantial monetary transfers from the U.S. Treasury. Veterans supported the Republican party, and in exchange Republicans provided increasingly generous veterans benefits, placing a strain on the Treasury that led toward a demand for increased taxes. Veterans also established a precedent that other groups could follow to petition the goverment for economic benefits, shaping the transformation of American government in the Progressive era which led to the substantial growth of the federal government in the 20th century.