Policy voting in U.S. House primaries

ABSTRACT

This paper uses exit surveys of voters in four House primaries to ask how well voters are able to use primaries for the purpose of giving policy direction to their congressional parties. The surveys found that nearly half of voters could not recall the names of any candidate and that 11% were uncertain or could not recall for whom they had just voted. The surveys also found that nearly 40% of voters could not offer a political evaluation – that is, a like or dislike having political content – about any candidate, and that fewer than a quarter could offer political evaluations of as many as two candidates. The surveys found no evidence of policy-motivated voting in three of the four primaries, but substantial evidence of it in one. Yet even in that one race, voters split their support among three candidates sharing majority voter opinion on the key election issue and thereby opened the way for nomination of a candidate not sharing majority opinion. The paper concludes from this evidence that voters in these House primaries, and probably more widely, made little use of them for the purpose of giving policy direction to their parties.     

Peak Millennials: Three Reinforcing Cycles That Amplify the Rise and Fall of Urban Concentration by Millennials

The rise and fall of the Millennial generation congregating in central cities is a product of life course meeting unique historical context. Three reinforcing cycles harmonized before 2010 to maximize Millennial presence, and then will harmonize in 2020 to reduce presence. In 2015, the peak Millennial birth cohort passed age 25, with smaller cohorts to follow. Job opportunity that had sharply worsened following the Great Recession is reversing, with renewed job growth opening entry positions, and with less competition from smaller cohorts. In housing, Millennials were doubled up at entry levels of their housing life cycle, blocked by older peers who were unable to turn over their apartments for better homes. With renewal of new construction and home buying, stronger vacancy chains will again stimulate outflow. The combined effect of the three reversed cycles will reduce central concentrations of young adults. Preferences may persist for urban walkability but, freed of their former constraints, preferences will now be expressed through choice from a broader range of locales. Cities and suburbs can compete for Millennials passing age 30 with walkable districts, transit, and better schools and housing.     

Kornai goes to Kenya

Public Choice - János Kornai developed soft budget constraint logic to explain the socialist world’s dysfunctional economies. We extend his logic to explain dysfunctional land reform in...     

Challenges to decentralisation in Ghana: where do citizens seek assistance?

Decentralisation in Ghana, and across sub-Saharan Africa, faces a number of challenges to successful local governance provision because there are a number of formal and informal actors to choose from. Citizens may take problems they want a governance provider to solve to a member of parliament or a district assembly person, a traditional chief or a police officer, a neighbour or an NGO. In this article we report on a four-constituency survey administered to explore and understand how citizens choose between the options of local institutions available to them in order to solve a problem important to their community or themselves. We find that formal national (Parliamentarians) and informal traditional (Chiefs) institutions are where respondents turn for assistance most often instead of constitutionally described local modes of governance (District Assemblies). We consider the implications of this finding in terms of decentralisation in Ghana and the need to build institutions that are context-sensitive and reflect how citizens understand political options.     

Carriers of the Creed: Examining Democrats’ Commitment to Egalitarianism as Principle and Policy

Political Behavior - The Democratic Party is a coalition of interests sharing a common desire to use government to ameliorate societal inequities. Research shows that the party’s programmatic...     

Re‐evaluating US strategic priorities in the Caspian Region: balancing energy resource initiatives with terrorism containment

In the aftermath of September 11, US strategy has shifted in the Central Asian region from protecting the sovereignty of the southern post‐Soviet states to ensuring their stability in light of the dual impacts of energy development and the rising threat of Islamic terrorism. Although US–Russian cooperation has made strides, particularly concerning Russian acquiescence toward US and NATO military engagement in the region, geostrategic rivalry and conflicting economic goals have hindered a joint approach to initiatives regarding the region's energy development. While both agree on the goal of maximising Russian and Caspian gas and petroleum exports, US policy is increasingly prioritising Central Asian energy prosperity as a key factor in the region's ability to contain terrorism. Development of the region's energy resources has therefore become a critical US security concern. Yet, by failing to engage with Russia in a meaningful cooperation that could encourage Moscow to diversify its own energy export prospects, competition between the two powers is likely to reduce, rather than improve, the effectiveness of either in offering the Central Asian states the kind of support they need to strengthen their domestic profiles or withstand the incursion of terrorism.     

Regulating stop and search: a challenge for police and community relations in England and Wales

Policing in England and Wales has become increasingly contested since the 1960s and has been subject to unprecedented levels of public scrutiny. Stop and search powers have played a central role in this process and, though often described as an essential part of modern policing, have continued to provide a flashpoint in police–community relations. In this article the authors briefly review the history of stop and search in England and Wales, drawing particular attention to the concerns that have been raised about the use of this power in relation to minority ethnic communities. The article goes on to consider how issues of public trust and confidence have been addressed and raises questions about the effectiveness of efforts to regulate this area of activity. Finally, we suggest that regulation has become too tightly bound to ‘‘race’’ and measures of disproportionality. Instead, we argue that the current focus on ‘‘race’’ should be broadened to include other groups that may be subject to over-policing and that monitoring should be based on a system of triangulation, which combines multiple indicators and mixed methods.