The influence of alcohol content variation in UK packaged beers on the uncertainty of calculations using the Widmark equation

It is common for forensic practitioners to calculate an individual's likely blood alcohol concentration following the consumption of alcoholic beverage(s) for legal purposes, such as in driving under the influence (DUI) cases. It is important in these cases to be able to give the uncertainty of measurement on any calculated result, for this reason uncertainty data for the variables used for any calculation are required. In order to determine the uncertainty associated with the alcohol concentration of beer in the UK the alcohol concentration (%v/v) of 218 packaged beers (112 with an alcohol concentration of ≤5.5%v/v and 106 with an alcohol concentration of >5.5%v/v) were tested using an industry standard near infra-red (NIR) analyser. The range of labelled beer alcohol by volume (ABV's) tested was 3.4%v/v – 14%v/v. The beers were obtained from a range of outlets throughout the UK over a period of 12?months. The root mean square error (RMSE) was found to be ±0.43%v/v (beers with declared %ABV of ≤5.5%v/v) and ±0.53%v/v (beers with declared %ABV of >5.5%v/v) the RMSE for all beers was ±0.48%v/v. The standard deviation from the declared %ABV is larger than those previously utilised for uncertainty calculations and illustrates the importance of appropriate experimental data for use in the determination of uncertainty in forensic calculations.     

Specificity of sibship determination using the ABI Identifiler multiplex system

Fifty known siblings and fifty unrelated pairs were genotyped using the ABI Identifiler STR system and sibship indices computed for each pair. Combined sibship indices (CSIs) for the known siblings ranged from less than 10 to greater than 1 billion. CSIs for the unrelated pairs ranged from 4.5 x 10(-8) to 0.12. In the known sibling group the percentage of loci where both alleles matched was approximately 40%, while the percentage of loci where neither matched was approximately 10%. In the non-sibling group, the percentage of loci where both alleles matched was approximately 6%, while the percentage of loci where neither matched was approximately 45%. Interestingly, the percentage of loci where a single allele matched was the same in both the known siblings and unrelated pairs, approximately 50%.     

How Cities in California Have Responded to Fiscal Pressures Since Proposition 13

Fiscal pressures on California cities have been severe since the passage of Proposition 13. Federal and state aid policies have, in fact, exacerbated an already wrenching pattern of revenue losses since FY 77-78. State aid, in particular, has perversely dropped the most for those cities hit hardest by reductions in other revenues outside their direct control. Despite this, California cities have kept total real per capita revenues and expenditures constant over this period by increasing revenues from a variety of local sources—and especially from current service charges for enterprise activities. Furthermore, cities hit hardest by exogenous revenue losses have increased locally raised revenues the most. In short, cities in California have responded to reductions in revenues outside their direct control by increasing revenues from sources within their direct control, rather than by reducing expenditures and their revenue-increasing responses have tended to be in proportion to the losses they have faced in exogenous revenues.     

Rolling the Dice on Foreclosure Prevention: Differences Across Mortgage Servicers in Loan Modifications and Loan Cure Rates

Mortgage servicing has garnered increased attention since the foreclosure crisis. As the interface between borrowers and investors, servicers make the decision to either grant a loan modification or to foreclose. This study examines servicer loan modification practices for a national sample of delinquent subprime loans, and assesses the extent to which those practices are associated with foreclosures. The research reveals significant differences across servicers in loan cure rates, which are related to servicers’ propensity to offer loan modifications and to the level of relief offered to borrowers. The observed differences across servicers and the implications of this heterogeneity for foreclosure prevention underscore the importance of additional data, research, and policies that can increase the uniformity and transparency of servicing practices.     

Peer Rejection,Affiliation with Deviant Peers,Delinquency, and Risky Sexual Behavior

Risky sexual behavior poses significant health risks by increasing sexually transmitted infections and unintended pregnancies. Previous research has documented many factors related to risky sexual behavior. This study adds to the literature by proposing a prospective, developmental model of peer factors related to risky sexual behavior. Developmental pathways to risky sexual behavior were examined in a sample of 517 individuals (51 % female; 82 % European American, 16 % African American, 2 % other) followed from age 5–27. Structural equation models examined direct and indirect effects of peer rejection (assessed via peer nominations at ages 5, 6, 7, and 8), affiliation with deviant peers (assessed via self-report at ages 11 and 12), and delinquency (assessed via maternal report at ages 10 and 16) on risky sexual behavior (assessed via self-report at age 27). More peer rejection during childhood, affiliation with deviant peers during pre- adolescence, and delinquency in childhood and adolescence predicted more risky sexual behavior through age 27, although delinquency at age 16 was the only risk factor that had a significant direct effect on risky sexual behavior through age 27 above and beyond the other risk factors. Peer rejection was related to subsequent risk factors for girls but not boys. Peer risk factors as early as age 5 shape developmental pathways through childhood and adolescence and have implications for risky sexual behavior into adulthood.