A contribution to the discussion of probabilities and human hair comparisons

The paper by Gaudette and Keeping on "An Attempt at Determining Probabilities in Human Scalp Hair Comparison" in the Journal of Forensic Sciences (Vol. 19, No. 3, July 1974, pp. 599-606) has provoked considerable controversy. This paper highlights two of the sources of the controversy and shows how the probability, 1/4500, quoted by Gaudette and Keeping should be treated with caution. The necessity of the use of a likelihood ratio statistic is described. It is suggested that the hair examination form resulting from the responses to the questionnaire recently distributed by the authors and also the discussions at Quantico (Proceedings of the International Symposium on Forensic Hair Comparisons, 25-27 June 1985, Quantico VA) should be used to facilitate the collection of the data which will be necessary to enable a likelihood ratio statistic to be estimated effectively.     

Characteristics of adolescent incest sexual perpetrators: Preliminary findings

Adolescent incest sexual perpetrators seen at an out-patient clinic were interviewed regarding demographic characteristics and occurrence of deviant and nondeviant sexual behaviors. Results indicate that subjects (1) committed more sexual crimes than they had been arrested for, (2) reported a very early onset of sexual behavior, (3) had additional DSM-III psychiatric disorders, and (4) reported previous sexual victimization. Recommendations for future research are made.     

Repairing the Crack in New Orleans' Black Vote: VRA's Results Test Nullifies "Gerryduck"

In 1982, Section 2 of the U.S. Voting Rights Act was amendedto allow plaintiffs to prevail in voting rights litigation ifthey demonstrate that a challenged law or practice has a discriminatoryresult. One of the first applications of this new statutoryprovision invalidated a congressional districting plan for theNew Orleans metropolitan area, a plan that had divided the city'sblack population virtually in half. This article reviews boththe making and the unmaking of that plan, derisively known asthe "gerryduck." Although the judicial action invalidating thisexercise in racial cartography demonstrates the potential importanceof this new section of the VRA as a legal weapon against minorityvote dilution, the results test provides federal judges withenormous discretion, and the application of the test may thereforebe quite capricious.