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Recently, we proposed an original statistical model for forecasting general elections in the United Kingdom, based on the observation of a few key indicators of the political and economic system. That vote function model was tested against the results of the 2001 general election. Here we evaluate the results of that test, and offer an appropriately revised model for the forecasting of the upcoming 2005 general election. According to our forecast, a Labour victory appears the most likely outcome. 相似文献
235.
The new Principal Officials Accountability System (POAS), a proto-ministerial system, was established at the start of the Second Term of Office of the Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR). This paper examines the setting-up of the POAS and reviews how it has functioned during its first year of life. Both the design and implementation of the POAS were characterized by undue haste. The establishing of the POAS intensified the debate on a range of matters as new ministers, senior civil servants and residents have come to terms with the detail of this novel arrangement. Discussions about political reform are set to intensify in the years to come. This article reviews the origins and deeper need for the POAS in Hong Kong before looking at the fundamentals of the new system. The nature of ‘accountability’ is then discussed prior to examining Hong Kong's experience with the POAS in action during its first year. The article also discusses the potential of the POAS to contribute to Hong Kong's overall political development. 相似文献
236.
Anne van Hoof Quinten A. W. Raaijmakers Yolanda van Beek William W. HaleIII Liesbeth Aleva 《Journal of youth and adolescence》2008,37(7):772-782
This study investigated a multi-mediation model of the relationship between bullying behavior, peer victimization, personal
identity, and family characteristics to adolescent depressive symptoms in 194 high school students, 12–18 years of age. In
the first model, peer victimization mediated the relation between bullying behavior and depressive symptoms. In the second
model, personal identity mediated the relation between peer victimization and depressive symptoms. In the final model, the
two mediation models were combined. The relative influence of family characteristics on all variables in the two mediation
models was studied using structural equation modeling. The results supported both mediation models and confirmed the influence
of family characteristics on all variables in the mediation models. This study indicates that victimization by one’s peers
has consequences for adolescents’ psychological health when their personal identity is affected. In addition, the study was
able to model several processes in which family characteristics were related to adolescent depressive symptoms. Moreover,
the final combined model (in which the two mediation models and the influence of family characteristics on all variables were
confirmed) explained half of the variance in adolescent depressive symptoms.
相似文献
Liesbeth AlevaEmail: |
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Dawn Richards Elliott Ransford W. Palmer 《Studies in Comparative International Development (SCID)》2008,43(2):181-205
We explore the impact of social institutions on economic performance in Jamaica through a reinterpretation of the plantation
economic model. In its original form, the plantation model fails to develop a causal link between the plantation legacy and
persistent underdevelopment. Despite its marginalization, the model remains useful for discussions on growth and development.
Consequently, we offer a reappraisal using the causal insights from Kenneth Sokoloff and Stanley Engerman. We use two examples
to demonstrate how inequality encourages the formation of institutions that are inconsistent with growth, and an empirical
analysis to confirm the hypothesized relationship between inequality, institutions, and economic development. Since inequality
is expected to influence growth indirectly, we use a structural specification, which follows William Easterly’s recent test
of Sokoloff and Engerman’s argument. Our reliance on a time-series specification is unique. We demonstrate that the expectation
that, on average, inequality and growth is negatively related and that institutions may compromise growth are accurate for
Jamaica, the most cited Caribbean nation in the current discourse. Our results carry several policy implications, including
support for the recent calls in Jamaica for political restructuring. However, both the paucity of similar studies and the
importance of the implications for sustainable growth and development demand further analyses.
Dawn Richards Elliott is a Jamaican economist and associate professor of economics at Texas Christian University. Her research and teaching interests address Caribbean development issues from a political economy perspective. Ransford W. Palmer professor of economics at Howard University, has written several books and journal articles on Caribbean economic and migration issues. He is a former chairman of the Howard University Department of Economics and former president of the Caribbean Studies Association. 相似文献
Ransford W. PalmerEmail: |
Dawn Richards Elliott is a Jamaican economist and associate professor of economics at Texas Christian University. Her research and teaching interests address Caribbean development issues from a political economy perspective. Ransford W. Palmer professor of economics at Howard University, has written several books and journal articles on Caribbean economic and migration issues. He is a former chairman of the Howard University Department of Economics and former president of the Caribbean Studies Association. 相似文献
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The International Monetary Fund: A review of the recent evidence 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
A review of recent quantitative studies on the International Monetary Fund reveals that much of the conventional wisdom is
incorrect. Recent studies have demonstrated a new degree of methodological rigor, have drawn more heavily upon insights from
political science, and have asked a number of new questions. We review studies of participation in IMF programs, design of
IMF conditionality, implementation and enforcement of IMF conditions, conventional program effects and catalytic effects.
At every stage, we find substantial evidence of the influence of major IMF shareholders, of the Fund’s own organizational
imperatives, and of domestic politics within borrowing countries. We conclude that very little is known with certainty about
the effects of IMF lending, but that a great deal has been learned about the mechanics of IMF programs that will have to be
taken into account in order to obtain unbiased estimates of those effects.
相似文献
Randall W. StoneEmail: |