Whatever Happened to the New York Intellectuals?

Over the course of a very few decades, the New York Intellectuals went form being the intellectual community in U.S. cultural life to a historical coterie with little contemporary relevance. This article suggests some of the reasons for this evolution, both intellectual and personal.     

On the stability of U.S. politics: post-sample forecasts and refinements of the Congleton–Shughart models of Social Security and Medicare benefit levels

Public Choice - An important issue associated with empirical research is the extent to which statistical results continue to hold in the post-sample period. Although many tests of robustness within...     

International Trade as a Limiting Factor in Democratization: an Analysis of Subnational Regions in Post-Communist Russia

The paper investigates the interplay of economic development and democratization in Russian regions. It introduces the new concept of a limiting factor, i.e., a particular resource with a highly localized source that is crucial for economic development. Based on both econometric analysis and detailed case studies, the paper shows that for a large subset of Russian regions, access to trade with the countries of the former Soviet Union constitutes a limiting factor, which on one hand is necessary to sustain economic growth but on the other strengthens the likelihood of a nondemocratic outcome in local regime transition. We also provide some tentative conjectures regarding other instances of a limiting factor that can be found worldwide both currently and historically.     

On filtering longitudinal public opinion data: Issues in identification and representation of true change

The Kalman filter is a popular tool in engineering and economics. It is becoming popular in political science, touted for its abilities to reduce measurement error and produce more precise estimates of true public opinion. Its application to survey measures of public opinion varies in important ways compared to the traditionally understood Kalman filter. It makes a priori assumptions about the variance of the sampling error that would not usually be made and does so in a way that violates an important property of the Kalman filter. Consequently, the behavior of the filter modified for public opinion measures is less well-known. Through simulations we assess whether and to what extent filtering: reliably detects the characteristics of time series; does so across series with different rates of autoregressive decay; and does so when the variance of the sampling error is unknown. We also examine whether the filtered data represents the level of true underlying variance and the extent to which filtering assists or hinders our ability to detect exogenous shocks. We learn a numbers of things. Most importantly, taking into account sampling error variance when filtering data can work well, though its performance does vary. First, filtering works best identifying time series characteristics when assuming a stationary process, even if the underlying process contains a unit root. Second, the performance of filtering drops off when we incorrectly specify the variance of the sampling error, and especially when we overestimate it. Third, when estimating exogenous shocks it is better to make no a priori assumptions regarding a measurement error variance unless we are absolutely certain we know what it is. In fact, applying the filter without specifying the measurement error variance is more often than not the best choice.     

The Relative Influence of Different Domains of Social Connectedness on Self-Directed Violence in Adolescence

Previous research has linked greater social connectedness with a lowered risk of self-directed violence among adolescents. However, few studies have analyzed the comparative strength of different domains of connectedness (e.g., family, peers and school) to determine where limited resources might best be focused. Data to address that gap were taken from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Student Health and Safety Survey, administered to 4,131 7th–12th graders (51.5% female; 43.8% Hispanic; 22.6% African American or Black). Logistic regressions (controlling for age, gender, race/ethnicity, family structure, academic performance, and depressive symptoms) suggest that family connectedness was a stronger predictor than connectedness to peers, school, or adults at school for non-suicidal self-harm, suicidal ideation, suicide plans, and non-fatal suicidal behavior. In some analyses, peer connectedness was unexpectedly a risk factor. Results have implications for prevention of suicide in adolescence, especially in the context of the current trend towards school-based prevention programs.     

Politische Theorie und Ideengeschichte, Politisches System der Bundesrepublik, Politische Soziologie, Vergleichende Politikforschung, Europäische Union, Internationale Politik, Historische Politikforschung

Inhaltsübersicht   (RezensentInnen in Klammern) Literaturbericht    J?rg Faust / Stefan Leiderer: Zur Effektivit?t und politischen ?konomie der Entwicklungszusammenarbeit Politische Theorie und Ideengeschichte    Bluhm, Harald, und Jürgen Gebhardt: Politische Ideengeschichte im 20. Jahrhundert. Konzepte und Kritik (Philipp H?lzing) • Dryzek, John S., Bonnie Honig und Anne Phillips (eds.): The Oxford Handbook of Political Theory (Johannes Schmidt) • Ke?ler, Mario: Ossip K. Flechtheim. Politischer Wissenschaftler und Zukunftsdenker (1909–1998) (Wilhelm Bleek) • Priester, Karin: Populismus. Historische und aktuelle Erscheinungsformen (Florian Hartleb) • S?llner, Alfons: Fluchtpunkte. Studien zur politischen Ideengeschichte des 20. Jahrhunderts (Michael Becker) • Williams, Bernard: In the Beginning Was the Deed. Realism and Moralism in Political Argument (Carsten Quesel) • Doppelrezension: Henning, Christoph: Philosophie nach Marx. 100 Jahre Marxrezeption und die normative Sozialphilosophie der Gegenwart in der Kritik; Henning, Christoph (Hg.): Marxglossar (Felix Heidenreich) • Doppelrezension: Mouffe, Chantal: über das Politische. Wider die kosmopolitische Illusion; Nonhoff, Martin: Politischer Diskurs und Hegemonie. Das Projekt "Soziale Marktwirtschaft" (André Brodocz) Politisches System der Bundesrepublik    Van Ooyen, Robert Chr., und Martin H. M?llers (Hg.): Das Bundesverfassungsgericht im politischen System (Hubert Woltering) Politische Soziologie    Dolata, Ulrich, und Raymund Werle (Hg.): Gesellschaft und die Macht der Technik. Sozio?konomischer und institutioneller Wandel durch Technisierung (Georg Simonis) Vergleichende Politikforschung    Castles, Francis G. (ed.): The Disappearing State? Retrenchment realities in an age of globalization (Marius R. Busemeyer) • Clasen, Jochen, und Nico A. Siegel (eds.): Investigating Welfare State Change: The 'Dependent Variable Problem' in Comparative Analysis (Marius R. Busemeyer) Europ?ische Union    Huget, Holger: Demokratisierung der EU. Normative Demokratietheorie und Governance-Praxis im europ?ischen Mehrebenensystem (Andreas Wimmel) Internationale Politik    Eder, Franz, Gerhard Mangott und Martin Senn (eds.): Transatlantic Discord. Combating Terrorism and Proliferation, Preventing Crises (Alexander Siedschlag) • Marx, Johannes: Vielfalt oder Einheit der Theorien in den Internationalen Beziehungen. Eine systematische Rekonstruktion, Integration und Bewertung (Ralf J. Leiteritz) • Schmidt, Siegmar, Gunter Hellmann und Reinhard Wolf (Hg.): Handbuch zur Deutschen Au?enpolitik (Helga Haftendorn) • Wolter, Detlev: A United Nations for the 21st Century: From Reaction to Prevention. Towards an Effective and Efficient International Regime for Conflict Prevention and Peacebuilding (Andreas Heinemann-Grüder) • Young, Brigitte (Hg.): Die Politische ?konomie des Dienstleistungsabkommens (GATS). Gender in EU und China (Eva Hartmann) Historische Politikforschung    Kaelble, Hartmut: Sozialgeschichte Europas 1945 bis zur Gegenwart (Siegfried Weichlein) • Doppelrezension: Andres, Jan: "Auf Poesie ist die Sicherheit der Throne gegründet". Huldigungsrituale und Gelegenheitslyrik im 19. Jahrhundert; Schwengelbeck, Matthias: Die Politik des Zeremoniells. Huldigungsfeiern im langen 19. Jahrhundert (Rainer Schmidt)     

Canine Population Data Generated from a Multiplex STR Kit for Use in Forensic Casework*

Abstract: Canine biological specimens are often part of the physical evidence from crime scenes. Until now, there have been no validated canine‐specific forensic reagent kits available. A multiplex genotyping system, comprising 18 short tandem repeats (STRs) and a sex‐linked zinc finger locus for gender determination, was developed for generating population genetic data assessing the weight of canine forensic DNA profiles. Allele frequencies were estimated for 236 pedigreed and 431 mixed breed dogs residing in the U.S. Average random match probability is 1 in 2 × 10³³ using the regional database and 1 in 4 × 10³⁹ using the breed dataset. Each pedigreed population was genetically distinct and could be differentiated from the mixed breed dog population but genetic variation was not significantly correlated with geographic transition. Results herein support the use of the allele frequency data with the canine STR multiplex for conveying the significance of identity testing for forensic casework, parentage testing, and breed assignments.     

Erfolgszurechnung als Frage der Strafzumessung

Eine unwesentliche Abweichung des tats?chlichen Kausalverlaufs vom vorgestellten schlie?t den Vorsatz nicht aus. Da eine Abweichung unwesentlich ist, wenn der Erfolg im Risikozusammenhang mit der Tathandlung steht, ist der Vorsatz in Bezug auf den Kausalverlauf im Ergebnis ohne Bedeutung. Ob aber der Erfolg allenfalls nicht objektiv zurechenbar ist, betrifft bei stafbaren Handlungen, die wie § 176 Abs 1 StGB auch hinsichtlich des Erfolges Vorsatz erfordern, die für die Strafbemessung bedeutsame Frage, ob nur Versuch vorliegt.     

Using human values-based approach to understand cross-cultural commitment toward regulation and governance of cybersecurity†

This article develops a new framework linking cross-cultural human values, regulation, and governance in the area of cybersecurity. Cyber space is currently transitioning from a laissez-faire into a regulated area. Yet, there is a significant heterogeneity in terms of the strength of commitment in different states to regulation and governance of digital spaces. Therefore, it is important to explore why this heterogeneity exists. This article proposes that heterogeneity in the commitment to regulation and governance of cyber space between different nations stems from the fundamental cross-cultural differences in human values between countries. Using an example of cybersecurity, we show how the cultural value orientations theory maps onto national commitments to regulate and govern cybersecurity issues. We construct a theoretical framework linking human values with cybersecurity regulation and confirm the existence of this link empirically using the data from the international Schwartz Value Survey and the Global Cybersecurity Index.