A statistical approach to drug sampling: a case study.

In many countries it is left to the discretion of the court to accept or reject conclusions based on sampling procedures as applied to the total drug exhibit. As an alternative to this subjective approach, a statistical basis is presented using binomial and hypergeometric distributions to determine a lower limit for the proportion of units in a population which contains a drug, at a given confidence level. A method for calculating the total weight of a drug present in a population within a given confidence interval is also presented. In the event of no failures (all units sampled contain a drug), a sample size of six or seven units is generally sufficient to state that a proportion of at least 0.70 of the population contains a drug at a confidence level of at least 90%. When failures do occur in the sample, point estimation is used as the basis for selecting the appropriate sample size.     

Is technology transfer to subsistence farmers doubling nothing?

Editors Note: This commentary touches on an aspect of technology transfer to the Third World that often is neglected: Can the technology recipients afford to use it? Although the authors focus on the economics of shrimp production by subsistence farmers, affordability is one of the major concomitant issues of transfer from developed to developing countries.     

Chronic disease and disadvantage: the new politics of HIV infection

HIV infection is now perceived as the end stage of a chronic disease that is spreading most rapidly among blacks and Hispanics. The politics of the HIV epidemic in the 1980s were dominated by four interacting factors: fear and fascination; who had the disease and to whom it seemed to be spreading; the endemic problems of United States social policy; and the impact on policy of advances in scientific knowledge. This paper analyzes the political history of each of these factors and describes the dominant policies of the federal government and the states regarding HIV in the areas of surveillance, prevention, research, and financing. Four uncertainties will have a profound influence on the future politics of the HIV epidemic: how the states and the federal government will address the general problems of paying for the care of people with chronic diseases and providing access to care for the uninsured and the underinsured; the number and distribution of the sexual behaviors that transmit infection with HIV and the effectiveness of policies to persuade people to modify these behaviors; precisely who uses addictive drugs and the effectiveness of measures to change their behavior; and the natural history of the virus.     

The political economy of the peace dividend

We develop a model of the peace dividend and use it to predict the fiscal consequences of a reduction in the demand for military spending. The model is based on the assumption that the political process responds to political demands and costs in a way that maximizes net political benefits. The predictions of our model on how a peace dividend will be allocated over nonmilitary spending, tax relief, and deficit reduction is tested against the experience of eight major wars in United States history.     

Sudden death in angiodysplasia of the gastroesophageal junction.

A 22-year-old Korean soldier, who had received blows to the neck and epigastrium from an officer 10 h earlier, suddenly died after massive hematemesis. He had been in relatively good health except for episodes of blood-tinged vomiting approximately 5 and 7 months prior to this event. Postmortem examination revealed angiodysplasia involving the gastroesophageal junction, and the stomach was distended with blood. No abnormal findings were present around the whole viscera, and the duodenum was free of blood. The pathologic significance of upper gastrointestinal angiodysplasia as a potential source of bleeding and a chronologic correlation between the trauma and bleeding are discussed.     

Preadolescent peer friendships: A critical contribution to adult social relatedness?

The primary aim of this paper is to review the literature on preadolescent friendships in order to examine the relationship between preadolescent friendships and social support in adulthood. Social supports are important to health, both directly and as a stress buffer. Few studies, however, have specifically examined adult social supports from the perspective of their developmental precursors and critical developmental periods. Some data indicate that the preadolescent period may be of particular importance to the development of adult social skills and ties. Observational and empirical studies of preadolescent peer relationships, and in particular best friendships, suggest unique and critical contributions to adult social relatedness. Present research is suggestive but is insufficient to validate preadolescence as a critical period in adult social relatedness. Our review has implications for better understanding the mechanisms by which preadolescent friendships effect adult social support—an important mediator of the effects of stress on health. Further longitudinal study is needed.Received Ph.D. from University of Maryland. Research interests are social supports and psychological responses to trauma and disaster.Received M.D. from Yale University. Research interests are social supports and traumatic stress.