If It Walks Like a Duck: a Case of Confirmatory Bias

Confirmatory bias is an unavoidable source of error in human judgment, which is rooted in the adaptive design of the brain for recognizing meaningful patterns. In forensic psychology, the complete elimination of confirmatory bias is worth aspiring to, but even its substantial reduction is fraught with challenges. In this brief article, I present a vignette from an actual jury trial to illustrate how a seemingly small instance of confirmatory bias led to a major blunder in expert testimony. Also, I consider how it might have been prevented.     

The promise of humanistic policing: Is higher education living up to societal expectation?

More police agencies require incoming personnel to have a college education background. The hope is that collegeeducated officers will be more rounded thinkers and exhibit a greater humanistic bent. This study attempts to evaluate the efficacy of that line of reasoning. Students from three southern colleges read vignettes and sentenced a murder defendant and an automobile theft defendant to a term of imprisonment. Three hypotheses are tested. First, it is expected that policeoriented criminal justice majors will not issue more severe sentences. Second, it is anticipated that greater exposure to college from the freshman to the senior years will be accompanied by less severe sentences. Third, sentencing will be independent of social characteristics. The results provide little evidence supporting a more authoritarian and more punitive stereotype of criminal justice majors interested in pursuing police careers. A draft of this paper was presented at the annual meeting of the Southern Criminal Justice Association, Chattanooga, TN, 1999     

Determinants of Automobile PAC Contributions to House Incumbents: Own Versus Rival Effects

This paper examines PAC contributions by the Big ThreeU.S. automakers and Japanese auto dealers to Houseincumbents. A regression model is estimated where PACcontributions are a function of a firm's own ties toan incumbent's district (as measured by firmemployment) and those of rivals. For the Big Three,own and U.S. rival effects are positive. Further, theresults do not indicate the presence of a free-ridereffect. Employment by a foreign subsidiary has no neteffect on U.S. contributions. For the Japanesedealers, Japanese plant employment has a positiveimpact on contributions, and that of the Big Three anegative.     

THE ART AND SCIENCE OF CHILD CUSTODY EVALUATIONS

Should a child custody evaluation be a clinical tool informed by forensic methods and procedures or a forensic tool informed by clinical experience? The authors conclude that an evaluation requires a delicate blend of scientific thinking, clinical understanding, through observations, appropriate use of psychological tests, and self‐report measures and information from sufficient collateral sources. Evaluators must pay attention to internal biases and integrate them with the relevant literature. Finally, evaluators must remember that their evaluation and reports will be used by both the courts and the family in reaching a decision on behalf of the children.     

Gender,Ethnicity, and Education as Privileges: Exploring the Generalizability of the Existential Guilt Reaction

Two cross-sectional questionnaire studies were conducted to replicate and extend previous research on the existential guilt reaction. In Study I, gender was considered as a privilege. Male student participants (N = 141) were confronted with the low proportion of women in high-ranking positions and asked to appraise this situation. Self-reported behavior, behavioral intentions, and appeal to authorities aimed at advancing equal opportunities for both genders served as criterion variables. Path analyses were performed to explore the correlation structure among the variables. Self-reported behavior depended most strongly on behavioral intentions and on belief in control. Behavioral intentions depended most strongly on existential guilt. This effect accords to previous existential guilt research. Ethnicity and education were considered as privileges in Study II. Privileged Paraguayan students (N = 80) were confronted with the disadvantageous living conditions of Indians and Campesinos. They were asked to appraise the situation. Behavioral intentions and appeal to authorities directed at improving the living conditions of Indians and Campesinos served as criteria. As in Study I, existential guilt was the strongest predictor of behavioral intentions. Study II revealed the role of values in the process of existential guilt and prosocial behavior. This is a new research finding. Indirect effects of the two values of universalism and benevolence on behavioral intentions were obtained. The effect of universalism was mediated by existential guilt and moral outrage, the effect of benevolence was mediated by injustice and existential guilt. Tradition had a negative indirect effect on behavioral intentions. This effect was mediated by justification of deprivation and probably means that adherence to tradition eases the justification of traditionally existing social inequalities in a society.     

Financial incentives and welfare reform in the United States

This paper uses a microsimulation model to ask whether welfare recipients in the United States would work full‐time if offered an earnings supplement that was conditioned on full‐time employment. The simulations suggest that the earnings supplement would increase full‐time employment, with little additional cash transfer cost to the government. In contrast, financial incentives currently being used by many of the states are increasing employment and income, but are encouraging primarily part‐time employment. Encouraging full‐time employment is particularly important in light of new time limits on welfare receipt. Faced with a loss of welfare benefits, many recipients may find that part‐time earnings do not allow them to be economically self‐sufficient. © 2001 by the Association of Public Policy Analysis and Management.