Elderly sexual offenders: two unusual cases*

The aim of this case report is to describe two cases of sexual abuse by elderly subjects for which the Judge commissioned an expert psychiatric-forensic opinion. The elderly are generally believed to commit nonviolent crimes, whereas the two cases we observed feature forcible rape committed by elderly offenders, who showed no form of mental disease and had rationally planned their offense. They had never previously committed similar acts and had no history of homosexuality; both had been married for many years before the death of their wives and had adult children. Finally, no previous episodes of rape emerged in their personal histories during interrogations. The sociocultural context in which the crimes were committed was identical and arouses interest as regards both the method employed and how the crimes were discovered. The legal authorities then commissioned accurate investigations including medicolegal and psychiatric-forensic evaluations of the offenders and their victims.     

Consideration of the probative value of single donor 15-plex STR profiles in UK populations and its presentation in UK courts

The adoption of new 15 locus STR multiplex systems into UK forensic science would be facilitated by agreed guidelines for reporting the strength of DNA evidence using likelihood ratios. To facilitate such an agreement, we present an analysis of previously published UK allele frequencies for white Caucasian, Afro-Caribbean and Indo-Pakistani populations and investigate their effect on likelihood ratios for single donor profiles. We consider the implication of the five additional loci and suggest a procedure for reporting likelihood ratios for 15-plex STR profiles.     

Effects of Different Temperatures on the Development of Dermestes Frischii and Dermestes Undulatus (Coleoptera,Dermestidae): Comparison Between Species

Dermestidae could be useful in forensic investigations to assess the PMI as adults and larvae colonize dried remains. We reared two species of Dermestidae (Dermestes frischii and Dermestes undulatus) to understand the effects of different temperatures on the length of their whole life cycle and on their immature stages. Both species were reared at 23°C ± 0.5, RH 75% and at 26°C ± 0.5, 75% RH. Our result shows that the temperature is the main factor that influences the development of those species; in fact, increasing temperature leads to a shorter development cycle (59.8 ± 0.5 and 38.1 ± 0.2 for D. frischii; 50.6 ± 0.6 and 36.2 ± 0.2 for D. undulatus). Furthermore, we found that the number of the molts before the pupa decreases from 5–7 to 5–6 for D. frischii and from 4–6 to 4–5 for D. undulatus, respectively, at 23°C and 26°C.     

Variations in pulp/tooth area ratio as an indicator of age: a preliminary study

This paper details a method for age determination of adults from single rooted teeth. The sample consisted of 100 Italian white Caucasian patients (46 men, 54 women) aged between 18 and 72 years. The single rooted maxillary right canine was utilized in this preliminary study. Pulp/root ration, tooth length, pulp/tooth length ratio, pulp/tooth area and pulp/root width ratios at three different levels were computed. Pearson's correlation coefficients between age and these variables showed that the ratio between pulp and tooth area correlated best with age (r2 = 0.85). Stepwise multiple regression models yielded a linear relationship between pulp/root width at mid-root level and chronological age and a linear relationship when pulp/tooth area was compared to age. Statistical analysis indicated that these two variables explain 84.9% of variations in estimated chronological age. The median of the absolute value of residual errors between actual and estimated ages was less than four years.     

Precision and reliability of pulp/tooth area ratio (RA) of second molar as indicator of adult age

This paper discusses a method for assessing adult age based on the relationship between age and measurement of the pulp/tooth area ratio (RA) of the second molar teeth. The sample consisted of 312 Italian white Caucasian patients (135 men, 177 women) aged between 14 and 24 years. Orthopantomograph samples (OPGs) were analyzed by the same observer and calibrated by kappa statistics. Probabilities of an individual being older than 18 years of age (adult age) were derived using measurements of the ratio pulp/tooth area (RA) of the second molar teeth and the dichotomized stages of third molar development (Tm) as explanatory variables. These results were exploited to establish a threshold value to assign an individual to juvenile or adult age. A cut-off value of RA* = 0.088 was applied if Tm = 0 and RA* = 0.097 if Tm = 1. The sensitivity of this test was 91% and its specificity 94.5%. The proportion of individuals with correct classifications was 92%.     

Computation of likelihood ratios in fingerprint identification for configurations of three minutiae

Recent challenges to fingerprint evidence have brought forward the need for peer-reviewed scientific publications to support the evidential value assessment of fingerprint. This paper proposes some research directions to gather statistical knowledge of the within-source and between-sources variability of configurations of three minutiae on fingermarks and fingerprints. This paper proposes the use of the likelihood ratio (LR) approach to assess the value of fingerprint evidence. The model explores the statistical contribution of configurations of three minutiae using Tippett plots and related measures to assess the quality of the system. Features vectors used for statistical analysis have been obtained following a preprocessing step based on Gabor filtering and image processing to extract minutia position, type, and direction. Spatial relationships have been coded using Delaunay triangulation. The metric, used to assess similarity between two feature vectors is based on an Euclidean distance measure. The within-source variability has been estimated using a sample of 216 fingerprints from four fingers (two donors). Between-sources variability takes advantage of a database of 818 ulnar loops from randomly selected males. The results show that the data-driven approach adopted here is robust. The magnitude of LRs obtained under the prosecution and defense propositions stresses upon the major evidential contribution that small portions of fingermark, containing three minutiae, can provide regardless of its position on the general pattern.     

Introduction: The Italian parliamentary elections of 1996 – Competition and Transition

European Journal of Political Research -     

Majoritarian miracles and the question of party system change

European Journal of Political Research - The 1996 elections in Italy may be evaluated using a dual means of inquiry: which novelties (or the absence thereof) appear with respect to 1994? And, how...     

How to lose a majority: the competition in single–member districts

Few observers expected that the 1966 elections in Italy would yield a clear–cut outcome. Even fewer people expected that, after the disastrous results of the previous elections, the centre–left coalition would be able to gain a majority of seats in both branches of Parliament. Yet this is precisely what happened on 21 April 1996. This article tries to explain the comeback of the 1994 losers by focusing on three factors which have changed the electoral balance between the two major coalitions in the single–member districts. The first factor was the ability of the centre–left coalition (Ulivo–RC) to broaden its range while its major rival (the Polo) lost key allies. The result has been a more competitive stand of centre–left candidates, particularly in the North. The Polo lost the support of the Lega Nord and suffered the split of the Movimento Sociale on its right. These defections, along with others, led to the loss of a considerable number of seats. Finally, the Polo also suffered from the defection of a considerable number of its voters who voted for one of the parties of the centre–right coalition in the proportional arena, but refused to vote for the Polo candidate in the single–member districts. We conclude by suggesting a number of hypotheses that could explain this split–ticket phenomenon.