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We explore how institutional set-ups, in particular changes in political institutions through coups d’état, can affect the way military expenditures are determined. We use a counterfactual approach, the synthetic control method, and compare the evolution of the military burden for 40 countries affected by coups with the evolution of a synthetic counterfactual that replicates the initial conditions and the potential outcomes of the countries of interest before exposure to coups. Our case studies suggest that successful coups result in a large increase in the military burden. However, when no effects or a decrease in the defense burden are found, it is often the consequence of a democratization process triggered by the coup. These results are in keeping with recent theoretical developments on the bargaining power of the military in authoritarian regimes. Failed coups, by contrast, produce a smaller, and mostly positive, effect on the military burden, possibly as a result of the incumbent’s strategy to avert further challenges to the stability of the regime by buying off the military. 相似文献
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Roberto Aliboni 《The international spectator : a quarterly journal of the Istituto affari internazionali》2013,48(1):17-30
The European Union and Russia are preparing to negotiate a new comprehensive agreement at a time when their bilateral relations have become increasingly prickly. On the one hand, Vladimir Putin's Russia is perceived as having gone undesirably far in reverting to a semi-authoritarian state and in exerting economic and political pressures on some pro-Western, former Soviet states. On the other hand, the EU's Russia policy remains ambivalent because of the continuing deference towards Moscow of a number of large European countries and the confrontational posture of some new EU member states. Other factors add to this deteriorating state of affairs. For one, there are a number of legal complications coming from the shape and scope of the new agreement. Perhaps more importantly, there are several political uncertainties, first and foremost the definition of those “common values” upon which the new treaty should be based. To get out of this quandary, the two sides will have to scale down their ambitions on the new agreement. A mutually acceptable formula might imply the negotiation of a concise “framework” treaty, accompanied in due time by sector-specific agreements. 相似文献
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Roberto Camagni Riccardo Cappellin 《The international spectator : a quarterly journal of the Istituto affari internazionali》2013,48(2):99-135
Democracy promotion in the middle east. Business as usual? La questione della democrazia nel mondo arabo ; stati, società e conflitti / a cura di Federica Bicchi, Laura Guazzone, Daniela Pioppi. ‐ Monza : Polimetrica, c2004. ‐ 396 p. ‐ (Islamica). ‐ ISBN 88–7699–008–9 相似文献
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Michael A. Stegman Roberto G. Quercia Janneke Ratcliffe Lei Ding Walter R. Davis 《Housing Policy Debate》2013,23(2):243-278
Abstract This article documents the growing importance of preventive servicing—business practices that emphasize early intervention in delinquency and default management practices that also help financially troubled borrowers avoid foreclosure. We suggest that the loan servicing side of the affordable housing delivery system may be underappreciated and undercapitalized. We use a database of more than 28,000 affordable housing loans to test several preventive servicing‐related propositions and find that after we control for loan and borrower characteristics, the likelihood that a delinquent mortgagor within this universe will ultimately default varies significantly across servicers. This suggests that loan servicing is an important factor in determining whether low‐ and moderate‐income borrowers who fall behind in their mortgage payments will end up losing their homes through foreclosure. It also suggests a need for policy makers to incorporate preventive servicing into affordable homeownership programs. 相似文献
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This paper develops an ordinal index to measure the openness of FDI policy regimes for individual countries. There has been a generalised increase in the index between 1990 and 2002. The most important determinants of variations in FDI flows across countries and over time are country size, the level of educational achievement, and growth. The openness index is positively associated with FDI flows, but its explanatory power is low. Liberalising approval procedures and lifting requirements that foreign companies enter into joint ventures with domestic firms encourage FDI. We conclude that the openness of the FDI regime operates as a factor enabling FDI, but that location advantages are paramount in determining the international allocation of FDI. We also turn the question around and ask what countries are more likely to impose restrictions on FDI. We find that lower levels of education and larger domestic markets are associated with greater restrictions on FDI. In addition, there is some evidence that better institutions are associated with lower FDI restrictions. 相似文献
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Roberto Catanesi M.D. Vito Martino M.D. Chiara Candelli M.D. Ph.D. Giuseppe Troccoli M.D. Ignazio Grattagliano Psy.D. Giancarlo Di Vella M.D. Ph.D. Felice Carabellese M.D. 《Journal of forensic sciences》2013,58(5):1388-1392
The aim of this study is to identify protective and risk factors related to the development of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) on a sample of survivors from a single plane crash. Eighteen survivors were examined 6 months following the event. The subjects all underwent psychiatric interviews, Clinician‐Administered PTSD Scale structured interviews, personality and cognitive tests. Only 38.9% of them presented with all of the symptoms of PTSD; 22.2% showed no symptoms for PTSD; remaining survivors exhibited emotional/affective symptoms related to the event. In addition to the severity of the traumatic event itself, other risk factors identified were the loss of a relative, the manifestation of depressive symptoms, and the severity of physical injuries sustained. Low levels of hostility and high levels of self‐efficacy represented protective factors against developing PTSD. 相似文献