The Reform Bubble Bursts

Books reviewed in this article:
Columbia Accident Investigation Board, Report, Volume One     

Adjusting for Confounding with Text Matching

We identify situations in which conditioning on text can address confounding in observational studies. We argue that a matching approach is particularly well-suited to this task, but existing matching methods are ill-equipped to handle high-dimensional text data. Our proposed solution is to estimate a low-dimensional summary of the text and condition on this summary via matching. We propose a method of text matching, topical inverse regression matching, that allows the analyst to match both on the topical content of confounding documents and the probability that each of these documents is treated. We validate our approach and illustrate the importance of conditioning on text to address confounding with two applications: the effect of perceptions of author gender on citation counts in the international relations literature and the effects of censorship on Chinese social media users.     

Children’s Use of a ‘Time Line’ to Indicate When Events Occurred

Children who allege abuse are often asked to provide temporal information such as when the events occurred. Yet, young children often have difficulty recalling temporal information due to their limited knowledge of temporal patterns and linguistic capabilities. As time is an abstract concept (we cannot see it), some investigators have begun to use ‘time-lines’ or pictorial representations of time to aid children. Yet, there is no published research testing whether children are able to use time-lines and whether they can provide adequate temporal information using them. We tested whether children could indicate the time-of-day of events using a pictorial time-line and then compared their responses to their parents’. Seven- to 8-year-olds were most consistent with parental estimates while 4-year-olds were least consistent. Responses from the 5- to 6-year-olds depended on the temporal task. Guessing and using general knowledge to estimate the time-of-day were ruled out, and so children were genuinely drawing on episodic memory when making time-line judgments. Thus, there was a developmental progression in children’s use of physical representations to communicate abstract information. These results are promising for the use of the time-line in forensic settings but much more research is needed.     

Isolation and Individualization of Conceptus and Maternal Tissues from Abortions and Placentas for Parentage Testing in Cases of Rape and Abandoned Newborns*

Abstract: Abortion specimens are often submitted to forensic laboratories as the only piece of physical evidence in rape and incest cases. The recovery of conceptus tissues from this evidence permits the use of paternity testing to evaluate suspects. In cases of abandoned newborns, the recovery of maternal tissue from the placenta allows for the direct comparison of genetic profiles between the suspected mother and the biological mother. We report on the identification and isolation of conceptus tissues from embryonic‐ and fetal‐period abortions, and maternal tissues from delivered placentas, by gross and low‐magnification examination with manual dissection. Hundreds of single‐source samples have been successfully recovered by this method and short tandem repeat typed using standard forensic procedures. We additionally describe extraembryonic tissues that can be recovered and typed in the absence of the embryo proper. We conclude that an expertise and protocols can be developed by forensic laboratories for the routine analysis of this evidence.