The entrapment defense

Most American jurisdictions follow either asubjective or anobjective approach to the entrapment defense. In order to test some of the differences between the two approaches, student jurors viewed a videotaped cocaine trial and were presented with either subjective test or objective test instructions. The admission of prior conviction evidence was also varied. The jurors deliberated, returned a verdict, and then completed a questionnaire that measured their understanding of the instructions and trial facts. Results show that, first, juror comprehension of the principal features of the objective test is very poor. It is suggested that an effort be made to simplify instructions describing the objective test. Should simplification not improve comprehension, it is argued that the judge, not the jury, should decide the entrapment defense when the objective test is used. Second, admission of a prior conviction has a significant impact on verdicts in the subjective test condition, but not in the objective test condition. This finding suggests that the subjective test instructions are effective in encouraging jurors to use prior convictions as evidence of guilt. The content of the objective test instruction may also account for part of the difference in impact. Jurors in the objective test condition were instructed not to take the defendant's predisposition into account, and a substantial minority of the jurors under-stood this aspect of the instruction.     

Long-range U.S. Manpower forecasts in retrospect: How accurate were we?

This paper compares and evaluates the accuracy of long-range occupational manpower forecasts made for 1980 in the early 1970s by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and by the author. The different assumptions and forecasting methodologies utilized are discussed, and the occupational forecasts are then compared to the actual 1980 employment data. The relative accuracy of the different sets of forecasts is assessed according to several different criteria, and the larger question of the usefulness of either set of forecasts is addressed. It is found that neither set of forecasts was clearly superior, that the accuracy of both sets of forecasts was generally poor, and that the projections for individual occupations were often so wide of the mark as to be of questionable usefulness for manpower planning and vocational guidance. The implications of these findings for manpower forecasting are discussed.     

Advance price announcements and antitrust policy

This paper analyzes the competitive significance of advance price announcements. In the model, advance price announcements are used by firms to communicate private information on demand or cost. By so sharing the information, the firms are able to set their prices at more profitable levels. When the advance price announcements resolve demand uncertainty, profits rise and consumer surplus falls. Interestingly, when the advance price announcements resolve cost uncertainty, both profits and consumer welfare rise. Finally, we examine U.S. antitrust policy regarding price announcements.