Duration of the time to reconviction: Evidence from UK prisoner discharge data

Duration models were used to investigate reconviction risks for a sample of 34,126 offenders released from prison in England and Wales during 1998. Different versions of the Cox proportional hazards model were applied to a comprehensive data set covering several offense types. Factors such as age (modelled using bands rather than a linear or quadratic format), gender, convictions-history, and offense type were found to be strongly associated with the risk of reconviction. Interactions between factors were also included and it was shown that the discrepancy between the risk of reconviction for males and females became weaker as the number of previous convictions increased. The study helped identify the subgroups of offenders for whom reconviction risks are greatest and the times when they seem to be most vulnerable to reconviction. Implications are explored for the design of prisoner resettlement programs and the prioritization of offenders for more intensive forms of intervention.     

Theoretical and empirical specification of a model of informal labeling

Recently criminologists have begun to explore the importance of disaggregating frequency measures of self-reported delinquency into the separate decisions of initiation and continuation. Given that labeling makes predictions concerning continuation, the purpose of this paper is twofold. The first is to test the ability of an informal labeling model to predict the decision to continue delinquent behavior once it is initiated. The second purpose is to address the broader question of whether disaggregation matters. The findings support the idea that the informal labeling model is predictive of the decision to continue delinquent behavior. The findings also suggest that, at least for a measure of general delinquency, there are some differences to be found by choosing the appropriate sample and form of the dependent variable.     

Constitutional Reform, the Lord Chancellor, and Human Rights: The Battle of Form and Substance

This article examines the impact of the Human Rights Act on the government's constitutional proposals for reform of the role of the Lord Chancellor and the appointment of the judiciary. It also looks at the uncertain acceptance of a 'human rights' culture by the department charged with lead responsibility for its implementation. It concludes that the government went further than was required in reforming the role of the Lord Chancellor. As a consequence, considerable - and possibly undue – weight now hangs on the enlarged role of the Lord Chief Justice. Meanwhile, the Department of Constitutional Affairs and its ministers have rejected the 'rule of law' brief of the Lord Chancellor without clarity as to where such responsibilities might now be adequately located within government.     

Federal Reimbursement for Mandates on State and Local Governments

One of the remedies sought by state and local officials for the growing burden of federal mandates is a mandate reimbursement law. A major purpose of mandate reimbursement is to deter Congress from imposing excessive costs on state and local governments by making it fully accountable for its actions. The paper begins by extending the economic theory of grants to mandates and reimbursed mandates. It goes on to assess the benefits and costs of mandate reimbursement, and to distinguish mandates that should be reimbursed, should a reimbursement program prove desirable, from those that should not. Then, using the economic theory of grants and mandates, the paper compares reimbursed mandates with two alternatives for accomplishing the same objective, compensating grants and procedural rules. It concludes that the latter are more promising than mandate reimbursement.     

Project USA: American competitiveness and what must be done to restore it

The United States today faces a loss of influence as a world power, a reduction in American independence as a policymaker, and a decline in the standard of living on which Americans have come to depend. History teaches that nations weaker and less productive than the United States can rise to become economic powerhouses and rapidly increase their standards of living. History also teaches that nations failing to recognize their fundamental problems will inevitably decline. American politicians must face what is abundantly clear: the United States is losing ground and must act quickly to reverse its course. This White Paper outlines what must be done. Information about the nation's current status must be analyzed and communicated. Incentives to improve the level of competence in government must be provided and maintained. The emphasis of government policy must be changed to reflect broad economic and technological interests as opposed to special interests. Savings must be encouraged and increased. Infrastructure must be improved Tax laws must be modified to help bring these changes about. Economic and technological issues must be elevated to the importance they require. American thinking must reflect the new realities: that the age of leadership through military power is over, that the requirements for success in the world of the 1990s and beyond require a sound and growing economy that is internationally competitive. The US can accomplish these goals only through foundation-shaking, comprehensive, fundamental changealong the lines we propose herein.This paper is the executive summary (with minor editing modifications) of a white paper that is available from Cornell University's Johnson Graduate School of Management.     

Reviews

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