A Good Place to Bury Bad News? Hiding the Detail in the Geography on the Labour Party’s Website

But actually, he thought as he re–adjusted the Ministry of Plenty's figures, it was not even forgery. It was merely the substitution of one piece of nonsense for another. Most of the material that you were dealing with had no connexion with anything in the real world, not even the kind of connexion that is contained in a direct lie. Statistics were just as much a fantasy in their original version as in their rectified version.     

Zimbabwe: continuities and changes

ABSTRACT

November 2017 will forever be etched in the minds of Zimbabweans, as the moment involving the end of Robert Mugabe’s 37-year rule and the beginning of a post-Mugabe ‘era’ under the leadership of Emmerson Mnangagwa. It also might be considered as a watershed moment in Zimbabwean history, or at least as having the potential to be so. However, identifying key moments in Zimbabwe’s history, and continuities and changes over time, involves engaging in historical periodisation. Periodising the past is never straightforward and leads to contestations at an analytical level. Further, periodisation often has a pronounced political dimension, such that Mnangagwa’s ZANU-PF is engaged in periodisation in seeking to distance itself from Mugabe’s rule. This opening article addresses these points, and it seeks to show how the following articles (mainly written, unknowingly, at the cusp of Mugabe’s endgame) facilitate reflection on continuities and changes in contemporary Zimbabwe.     

Enhanced kinship analysis and STR-based DNA typing for human identification in mass fatality incidents: the Swissair flight 111 disaster

A bioinformatic tool was developed to assist with the victim identification initiative that followed the Swissair Flight 111 disaster. Making use of short tandem repeat (STR) DNA typing data generated with AmpFlSTR Profiler Plus (PP) and AmpFlSTR COfiler(CO) kits, the software systematically compared each available STR genotype with every other genotype. The matching algorithm was based on the search for: (i) direct matches to genotypes derived from personal effects; and (ii) potential kinship associations between victims and next-of-kin, as measured by allele sharing at individual loci. The software greatly assisted parentage analysis by enabling kinship evaluation in situations where complete parentage trios were unavailable and, in some situations, with distantly related relatives. Exclusion of fortuitous kinship associations (FKA) was made possible through the recovery at the disaster site of at least one remains for every sought-after victim, and was incorporated into the kinship software. The data from the 13 combined STR loci produced 6 and 23 times fewer FKAs when compared with PP alone and AmpFlSTR Profiler (PR) alone, respectively. Identification leads or confirmations of identification were obtained for 218 victims for which DNA reference samples (personal effects and kin) had been submitted. Confirmation of an inferred kinship association was sought through frequency and likelihood calculations, as well as corroborative data from other identification modalities. The use of a simple, yet powerful, automated genotype comparison approach and the use of megaplexes with high power of discrimination (PD) values extended considerably the identification capabilities in the case of the Swissair disaster. The DNA typing identification modality proved to be a valuable component of the large arsenal of identification tools deployed in the aftermath of this disaster.     

Systematic analysis of stutter percentages and allele peak height and peak area ratios at heterozygous STR loci for forensic casework and database samples

To assist the interpretation of STR DNA typing results from forensic casework samples containing mixtures, the range of heterozygous allele peak height and peak area ratios (HR) and stutter percentages (stutter %) for the loci comprised in the AmpFlSTR Profiler Plus (PP) kit were assessed on 468 database and 275 casework single source samples. Stutter % medians were similar for database and casework samples, ranging from 2% to 7%. The upper limit of the stutter value range was 16%, calculated as median +3 SD, although lower locus-specific values could be used. HR medians were 93 +/- 6.5% for database samples, 88 +/- 12% for casework samples. For casework samples, the maximum signal imbalance noted was 52%, calculated as median -3 SD. No significant difference was observed between peak height and peak area calculated values. This study shows the importance of selecting the proper reference database for the establishment of HR threshold values.     

Fatal firearm wounds: a clinicopathologic study

Firearm-related injuries are a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in South Africa. This retrospective autopsy study included all firearm-related fatalities seen at a central mortuary in Durban. These cases had initially been assessed by a clinician before death, from July 1998 to June 1999.A total of 322 cases of fatal gunshot wounds were reviewed. Medical records and postmortem findings were compared by data capture onto a spreadsheet. Twenty-eight cases were excluded because of surgical alteration of the wounds, making autopsy evaluation impossible. In 50.7% of cases, the number of wounds was correctly identified and in 55.1% the position was correctly identified. In only 36.1% of cases were the entry and exit wounds correctly identified. The total number of missed wounds was 504 (48.3% of cases). The majority of missed wounds were on the upper limbs (25%), with the anterior trunk (21.8%) and lower limbs (18.5%) making up the remainder. This study demonstrates that physicians in South Africa do not adequately document and interpret gunshot wounds, which may influence the treatment of the patient and have medicolegal consequences. Emphasis should be placed on undergraduate and postgraduate teaching for physicians to correctly identify, interpret, and document firearm wounds.     

STR DNA typing: increased sensitivity and efficient sample consumption using reduced PCR reaction volumes

Improvements in detection limits/sensitivity and lower sample consumption are potential benefits of reducing PCR reaction volumes used in forensic DNA typing of crime scene samples. This premise was studied first with experimental mixtures and a nine-loci megaplex, which demonstrated stochiometric amplification and accurate detection. Next, adjudicated casework samples were subjected to amplification under 15 different template DNA to PCR reaction volume ratios. Reduction of PCR reaction volume and DNA down to 10 microL and 0.500 ng, respectively, produced identical profiles with the same signal intensity and heterozygous allele peak height ratio (HR). Reduction to 5 microL and 0.063 ng yielded HR values that were slightly affected in one to three STR loci. PCR reaction volume reduction can enhance detection and sensitivity while reducing the consumption of irreplaceable crime scene samples.     

Government Hedging: Motivation, Implementation, and Evaluation

This article examines option hedging strategies that enable politicians to manage budgetary risk. While the theoretical risk management arguments are general, the simulation analysis considers the example of oil revenue risk in Texas, and estimates the costs and benefits of an option hedging program. To evaluate government option hedging strategies, the study develops a hedge quotient measure that compares the future value of realized revenues plus net option proceeds to the future value of expected revenue. The average hedge quotient is found to be lower for the option hedging strategy than for the unhedged position, illustrating the cost of an option hedging program. Nevertheless, option hedging effectively manages extreme downside risk and stops large budget deficits from occurring. Politicians may also like option hedging because it preserves the potential of realizing budget surpluses.