Ignoramus, Ignorabimus? On Uncertainty in Ecological Inference

Thomas Gschwend Center for Doctoral Studies in Social and Behavioral Sciences, University of Mannheim, D7, 27, 68131 Mannheim, Germany e-mail: gschwend{at}uni-mannheim.de Ron J. Johnston School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1SS, UK e-mail: r.johnston{at}bristol.ac.uk e-mail: elff{at}sowi.uni-mannheim.de (corresponding author) Models of ecological inference (EI) have to rely on crucialassumptions about the individual-level data-generating process,which cannot be tested because of the unavailability of thesedata. However, these assumptions may be violated by the unknowndata and this may lead to serious bias of estimates and predictions.The amount of bias, however, cannot be assessed without informationthat is unavailable in typical applications of EI. We thereforeconstruct a model that at least approximately accounts for theadditional, nonsampling error that may result from possiblebias incurred by an EI procedure, a model that builds on thePrinciple of Maximum Entropy. By means of a systematic simulationexperiment, we examine the performance of prediction intervalsbased on this second-stage Maximum Entropy model. The resultsof this simulation study suggest that these prediction intervalsare at least approximately correct if all possible configurationsof the unknown data are taken into account. Finally, we applyour method to a real-world example, where we actually know thetrue values and are able to assess the performance of our method:the prediction of district-level percentages of split-ticketvoting in the 1996 General Election of New Zealand. It turnsout that in 95.5% of the New Zealand voting districts, the actualpercentage of split-ticket votes lies inside the 95% predictionintervals constructed by our method. Authors' note: We thank three anonymous reviewers for helpfulcomments and suggestions on earlier versions of this paper.An appendix giving some technical background information concerningour proposed method, as well as data, R code, and C code toreplicate analyses presented in this paper are available fromthe Political Analysis Web site. Later versions of the codewill be packaged into an R library and made publicly availableon CRAN (http://cran.r-project.org) and on the correspondingauthor's Web site.     

White-collar,organised and cyber crimes in the media: some contrasts and similarities

This article examines the media reportage of white-collar crimes, organised crimes and cybercrimes, principally in the British but also in the US media. It illustrates the ways in which different newspapers depict crime seriousness and how some defendants adapt to these portrayals. It examines competing explanatory models and suggests that although reportage has an ideological component, ‘news values’ and production pressures as well as ‘action triggers’ such as prosecutions or regulatory interventions are important.

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East Meets West in Anti-Money Laundering and Anti-Terrorist Finance: Policy Dialogue and Differentiation on Security, the Timber Trade and ‘Alternative’ Banking

This paper compares and contrasts South East Asian and European Union countries’ perceptions of the priorities for anti money laundering (AML) and anti terrorist finance (ATF) in relation to three industries: security goods and services; the timber trade; and ‘informal’ value transfer and banking services. It might be expected that all countries would equally support each of these aspects of AML/ATF policies, without differentiating between the industries generating the proceeds. As this paper will show, however, historical experiences, contemporary political relations and patterns of trade shape countries’ approaches, resulting in distinctive enthusiasms and reservations. In a nutshell, the EU points most strongly to products and services originating in Asia as posing AML/CTF risks, and locates primary responsibility for monitoring and control as falling within Asia - a projection of risk and responsibility that is reciprocated by Asian countries. Asian countries perceive a need for tighter control of dangerous products exported by the west, for example, small arms and light weapons, and of related money laundering circuits. Asian and European policy makers increasingly articulate concerns over illegal logging and related laundering, however European importers and their governments see responsibilities for this as falling primarily within Asia. Finally, the EU (like the US) perceives high levels of laundering risk in ‘informal’ value transfer/banking services, in which Asian-run businesses have a global competitive advantage. For the future, as the international balance of trade shifts, and as Asia increases its influence in international fora including those concerned with AML/CTF, so the region’s policy preferences may be expected to carry more weight.

Books in review

the author of numberous works in U.S. Jewish history and culture. Her most recent book is The Wonders of America: Reinventing Jewish Culture, 1880–1950.     

PARENTAL CONFLICT RESOLUTION

Six-, 12-, and 15-month follow-up data are presented evaluating a program for high-conflict parents. Funded by a grant from Health and Human Services, the program's content reflects an extensive review of research literature, including the relevant literature on personality disorders. Introduced in Phoenix, Arizona in October 1999, the program has served more than 1,000 families in several jurisdictions. Whereas other programs for entrenched, high-conflict cases are typically time intensive, involving 2 to 6 months, this is a one-time 4-hour program. As such, the authors are heartened to report a suprisingly positive—and enduring—response from the parents.     

The Implications of National Competition Policy

The Competition Policy Reform Bill 1995 is part of a national policy package which aims to free up competition in Australian markets. The objective is to systematically remove anti-competitive behaviour so that efficiency is improved to the public benefit.
While one can endorse the concept that economic efficiency is best served in a purely competitive market, where businesses can get on with their responsibilitiy to maximise profits, concerns exist as to whether it is possible to impose legislatively and unilaterally an economic principle or philosophy on a nation that will achieve its lofty objectives.
These proposals were developed before the 1996 federal election.     

The MMPI and adolescent patients in a state hospital

Because of the increasing number of adolescents being admitted to state hospitals and because of the lack of sufficient information regarding the use of the MMPI with these patients, this study was undertaken in order to provide normative data for the MMPI with this particular clinical population. The subjects were 113 male and 97 female psychiatric patients from the Adolescent Unit (AU) at Rusk State Hospital (RSH). As each patient was admitted to the AU, he was scheduled for psychological testing, with the MMPI being a part of this testing. The results indicate that, with this particular psychiatric population, background variables had no significant relationship to MMPI performance. The validity scales were characterized by an extremely elevated F scale for males and females, while male and female performance on the clinical scales showed elevation (above T score of 70) on the Pd and Sc scales. In conclusion, it seems that the most outstanding characteristic of young state hospital patients on the MMPI is extreme elevation on the Pd and Sc scales and the F scale. In interpreting the MMPI, it would seem necessary then to reevaluate the meaning being associated with these scales, especially the F scale, when dealing with this particular psychiatric population.Received B.S. and M.S. in Psychology at North Texas State University in 1967 and 1968. Interests are personality characteristics of psychiatric in-patient adolescents and personality characteristics of drug users, drug experimenters, and non-drug users. In general, most of his interests are confined to describing the characteristics of psychiatric in-patients in our state hospitals.Received A.S. in Data Processing at Miami-State Junior College in 1966; received B.S. in Mathematics at the University of South Florida in 1968; received M.S. in Statistics at Virginia Polytechnic Institute in 1970. Major interest is in statistical methodologies in the field of mental health and mental retardation.Received B.S. and M.S. in Psychology at North Texas State University in 1968 and 1969, respectively. Major interest is in personality characteristics of adolescent patients in our state hospitals.