Government Hedging: Motivation, Implementation, and Evaluation

This article examines option hedging strategies that enable politicians to manage budgetary risk. While the theoretical risk management arguments are general, the simulation analysis considers the example of oil revenue risk in Texas, and estimates the costs and benefits of an option hedging program. To evaluate government option hedging strategies, the study develops a hedge quotient measure that compares the future value of realized revenues plus net option proceeds to the future value of expected revenue. The average hedge quotient is found to be lower for the option hedging strategy than for the unhedged position, illustrating the cost of an option hedging program. Nevertheless, option hedging effectively manages extreme downside risk and stops large budget deficits from occurring. Politicians may also like option hedging because it preserves the potential of realizing budget surpluses.     

Religiosity and stress for police officers

Much of the research which has been conducted to date regarding stress and police officers has focused on identifying the presence of stress, associating stress with specific stressors, and comparing levels of stress between police officers and members of other professions. This project focused on the influence of one potential mediator of stress—religious activity. Data were collected from a population of law enforcement officers from a medium sized city and from a comparison group of firefighters from the same city. The data indicate that religiosity has two factors (1) traditional beliefs and activities and (2) religious satisfaction and perceived influence of religion on subject’s everyday lives. The second factor was found to be negatively related to stress for police officers. As religious satisfaction and perceived influence increase, stress increases.     

Changing the Tobacco Use Management System: Blending Systems Thinking with Actor–Network Theory

Managing “wicked” issues like the tobacco epidemic is addressed using a combination of Open Systems Thinking (OST) and Actor–Network Theory (ANT). OST was used to construct a model of the tobacco problem as a management system acting in a broader environment. This highlighted several problems with the current system but provided no mechanism for reform. ANT, the “sociology of translation,” was used for understanding how change occurs. Unlike systems thinking, ANT focuses the contest for change on heterogeneous networks of human and nonhuman actors that must be constructed through a process of defining and defending models of change, building alliances, gaining public acceptance, and finally achieving institutional acceptance of the reform (or of some compromise). We then show how this dual approach can shed light on a current challenge in controlling tobacco, the issue of product regulation, and the broader issue of harm reduction versus harm elimination.     

We’ve got them on the list: contacting,canvassing and voting in a British general election campaign

Many voters are canvassed by British political parties in the months and weeks immediately preceding a general election – but many are not. The parties are selective in whom they make contact with, and where. They focus on those in marginal constituencies who are likely to vote for them – and having identified them early in the process they contact them again, seeking to sustain that support in the seats where the contest overall will be either won or lost. A large panel survey conducted immediately before and after the 2010 general election allows detailed insight into that pattern of canvassing, identifying who the parties contacted, and where, in the six months prior to the election being called, and then who were contacted during the month immediately preceding polling day, and in how many different ways. Each party focused on its own supporters in the marginal constituencies, and in the middle-class neighbourhoods within those constituencies, but whereas the Conservatives, expecting to win the election, campaigned most intensively in the seats they lost by relatively small margins at the previous contest, Labour and the Liberal Democrats fought defensive campaigns in the seats that they won then. Such tactics were successful; the more ways in which respondents were contacted by a party, the more likely they were to vote for it.     

The Bookman

正There is a bookman here in Beijing.You will find him every day in the same location,sitting outside Tim's Texas Barbeque near Beijing's Silk Market He does not have a store.He does not sell from a street kiosk.Instead he spreads out his blanket on the street and sets up his shop.     

Program Budgeting and Accountability in Local Government

Much has been written about program budgeting and its relevance to improved efficiency and effectiveness. However, there is little discussion about the relationship between the use of program budgeting and accountability. While, organisations using program budgeting focus on the issues of performance, the accountability of management to an elected body, such as a local council has been given little attention. In this article three questions are posed: (1) Is the performance information available to enable councillors to form a judgment about management's performance?; (2) Is management involved in determining issues of policy, such as objectives, programs and performance measurement?; and (3) Are councillors confronted by a greater volume of budgetary documentation but with no increase in time to consider it? The results show that program budgeting does not always enhance accountability in local government.