A Good Place to Bury Bad News? Hiding the Detail in the Geography on the Labour Party’s Website

But actually, he thought as he re–adjusted the Ministry of Plenty's figures, it was not even forgery. It was merely the substitution of one piece of nonsense for another. Most of the material that you were dealing with had no connexion with anything in the real world, not even the kind of connexion that is contained in a direct lie. Statistics were just as much a fantasy in their original version as in their rectified version.     

Enhanced kinship analysis and STR-based DNA typing for human identification in mass fatality incidents: the Swissair flight 111 disaster

A bioinformatic tool was developed to assist with the victim identification initiative that followed the Swissair Flight 111 disaster. Making use of short tandem repeat (STR) DNA typing data generated with AmpFlSTR Profiler Plus (PP) and AmpFlSTR COfiler(CO) kits, the software systematically compared each available STR genotype with every other genotype. The matching algorithm was based on the search for: (i) direct matches to genotypes derived from personal effects; and (ii) potential kinship associations between victims and next-of-kin, as measured by allele sharing at individual loci. The software greatly assisted parentage analysis by enabling kinship evaluation in situations where complete parentage trios were unavailable and, in some situations, with distantly related relatives. Exclusion of fortuitous kinship associations (FKA) was made possible through the recovery at the disaster site of at least one remains for every sought-after victim, and was incorporated into the kinship software. The data from the 13 combined STR loci produced 6 and 23 times fewer FKAs when compared with PP alone and AmpFlSTR Profiler (PR) alone, respectively. Identification leads or confirmations of identification were obtained for 218 victims for which DNA reference samples (personal effects and kin) had been submitted. Confirmation of an inferred kinship association was sought through frequency and likelihood calculations, as well as corroborative data from other identification modalities. The use of a simple, yet powerful, automated genotype comparison approach and the use of megaplexes with high power of discrimination (PD) values extended considerably the identification capabilities in the case of the Swissair disaster. The DNA typing identification modality proved to be a valuable component of the large arsenal of identification tools deployed in the aftermath of this disaster.     

Systematic analysis of stutter percentages and allele peak height and peak area ratios at heterozygous STR loci for forensic casework and database samples

To assist the interpretation of STR DNA typing results from forensic casework samples containing mixtures, the range of heterozygous allele peak height and peak area ratios (HR) and stutter percentages (stutter %) for the loci comprised in the AmpFlSTR Profiler Plus (PP) kit were assessed on 468 database and 275 casework single source samples. Stutter % medians were similar for database and casework samples, ranging from 2% to 7%. The upper limit of the stutter value range was 16%, calculated as median +3 SD, although lower locus-specific values could be used. HR medians were 93 +/- 6.5% for database samples, 88 +/- 12% for casework samples. For casework samples, the maximum signal imbalance noted was 52%, calculated as median -3 SD. No significant difference was observed between peak height and peak area calculated values. This study shows the importance of selecting the proper reference database for the establishment of HR threshold values.     

STR DNA typing: increased sensitivity and efficient sample consumption using reduced PCR reaction volumes

Improvements in detection limits/sensitivity and lower sample consumption are potential benefits of reducing PCR reaction volumes used in forensic DNA typing of crime scene samples. This premise was studied first with experimental mixtures and a nine-loci megaplex, which demonstrated stochiometric amplification and accurate detection. Next, adjudicated casework samples were subjected to amplification under 15 different template DNA to PCR reaction volume ratios. Reduction of PCR reaction volume and DNA down to 10 microL and 0.500 ng, respectively, produced identical profiles with the same signal intensity and heterozygous allele peak height ratio (HR). Reduction to 5 microL and 0.063 ng yielded HR values that were slightly affected in one to three STR loci. PCR reaction volume reduction can enhance detection and sensitivity while reducing the consumption of irreplaceable crime scene samples.     

Government Hedging: Motivation, Implementation, and Evaluation

This article examines option hedging strategies that enable politicians to manage budgetary risk. While the theoretical risk management arguments are general, the simulation analysis considers the example of oil revenue risk in Texas, and estimates the costs and benefits of an option hedging program. To evaluate government option hedging strategies, the study develops a hedge quotient measure that compares the future value of realized revenues plus net option proceeds to the future value of expected revenue. The average hedge quotient is found to be lower for the option hedging strategy than for the unhedged position, illustrating the cost of an option hedging program. Nevertheless, option hedging effectively manages extreme downside risk and stops large budget deficits from occurring. Politicians may also like option hedging because it preserves the potential of realizing budget surpluses.     

Religiosity and stress for police officers

Much of the research which has been conducted to date regarding stress and police officers has focused on identifying the presence of stress, associating stress with specific stressors, and comparing levels of stress between police officers and members of other professions. This project focused on the influence of one potential mediator of stress—religious activity. Data were collected from a population of law enforcement officers from a medium sized city and from a comparison group of firefighters from the same city. The data indicate that religiosity has two factors (1) traditional beliefs and activities and (2) religious satisfaction and perceived influence of religion on subject’s everyday lives. The second factor was found to be negatively related to stress for police officers. As religious satisfaction and perceived influence increase, stress increases.     

Changing the Tobacco Use Management System: Blending Systems Thinking with Actor–Network Theory

Managing “wicked” issues like the tobacco epidemic is addressed using a combination of Open Systems Thinking (OST) and Actor–Network Theory (ANT). OST was used to construct a model of the tobacco problem as a management system acting in a broader environment. This highlighted several problems with the current system but provided no mechanism for reform. ANT, the “sociology of translation,” was used for understanding how change occurs. Unlike systems thinking, ANT focuses the contest for change on heterogeneous networks of human and nonhuman actors that must be constructed through a process of defining and defending models of change, building alliances, gaining public acceptance, and finally achieving institutional acceptance of the reform (or of some compromise). We then show how this dual approach can shed light on a current challenge in controlling tobacco, the issue of product regulation, and the broader issue of harm reduction versus harm elimination.