何为现代化

本文是两位政治学家为《布莱克维尔社会学百科全书》所撰写的词条。内容涉及现代化的含义,现代化理论的缘起、发展过程和不同流派,现代化所包含的六个维度,现代化在系统层面、个体层面和社会关系层面等三个视野中所体现出来的总性体特征,以及现代化与文化变迁、民主、人类发展和社会资本的关系。     

The incidence of alleged sexual abuse in 603 family court cases

The conflict and animosity that sometimes accompanies child custody disputes can give rise to the propagation of allegations of child sexual abuse. To characterize the magnitude of the problem, the present study attempted to determine whether and to what extent child sexual abuse allegations predominate in family court litigation. The entire one-year caseload of a county family court docket was systematically reviewed and coded. Methodical evaluation of 603 family court files yielded base rates of pertinent allegations and other information profiling the cases. The findings did not support the contention that sexual abuse allegations are commonplace in child custody disputes. Sexual abuse allegations were made in 2% of cases in which custody or access was contested and in only 0.8% of the cases overal. Implications of the findings for future research were discussed.The authors gratefully acknowledge the assistance of the Honorable William R. Campbell and Barbara Scott, Clerk of Court for the South Carolina Fifth Judicial Circuit, as well as the contributions of Angie Newton, Frank Robinson, and Kimberly Ellis in the data collection process.     

Allies and Other Strangers: European Integration and the American “Empire by Invitation”

Current tensions between the United States and Europe have raised questions about the future of the transatlantic relationship, though historical analysis suggests that the good old days were not perfect either. This article considers the history of U.S.-European relations and concludes that they have always been complex, as neither Americans nor Europeans have been sure how an integrated Europe would fit into an Atlantic partnership. It concludes that the future of the West depends on Europeans’ developing on their own a clearer vision of the concrete shape and international role of the eu.     

Social science and the Courts

Social scientists have increasingly become involved in the submission of amicus curiae or friend of the court briefs in legal cases being decided by state and federal courts. This increase has triggered considerable debate about the use of briefs to communicate relevant social science research. This article evaluates the strengths and weaknesses of various methods of summarizing social science research for the courts. It also reviews the procedures for submitting briefs developed by the American Psychology-Law Society which, in collaboration with the American Psychological Association, has submitted its first brief inMaryland v. Craig, a case recently decided by the U.S. Supreme Court.The authors wish to thank James Ogloff, Kathy Roesch, and Claudia Worrell for their comments on an earlier draft     

A decision support system model for technology transfer

Technology transfer is the process by which technology originating at one institutional setting is adapted for use in another. A major impediment to the implementation of new technologies to assist with mangerial decision-making problems is a lack of communication between the technology and management communities. Development of a tool designed to bridge the technology transfer gap was the goal of this research. The result is a prototype software package which may be used on an interactive computer terminal by a manager for assistance in designing a decision support system (DSS). The four primary research tasks were:

1. Develop a conceptual model of the DSS design process.
2. Select and adapt, or create, appropriate software to mechanize the model.
3. Develop a knowledge base to describe the interactiveness of various organization variables and managerial decision-making needs.
4. Collect and analyze interview data and implement resultant production rules on the model.

Tasks 1 and 2 were accomplished first to establish the feasibility of this effort. An interview instrument was developed for Task 3. And, corporate managers from several firms were interviewed to accomplish Task 4. Using this data, a prototype production rule model (called DECAIDS for DECISION AIDS) was constructed which supports managerial decision-making from the EMYCIN production rule system used at Stanford University. The purpose of this article is to introduce the need for a Decision Support System Model. A complete copy of this research can be obtained through University Microfilms International, 300 N. Zeeb Road, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48106, from the Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California 93940, or the Defense Technical Information Center, Cameron Station, Alexandria, Virginia 22314. The title is “An Interactive Decision Support System for Technology Transfer Pertaining to Organization and Management”, 1980.     

Fear of crime: Who is most vulnerable?

This study investigates the relationship of demographic, psychosocial, and crime-related factors to fear of crime. Data were collected from 1,499 respondents to a national public opinion survey. A discriminant analysis was used to determine those factors which contribute most to respondents' fear of crime. Overall, 12 variables were found to explain 45.7 percent of the variance in fear of crime. Demographic variables such as sex, the size of the place where the respondent lives, age, marital status, and the number of persons living with the respondent were the most important variables discriminating between fearful and nonfearful respondents. Psychosocial and crime-related variables were found to be less important than demographic variables in discriminating between fearful and nonfearful respondents.     

South Asian nuclear arms competition: An American perspective∗

The analysis of nuclear arms competition in South Asia forms part of a much larger study of American relations with the region after the Cold War carried out under the auspices of The Asia Society. The nuclear policies of both India and Pakistan enjoy strong domestic political support. While a case can be made that a rudimentary state of nuclear deterrence exists between New Delhi and Islamabad, this may be undermined by deployment on both sides of ballistic missiles.