A model for disaggregating political change

We present a model for identifying the components of aggregate change in an electorate between two points in time. When the electorate is constant in size, change in the mean opinion disaggregates into two components: conversion among those who continue to participate in the electorate (Stayers), and replacement of those who drop out of the electorate at Time₁ (Dropouts) by Newcomers to the electorate at Time₂. We add to this simple formulation the possibility of variation in the size of the electorate. When an electorate expands, the model includes a mobilization term to accommodate the fact that there are more Newcomers at Time₂ than Dropouts at Time₁. When an electorate shrinks in size, the demobilization term reflects the fact that Newcomers as a group are smaller than Dropouts. The model includes appropriate weights for each component so that the change in opinion (or any other aggregate characteristic in the electorate) can be allocated across the three components. We apply the model to Iowa caucus attenders in both parties between 1984 and 1988, and we suggest that the model can be also productively applied to a variety of contexts besides nomination politics, where fluctuations in the size of electorates are significant.Ronald B. Rapoport. College of William and Mary.     

Myth and American politics

Accumulating tensions call into question the sustainability of the American political system, which ultimately depends on public faith in the justifying myth. This article takes sustainability as a policy problem, and attempts to reconstruct the significance of recent, scattered events in American politics from the standpoint of central theory in the policy sciences. The resulting construct emphasizes the significance of intellectuals in the decision processes of modern society and the continuing task of the policy sciences.     

Books in review

She has written widely on sociological and cultural aspects of psychoanalysis. Her most recent book, Feminists and Freudians: A Comparative Perspective,has just been published in German and is forthcoming in English.     

Young adults' scores on the defining issues test as a function of a “self” versus “other” presentation mode

One hundred college students were randomly divided into four groups and were administered the standard version (i.e., other-orientation) of the Defining Issues Test (DIT) and/or a Modified version (i.e., self-orientation) of the same instrument on two separate occasions. Subjects displayed greater amounts of principled moral reasoning when responding to the standard (other-orientation) rather than the modified (self-orientation) version of the DIT. Also, significant test-retest reliability was obtained for the standard, but not the modified, version of the DIT. The role of affective factors in the evaluation of moral problems involving the self versus hypothetical others was discussed.Portions of this paper were presented at the annual meetings of the Midwestern Psychological Association, St. Louis, Missouri, May 1980.Received M.A. from the State University of New York at Oswego. Current research interests are moral development, social cognition across the life-span.Received Ph.D. from Purdue University. Current research interests are children's cognitive development, eidetic imagery, and moral thinking.Received Ph.D. from the University of Wisconsin, Madison. Current research interests are logical concept development and moral and political development.     

Selective attention and self-control in delinquent adolescents

Research studies are briefly reviewed to examine the hypothesis that delinquent adolescents may process information in a different manner than non-delinquents. Studies suggest that delinquents may have less control over which information they attend to, may expose themselves to more stimulation, may process information more slowly, and may selectively attend to different information than matched controls. Findings from a recent study are presented in support of the latter hypothesis. A clinical example illustrates how these attention differences may appear in the course of treatment.This work was conducted while Dr. Rosenthal was a Clinical Research Training Fellow in Adolescence in a program jointly sponsored by the Adolescent Program of the Illinois State Psychiatric Institute, the Institute for Psychosomatic and Psychiatric Research and Training at Michael Reese Hospital and Medical Center, and by the Departments of Behavioral Science (Human Development) and Psychiatry of the University of Chicago. The training program was funded by Public Health Service grant T32MH14668.A version of this paper was presented at the Conference on the Psychology of Adolescence, Chicago, June 20–21, 1980. Portions of this article are based upon the doctoral dissertation submitted by Frank Lani in partial fulfillment of the Ph.D. degree, Loyola University, Chicago, Illinois.Received his Ph.D. in clinical psychology at Vanderbilt University. Current research interests include delinquency, hyperkinesis, and evaluation of hospital treatment.Received his Ph.D. in clinical psychology at Loyola University. Current research interests include social cognition in delinquency.     

Moral structure and moral content: Their relationship to personality

The relationship between personality as embodied in the moral content of the Survey of Ethical Attitudes (SEA) and moral structure as measured by the Kohlberg Moral Judgment Interview (MJI) was investigated using 99 male college students. No relationship was found between scores on the SEA and Moral Maturity Scores on the MJI, although this finding was qualified by the fact that the MJI Scores for most students were restricted to Kohlberg's conventional range of morality. However, SEA scores were significantly correlated with the Moral Orientation scores obtained from the MJI. In contrast to scores on the SEA, scores on the MJI were significantly related to age. The problem of confusing content and structure in moral development research was explored. The theoretical implications of a personality component being involved in choice of moral orientation were discussed as well.This research was partly supported by a grant from the National Institute of Mental Health (MH-16899).Major interests are in the area of moral development and family theories of psychopathology.Received his Ph.D. in clinical psychology from the University of Texas at Austin. Major interests are sociocognitive development of children and clinical child psychology.     

B. Reviews: general

EUROPE'S FUTURE IN THE ARAB VIEW. Edited by Dieter Beilenstein. (Paper of the Institute for International Relations, No.7), Saarbrücken, Breitenbach, 1981. pp.163.

A CHANGING IMAGE: AMERICAN PERCEPTIONS OF THE ARAB‐ISRAELI DISPUTE. By Richard H. Curtiss. Washing D.C., American Educational Trust, 1982.

THE BATTLE OF BEIRUT: WHY ISRAEL INVADED LEBANON. By Michael Jensen. London, Zed Press, 1982.

FIRE OF ISLAM. By Desmond Meiring. London, Wildwood House, 1982.

PUBLIC DUTIES IN ISLAM: THE INSTITUTION OF THE HISBA. By Ibn Taymiya, Al‐Shaykh Al‐Imam Taqi Al‐Din Ahmad (trans. Mukhtar Holland). (Islamic Economic Series 3), Leicester, The Islamic Foundation, 1982.

ISSUES IN ISLAMIC BANKING: SELECTED PAPERS. By M.N.Siddiqui. (Islamic Economic Series, 4), Leicester, The Islamic Foundation, 1983.

REGESTEN PUBLIZIERTER SAFAWIDISCHER HERRSCHERURKUNDEN: ERLASSE UND STAATSSCHREIBEN DER FRUHEN NEUZEIT IRANS. By Renate. Schimkoreit. (Islamkuhdliche Untersuchungen, Bd 68), Berlin, Klaus Shwarz Verlag, 1982. pp. 552. DM.87.

THE HISTORY OF THE BRITISH PETROLEUM COMPANY.‐ VOLUME I: THE DEVELOPING YEARS 1901–1932.. By R.W.Ferrier. Cambridge University Press, 1982. pp.801. £37.50.

THE CHALLENGE OF ENERGY: POLICIES IN THE MAKING. Edited by Mohammad W. Khouja. (Energy Resources and Policies of the Middle East and North Africa.) London‐New York, Longman, 1981. pp.127. Paperback.

THE CAMBRIDGE HISTORY OF IRAN. Volume 3: THE SELEUCID, PARTHIAN AND SASANIAN PERIODS. Edited by Ehsan Yarshater. Vol. 3(1), pp. lxxv, 624, 48 pl., 4 line drawings, 13 maps; vol.3(2), pp.xix, thereafter pagination continuous with that of 3(1), ending at p.1488, 99 pl. (4 in colour), 25 line drawings, 3 maps. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1983. £37.50.

TA ‘LIKI‐ZADE'S ?EHNAME‐YI HÜMAYUN: A HISTORY OF THE OTTOMAN CAMPAIGN INTO HUNGARY 1593–94. Edited with introduction and notes by Christine Woodhead. (Islamkundliche Untersuchungen, Band 82.) vii, pp.421, map. Berlin, Klaus Schwarz Verlag, 1983.

OTTOMAN YEAR BOOKS (SALNAME AND NEVSAL). Compiled by Hasan Duman. Istanbul, Research Centre for Islamic History, Art and Culture (IRCICA), 1402/1982. pp.144.

THE CRISIS OF TURKISH DEMOCRACY. By C.H.Dodd. Hull, Eothen Press, 1983. pp.136. £9.50 (cloth); £4.95 (paperback).

CULT, GHETTO AND STATE: THE PERSISTENCE OF THE JEWISH QUESTION. By Maxime Rodinson. London, Al Saqi Books, 1983. pp.239. £5.95.