Confidence in the Judiciary: Comparing the Independence and Legitimacy of Judicial Systems

This contribution investigates the determinants of judicial confidence. It argues that this is the decisive source of legitimacy for the third branch. Fairness and impartiality, i.e. the independence of the judiciary, are paramount in fostering citizens' confidence in the justice system. Through several multilevel analyses, the study tests whether judicial independence promotes the development of an individual's confidence in the justice system. The results show that judicial independence has a positive impact on the development of individual trust. However, public beliefs about the trustworthiness of judicial institutions do not seem to originate from constitutional rules (de jure independence) but from actual events and real life experiences (de facto independence).     

Questioning generational replacement. An age,period and cohort analysis of electoral volatility in the Netherlands, 1971–2010

Political behavior has been changing all over Western Europe and electoral volatility is one of the facets of politics in which this change is apparent. Theories on stabilization of political attitudes and behavior in lifetime and the slow rate at which change in the electoral arena is found to proceed, have led to the assumption of generational replacement as the mechanism driving change. The Netherlands, however, provide a remarkably different case of this trend in electoral volatility. The country has shifted from an example of how cleavages stabilize politics to one of the most electorally volatile countries in Europe. The Dutch surge in electoral volatility thus contrasts with expectations of a slow process driven by generational replacement. Starting from this apparent contradiction between the evolution of volatility in the Netherlands and theories on generational replacement, this article investigates time effects of electoral volatility. The study is based on an age, period and cohort analysis on the repeated cross-sectional data of the Dutch Parliamentary Election Studies, 1971–2010. Based on characteristics of such repeated cross-sectional data, individuals are cross-classified in birth cohorts and election years respectively, which overcomes the identification problem inherent in cohort analyses. Results of a Cross-Classified Random Effects Model (CCREM) indicate that, contrary to the hypothesis of new generations causing the increase in volatility, the Dutch change can be attributed primarily to period effects. As such, the analyses indicate that a general shift in the Dutch electorate has caused the growth in volatility and that supply-side factors should probably be analyzed when trying to explain electoral volatility.     

The dilemmas of pendulum politics: balancing paid work,care and citizenship

The relationship of paid work and care to citizenship is a central issue in feminist citizenship theory, echoing the longstanding dilemma between ‘equality’ or ‘difference’-based claims to full citizenship. The implications for feminist politics are discussed in the UK context where such politics can be characterized as a pendulum swinging away from an ‘equality’ towards a ‘difference’ model, in reaction to New Labour’s fetishism of paid work. The article explores the dilemmas this raises. It proposes an alternative model, which promotes both a more equitable gendered distribution of time and work (paid and unpaid) and also a more balanced way of life, which allows women and men time just to be. Social policies, it is argued, are crucial to the achievement of such a model.     

Petra Kelly: The Other Green

Petra Kelly enjoyed celebrity status as cofounder and "leader" of the German Greens from 1979 to 1990. A prominent theoretician of the Greens, she broke ranks with the party on the issue of joining the Social Democrats in a governing coalition. She proposed, instead, that the Greens remain a radical parliamentary opposition force. Defeated in the All German parliamentary election of 1990, the Greens rejected Kelly's position and ultimately, in 1998, became the governing partner of the SPD. Ostracized and devastated by the 1990 defeat, Kelly spoke of "moving beyond the Greens." In 1992 she died under tragic circumstances. Her name sank into obscurity. Within our globalized era, however, Petra Kelly's ideas have particular salience. She represents the other Green who laid the foundations for a global political theory and for global political action.     

How Second Order Are Local Elections? Voting Motives and Party Preferences in Belgian Municipal Elections

A defining characteristic of second-order elections is that voters base their decision on considerations that were developed for a different policy level. Therefore, this kind of elections does not contribute to the quality of democratic representation. Municipal elections are often considered as second-order elections. In this article, we use data from an exit poll (n = 4,591) held during the 2012 municipal elections in Belgium. Results suggest that although voters predominantly invoke local aspects as determining their vote choice, still three-quarters votes for the same party locally as for federal elections. Among voters who deviate from their federal party preference, knowing local candidates and concern about local policy issues are the main sources of deviation. The conclusion therefore is that local candidates do make a difference and contribute strongly to the salience of electoral decisions on the local level.     

Parental Criminality, Family Violence and Intergenerational Transmission of Crime Within a Birth Cohort

Previous studies documented that crime is heavily concentrated in families. However, many studies relied on relatively small samples, often males and information on criminal involvement was self-reported. The present study investigates: (1) the prevalence of arrests in three generations; (2) the concentration of offenders and arrests within families; (3) the relationships between arrests among the relatives; (4) the relationship between arrests and family violence. A complete cohort of the families in which a child was born in a Dutch city was selected, and the arrests of all known family members (siblings, parents and grandparents) were investigated. Results showed that 7.2 % of the mothers and 18 % of the fathers had been arrested. The likelihood of parental arrests was related to the likelihood of grandparental arrests. There was clear evidence for assortative mating: when the mother was arrested, the likelihood that the father was arrested was increased with a factor five. Maternal arrests were also related to arrests of her parents-in-law. Arrests are heavily concentrated within families, 7.8 % of the families account for 52.3 % of the suspects. Arrests in family members constitute a major risk factor for poor developmental outcomes, such as criminal behavior. At the time of birth, it is possible to use information on arrests to select children who are at relatively high risk for the target of prevention efforts.Implications for prevention policies are discussed.     

Inter-rater reliability of dynamic risk assessment with sexual offenders

Abstract

This paper describes the inter-rater reliability of the Structured Assessment of Risk and Need (SARN, formerly known as Structured Risk Assessment). The SARN is a structured framework for identifying sexual offenders’ dynamic risk factors. The SARN comprises 16 dynamic risk factors, categorized into four domains: Sexual Interests, Distorted Attitudes, Socio-Affective Functioning and Self-Management. Two studies, utilizing three samples, are reported. Study 1 examined the inter-rater reliability of four SARN cases with a sample of seven expert raters. Results indicated high inter-rater reliability amongst these participants. Study 2 examined the reliability of SARN with two samples who had received training before supplying inter-rater data (N=88). Results provided some support for the reliability of SARN. However, strength of reliability was dependent upon the method of analysis applied (percentage agreement, Cohen's Kappa, intra-class correlation coefficients). These results are discussed in terms of their clinical and methodological implications.     

Components underlying sex offender treatment refusal: an exploratory analysis of the Treatment Refusal Scale—Sex Offender version

Abstract

Approximately half of sexual offenders in prison and community settings refuse to participate in sex offender treatment programmes; however, the reasons for this remain largely unexplored. This pilot study used the previously untested Treatment Refusal Scale—Sexual Offender Version in an English prison, with 72 adult males (63 treatment accepters and nine treatment refusers) imprisoned for sexual or sexually motivated offences. Principal factors analysis revealed three factors within the scale: “pressured to take part in programmes”; “fear of negative effects”; and “programme is not relevant to/appropriate for me”. Treatment refusers scored more highly than treatment accepters on the first and last components, while there was no statistically significant difference in the scores of the two groups on the “fear of negative effects” component. Suggestions for further development of the scale are discussed, along with the practice implications of these findings.     

Reconviction following a cognitive skills intervention: An alternative quasi‐experimental methodology

Purpose. Enhanced Thinking Skills (ETS) has been the most widely delivered cognitive skills programme in the prisons of England and Wales. Four quasi‐experimental outcome studies have produced mixed results, a qualitative survey of offenders’ and facilitators’ experience on the programme proved useful in programme refinement, and a study using random allocation provided evidence that ETS impacts significantly and positively on short‐term attitudinal change. This study aims to make a further contribution, using another methodology, to the accumulation of evidence. Methods. This was a real‐world evaluation, comparing the reconviction outcomes of the population of 17,047 ETS participants in custody from 2000 to 2005 with a national cohort of 19,792 prisoners released over the same period. Results. Overall, prisoners who had attended ETS were found to reoffend at a rate 6.4 percentage points less than the cohort (rising to 7.5 percentage points for programme completers) and 9.5 percentage points less than the predicted rate. In all but the very highest risk group and in every sentence length band, the reoffending outcomes for ETS participants were significantly better than for prisoners in the cohort. Conclusions. It is argued that this non‐experimental methodology makes a contribution to the ‘What Works’ evidence.     

Evaluating the work of Australia's Family Relationship Centres: Evidence from the first 5 years

Family Relationship Centres (FRCs) have been described as a centerpiece of Australia's 2006 family law reforms. This paper places these centres in the larger context of the reforms and their commitment to providing community‐based family services in the family law area. The paper also examines the empirical evidence regarding FRCs' use and effectiveness. It notes that while the objectives and intentions of FRCs place considerable emphasis on strengthening family relationships and assisting families to stay together, the centres themselves have only a modest level of direct involvement with intact families. FRCs tend to have strong links with other community‐based family services, many of whom are more engaged with intact families; but it is difficult to gauge their effectiveness in this area. Most FRCs' direct services are aimed at separating families and most of that work involves family dispute resolution (family mediation) and associated services such as screening and assessment and the provision of relevant information. A substantial majority of clients who attend FDR at an FRC reach agreement about their parenting arrangements either at FDR or subsequent to attending FDR. These agreements also tend to hold up in the medium term. A majority of parents believe that at FDR, the child(ren)'s needs were taken into account; the parenting agreement worked for the child(ren); and the parenting agreement worked for them. A substantial proportion of FRC clients come from families that have experienced family violence or other dysfunctional behaviours, and such behaviours reduce the chances of resolving parenting disputes. The paper concludes by suggesting that having been created mainly as a default alternative to legal interventions and court processes, it is likely that a major future strength of FRCs will lie in their emerging capacity to work constructively not only with other relationship services and networks, but with family lawyers and the courts.