Partisan Turnout Bias in Midterm Legislative Elections

Abstract: Lower salience elections present greater opportunities for representational bias at the polls than do elections with higher levels of political interest. We hypothesize that turnout bias is most likely to occur during midterm congressional elections in which there are clear short‐term forces that exploit the low turnout setting. The effects of these forces are more likely to be observable among registered nonvoters than citizens who are not registered to vote because registrants have access to the polls and are likely to have voted in previous presidential contests. Using midterm National Election Study data from 1978 to 1998, we find that registered nonvoters are frequently more Democratic than midterm election voters, particularly in 1994 and 1998. The historic 1994 congressional election seat losses for Democrats may be partially explained by the finding that voters going to the polls were clearly more conservative than registered nonvoters.     

The Fall: Consequences of US Withdrawal From Iraq

There is no big anti‐war movement in the United States against Iraq like there was against Vietnam. But the people have finally spoken against President Bush's Iraq policy by resoundingly returning a Democratic majority to Congress. Henry Kissinger, eminence gris of American diplomacy, ponders whether this means a “return to realism.” The military historian Martin van Creveld looks at what American withdrawal would mean.     

The preadult origins of postmaterialism: A longitudinal sibling study

Using a research design that traces siblings' preferences for postmaterialist values in Germany over two decades, this article provides new evidence on the origins of value preferences. Focusing on Inglehart's thesis of value change, the combined socialisation and scarcity hypothesis is tested against the social learning hypothesis – a prominent rival account of preadult value preference formation. Sibling estimates show that the shared preadult environment does indeed exert lasting effects on preferences for postmaterialist policies. In addition to the weak effect of the shared experience of socioeconomic scarcity, it is found that the intergenerational transmission of postmaterialism, disregarded by Inglehart's original thesis, plays a significant role in value preference acquisition. The implications of individual-level findings for forecasts of aggregate-level trends in value change are discussed.     

European Union transgovernmental networks: The emergence of a new political space beyond the nation‐state?

Abstract. Does the European Union (EU) represent a new political order replacing the old nation‐states? The assessment of the real character of political orders requires the identification of political key actors and of the specific structure of their interactions. Transgovernmental networks have been considered to be one of the most important features of EU integration. Unfortunately, the network structures, processes and the impact of these informal horizontal inter‐organisational relations between nation‐states are mostly unknown. The main objective of this article is to measure and explain the selective pattern of informal bilateral relations of high officials of the EU Member States’ ministerial bureaucracies on the occasion of an EU Intergovernmental Conference. The quantitative data used rely on standardised interviews with 140 top‐level bureaucrats. The statistical estimation of network choices is based on recent developments of exponential random graph models.     

FROM POLICY COMMUNITY TO ISSUE NETWORK: SALMONELLA IN EGGS AND THE NEW POLITICS OF FOOD

In the last two years the issue of food has been subject to increasing political controversy with firstly salmonella in eggs and later listeria and BSE becoming the focus of conflict and widespread media attention. This is an important change. In most of the post-war period food policy was conducted within a relatively closed policy community where issues concerning food policy were largely treated as routine technical decisions. The significance of the salmonella in eggs affair is that it is indicative of wider changes in the making of food policy. The increased activity of interest groups, the impact of the Common Agricultural Policy and changes in the retail economy have combined to transform the food policy community into an issue network.     

The Law Union of Ontario

The Law Union of Ontario is an attempt by a small group of lawyers in an advanced capitalist society to engage in organized progressive political and legal work. This has not been easy nor has it been entirely successful.