Using Term Limits to Estimate Incumbency Advantages When Officeholders Retire Strategically

Empirical study of U.S. elections over the last 50 years has documented a strong electoral advantage to incumbency in state and federal elections. Recently, however, critics have argued that traditional estimates of the incumbency advantage may overstate the advantage by as much as 100% because the estimates fail to consider strategic retirements. This article directly examines whether or not strategic retirement biases conventional regression estimates of incumbency advantages. We use term limits in state executive and legislative elections as instrumental variables to correct for strategic retirement. We find that, as an empirical matter, strategic retirement is not substantively important. Estimates of incumbency advantages that take account of strategic retirement actually are marginally larger than estimates that do not.     

SOCIAL SCIENCE AND DEATH PENALTY CASES: Reflections on Change and the Empirical Justification of Constitutional Policy

This article investigates the use of social science and empirical data in the justification for declaring the death penalty unconstitutional. It does so by analysing the use of such materials in the briefs presented to the Supreme Court and the Court's response in major death penalty cases. The article finds that social science played a prominent role in the arguments of both the challengers and defenders of capital punishment. Applying concepts from decision-making theory, after analyzing the Court's decisions, the article concludes that social science will not provide a justification for the constitutional change requested.     

PAYING FOR LOCAL GOVERNMENT: CHARGING FOR SERVICES

The latest Green Paper on reform of local government finance was published in January 1986. It represents an attempt to achieve local accountability which the present system is regarded as having failed to achieve. Increased use of fees and charges is seen as 'an even more direct way of ensuring that local people can see what they are getting for what they are paying' and, at the same time, 'has benefits in terms of efficiency as well as accountability'. This article critically appraises just what is meant by 'realistic charging policies', 'efficient use of resources' and 'effective pricing policies'. Realistic pricing policies are then outlined based on radical improvements in the nature and quality of information available to local authorities. The danger of a blinkered approach to increased use of charging is stressed and factors to be considered when reviewing charging are discussed.     

Forecasting General Fund Revenue: An Analysis of Idaho FY 1998 to FY 2011

Forecasting state general fund revenue (GFR) though business cycles means possibly confusing a cycle with an underlying long‐run trend. Relative to the actual revenue, the mean squared error of the academic, legislative, governor's, the growth path (GP), and Holt‐Winters (HW) forecasts for Idaho GFR was not significantly different than the naïve forecast's; the Combined GP‐HW forecast has significantly smaller mean square error. The GP model (ARIMA 1, 2, 1) produced a short‐run elasticity of revenue with respect to income of 1.05 (±0.05). The best GFR forecasts combined a HW two‐step‐ahead level with a GP one‐step‐ahead trend that provided a forecast of GFR with the smallest root mean square error between FY 1998 and FY 2009. A budget stabilization fund needs to be 34–40 percent of GFR for GFR to sustain growth at the state's long‐run expansion rate during a contraction.     

DEMOCRATIC SUBJECTIVITIES IN NETWORK GOVERNANCE: A Q METHODOLOGY STUDY OF ENGLISH AND DUTCH PUBLIC MANAGERS

Network forms of governance enable public managers to exercise considerable agency in shaping the institutions through which government interacts with citizens, civil society organizations and business. These network institutions configure democratic legitimacy and accountability in various ways, but little is known about how managers‐as‐designers think about democracy. This Q methodology study identifies five democratic subjectivities. Pragmatists have little concern for democracy. Realists regard networks as one of a number of arenas in which the politics is played out. Adaptors identify the potential for greater inclusiveness. Progressive Optimists think that network governance will fill the gap between the theory and practice of representative democracy, while Radical Optimists focus on its potential for enabling direct dialogue. Institutional design alone is not sufficient to enhance the democratic possibilities of governance networks. The choice of public manager is also salient. Adaptors or, preferably, Progressive or Radical Optimists should be selected for this role.     

Legal Ambiguity and the Politics of Compliance: Affirmative Action Officers' Dilemma

Equal employment opportunity and affirmative action mandates, like many other laws regulating organizations, do not clearly define what constitutes compliance. Thus compliance depends largely on the initiative and agenda of those persons within organizations who are charged with managing the compliance effort: in the case of civil rights, "affirmative action officers." This paper draws on case studies of affirmative action officers to suggest that the political climate within which affirmative action officers work, together with the officers' interpretations of the law, their role conceptions, and their professional aspirations have important implications for the nature and extent of organizational compliance with law. We conclude that compliance should be understood as a process that evolves over time rather than as a discrete event or non-event.