THE INFLUENCE OF GENDER, LOW BIRTH WEIGHT, AND DISADVANTAGED ENVIRONMENT IN PREDICTING EARLY ONSET OF OFFENDING: A TEST OF MOFFITT'S INTERACTIONAL HYPOTHESIS

Little is known about the causes of an early onset of offending. In an attempt to shed light on this issue, some theoretical models have been advanced purporting to explain the reasons for an individual's early initiation into offending. In one of these models, Moffitt (1993) predicts that early onset of offending is caused by an interaction between (1) increased risk for neuropsychological disorders and (2) disadvantaged childhood environments. This study tests Moffitt's hypothesis concerning the development of early offending. In the present analysis, low birth weight was used as a proxy for increased likelihood of neuropsychological deficits, and socioeconomic status and family structure served as indicators for disadvantaged environment. Using the Philadelphia portion of the Collaborative Perinatal Project, we find support for Moffitt's hypothesis that neuropsychological risk and disadvantaged environment interact to produce an early, but not late, onset of offending. In subsequent analysis, the interaction was observed for males but not females. The latter result, however, may be a function of the small number of cases in the female sample. Finally, we address the theoretical and policy implications arising from our analyses and provide some suggestions for future research.     

Using Term Limits to Estimate Incumbency Advantages When Officeholders Retire Strategically

Empirical study of U.S. elections over the last 50 years has documented a strong electoral advantage to incumbency in state and federal elections. Recently, however, critics have argued that traditional estimates of the incumbency advantage may overstate the advantage by as much as 100% because the estimates fail to consider strategic retirements. This article directly examines whether or not strategic retirement biases conventional regression estimates of incumbency advantages. We use term limits in state executive and legislative elections as instrumental variables to correct for strategic retirement. We find that, as an empirical matter, strategic retirement is not substantively important. Estimates of incumbency advantages that take account of strategic retirement actually are marginally larger than estimates that do not.     

COMPULSORY COMPETITIVE TENDERING FOR LOCAL GOVERNMENT SERVICES: THE EXPERIENCES OF LOCAL AUTHORITIES IN THE NORTH OF ENGLAND 1988-1992

This article examines the response of a sample of local authorities in the North of England to the introduction of Compulsory Competitive Tendering (Cm) following the 1988 Local Government Act. It analyses the Organizational implications of CCT and highlights how officers, councillors and trade union representatives viewed the changing nature of management within local authorities in the period following the award of the first service contracts. In particular, it examines the different reactions to the development of a more commercial approach to the management of services and ends by assessing the specific impact of CCT in the context of other important changes in local government.     

SOCIAL SCIENCE AND DEATH PENALTY CASES: Reflections on Change and the Empirical Justification of Constitutional Policy

This article investigates the use of social science and empirical data in the justification for declaring the death penalty unconstitutional. It does so by analysing the use of such materials in the briefs presented to the Supreme Court and the Court's response in major death penalty cases. The article finds that social science played a prominent role in the arguments of both the challengers and defenders of capital punishment. Applying concepts from decision-making theory, after analyzing the Court's decisions, the article concludes that social science will not provide a justification for the constitutional change requested.