Do opportunistic snap elections affect political trust? Evidence from a natural experiment

Snap elections, those triggered by incumbents in advance of their original date in the electoral calendar, are a common feature of parliamentary democracies. In this paper, I ask: do snap elections influence citizens’ trust in the government? Theoretically, I argue that providing citizens with an additional means of endorsing or rejecting the incumbent – giving voters a chance to ‘have their say’ – can be interpreted by citizens as normatively desirable and demonstrative of the incumbent's desire to legitimise their agenda by (re)-invigorating their political mandate. Leveraging the quasi-experimental setting provided by the coincidental timing of the UK Prime Minister, Theresa May's, shock announcement of early elections in April 2017 with the fieldwork for the Eurobarometer survey, I demonstrate that the announcement of snap elections had a sizeable and significant positive effect on political trust. This trust-inducing effect is at odds with the observed electoral consequences of the 2017 snap elections. Whilst incumbent-triggered elections can facilitate net gains for the sitting government, May's 2017 gamble cost the Conservative Party their majority. Snap elections did increase political trust. These trust-inducing effects were not observed symmetrically for all citizens. Whilst Eurosceptics and voters on the right of the ideological spectrum – those most inclined to support the incumbent May-led Conservative government in 2017 – became more trusting, no such changes in trust were observed amongst left-wing or non-Eurosceptic respondents. This study advances the understanding of a relatively understudied yet not uncommon political phenomenon, providing causal evidence that snap elections have implications for political trust.     

Reinventing Reforms: How to Improve Program Management Using Performance Measures. Really

This paper looks at the design and use of incentivized performance measures to motivate managerial efficiency and promote greater program effectiveness. It starts off by looking at recent reforms like the Government Performance and Results Act to understand why they were largely unsuccessful in altering the decision‐making process of government agencies. One problem was that performance measures have been both numerous and complicated, thereby making their role in management and oversight difficult. Equally important, no external incentives were attached to program accomplishments. The paper then examines what elements would be needed to build a management system that encourages both more efficient and more effective agency behavior. The goal of performance budgeting is to develop performance measures that display the progress of a program toward its stated objectives. Assessments based on these measures may then call for rewards or punishments. As such, it also may encourage program managers toward improved performance. The paper examines the pitfalls and complexities dealt with by Congress and Office of Management and Budget in the process. For example, a performance system must distinguish between funding program needs, as warranted by sectoral indicators, and management concerns. It must also unambiguously tie incentives to performance measures to motivate agencies, while building in commitment devices for the principals. Incentivized performance measures may not be appropriate in all conditions, but may be helpful for motivating managers and improving program performance in particular circumstances.     

The Moral Truth about Discourse Theory

Abstract. The fundamental impulse of Discourse Theory is to eschew the moral substantivism of ethical rationalism in favour of a pragmatic, procedural approach to ethical and legal analysis. However, this paper argues that even if the analysis of Communicative Action as reconstructed by Habermas’s “Universal Pragmatics,” and the implied procedural rules of practical discourse advanced by Robert Alexy are accepted, the validation or “redemption” of all authoritative and distributive claims must, in terms of logical priority, encounter the substantively general necessity of Gewirth’s Principle of Generic Consistency. This result operates as a reductio ad absurdum of the project of Universal Pragmatics and prompts us to reconsider the epistemological status and the political and ethico‐legal function of Discourse Ethics in Civil Society.     

Normative Forecacasting: An Application of Stochastic Models to Crime Rates

Normative forecasting is a procedure designed to measure future intensity within a given region compared to the future level within a larger region—the population as a whole. A procedure for normative forecasting is developed which incorporates empirical stochastic models and their forecasts along with a scaling procedure. A substantive example which uses reported monthly crime occurrence data compares the future intensity of crime within one city to a population base composed of several similar major U. S. cities.     

DETERRENCE EFFECTIVENESS MEASUREMENT

Abstract The controversy of statistical evaluation of effectiveness of the present criminal justice system and of specific programs or changes implemented in the existing system has in part centered around the value of crime-incidence data. The relationships between victimization and UCR or police-blotter data pertinent to their use in evaluation are first described. An example is presented using an empirical-stochastic model developed solely from UCR data to illustrate an approach to evaluation of system effectiveness. Here an ad hoc procedure is displayed which quantifies variation in and/or shifts in crime patterns after an intervention in the system.     

What's New and Useful in Law Analysis Technology?*

Abstract
Decision-aiding software is probably the most important technological innovation from the perspective of lawyer decision-making, as contrasted to efficient office management. That kind of technological breakthrough can be helpful to lawyers in negotiating settlements favorable to their clients without expensive litigation. The technology makes use of benefit-cost analysis, multi-criteria decision analysis, spreadsheet software, and especially super-optimizing analysis whereby plaintiffs, defendants, and other parties can all come out ahead of their best initial expectations simultaneously. Decision-aiding software can also be helpful to lawyers in evaluating alternative precedents, statutes, regulations, and other legal policies to arrive at versions favorable to their clients without an expensive adoption campaign.     

Method, Morality and the Impossibility of Legal Positivism

Abstract. The dispute between Legal Positivists (eg, Hart) and Natural Lawyers (e.g., Finnis) concerns the existence or otherwise of a necessary (conceptual) connection between law and morality. Legal Positivists such as Hart deny this connection and assert the merely contingent relationship of law and morals. However, it can be demonstrated that implicit in the valid sociological method of concept formation of post-Austinian Positivists are interpretative or ideal-typical models of the practical rationality of the legal enterprise which are not, and cannot possibly be, value-neutral. With particular attention to the work of John Finnis and his incorporation of Weberian and Aristotelian methodological principles, this paper exposes, if not the truth of Natural Law Theory, the impossibility of Legal Positivism.