A Dynamic Model of Political Change Among Party Activists

In this article, we develop a dynamic model of aggregate attitudinal change among party activists in order to better understand the process by which new issues/cleavages divide major political parties. We build on existing research by developing a model of change that incorporates both conversion among continuing activists and the replacement of previous activists with newcomers who hold different views. We first explore such change among activists of the two major parties in the United States on the abortion issue. We then consider a number of alternative specifications of the model in order to generalize our findings. We conclude that conversion among continuing activists contributes in a substantial way to aggregate change among party activists by influencing the level of change, accelerating the change process, and sustaining change over time.     

C. Reviews and notes: bibliographies and works of reference

THE CONCISE ENCYCLOPÆDIA OF ISLAM. By CYRIL GLASSÉ. London, Stacey International, 1989. 472pp. Ills., maps, plans. £30.00

THE NEAR EAST NATIONAL UNION LIST. Volume 1. Compiled by DOROTHY STEHLE, under the direction of GEORGE N. ATIYEH. Washington, Library of Congress, 1988. ix, 867pp. USS 47.00.

MUDEJARES: REPERTORIO BIBLIOGRAFICO. Compiled by PAZ FERNANDEZ. (Cuadernos de la Biblioteca Islámica ‘Félix María Pareja’, 18.) Madrid, Instituto Hispano‐Árabe de Cultura, 1988. iii, 42pp.

INFORMATIONS BIBLIOGRAPHIQUES. I'LAMAT BIBLIYUGHRAFIYYA. 3 et 4–1986; 1 et 2–1987. Tunis, Bibliothèque Nationale, Service des Dépots et des Publications/Dar al‐Kutub al‐Wataniyya, Maslahat al‐Ida’ wa‐1‐Nashr, 1987. 45 + 23; 49 + 46pp.

L'ÉCONOMIE DES PAYS ARABES: PRÉSENTATION THÉMATIQUE DES TRAVAUX DE LA PÉRIODE 1979–1984. By CHANTAL BERNARD. (Cahiers du C.R.E.S.M., 20.) Paris, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, 1988. 156pp. FF 90.‐.

SYRIA. Compiled by IAN J. SECCOMBE. (World Bibliographical Series, 73.) Oxford, Clio Press, 1987. xxxii + 341pp. £45.00.

MALTA. Compiled by J.R. THACKRAH. (World Bibliographical Series, 64.) Oxford, Clio Press, 1985. xviii, 153pp. Map. £23.50.

BIBLJOGRAFIJA NAZZJONALI TA’ MALTA. MALTA NATIONAL BIBLIOGRAPHY, 1983–1987. Valletta, National Library of Malta, 1984–1988. 5 volumes. 41; 60; 59; 64; 76pp. Each LM 1.50 or US $9.00 (incl. air mail postage).

MELITENSIA: BOOKS IN PRINT 1985. Valletta, Sapienzas, 1985. 55pp.

ARABIC LANGUAGE TEACHING IN THE UNITED KINGDOM: 1988 DIRECTORY. Compiled by DIONISIUS A. AGIUS. [Leeds,] Folia Scholastica, 1988. 36pp. £2.50.

QUR'ANS OF THE MAMLUKS. By DAVID JAMES. London, Alexandria Press in association with Thames and Hudson, 1988. 270pp. 170 illustrations (80 in colour). 1 map. £35.00.

CALLIGRAPHIE ISLAMIQUE, TEXTES SACRES ET PROFANES. ISLAMIC CALLIGRAPHY, SACRED AND SECULAR WRITINGS. By DAVID JAMES & others. Geneva, Musée d'Art et d'Histoire and Treasures of Islam, 1988. 200pp. Colour illus.

KAYF NU'ALLIM AL‐KHATT AL‐'ARABI. By MA'RUF ZURAYQ. Damascus, Dar al‐Fikr, 1407/1987 (2nd edition, reprinted from the 1985 edition). 150pp. 51 illustrations. US$ 2.50.

IMAGES OF WOMEN: THE PORTRAYAL OF WOMEN IN PHOTOGRAPHY OF THE MIDDLE EAST 1860–1950. By SARAH GRAHAM‐BROWN. London, Quartet, 1988. 288pp., 216 b/w ills. £22.50.     

Ministerial Consultants and Privatisation: Australian Federal Government 1985–88

The “turn to the market” by the Hawke Government (1983–91) began with the floating of the dollar and the de‐regulation of the banks, and later involved the privatisation of government assets. Though presented as a coherent re‐thinking of Labor ideology, an examination of the events leading to privatisation reveals an episodic process that was not inevitable. The genesis of the economic statement of May 1987, which first delineated “asset sales” and signalled later privatisations, shows that individuals could act as “policy entrepreneurs” and bring unexpected solutions to re‐defined problems. Important was David Block, one of a unique cadre of policy advisers – the “ministerial consultants” established in 1984 by the Labor government as part of its plan to control the public service, and all but abolished by John Howard in 1996. Though Block was not a typical consultant, his case shows how market‐oriented ideas entered government through new channels at that time, and how a political “reform” had consequences in the economy that were unintended by the early reformers. Ministerial consultants have received little attention hitherto but their case illuminates some of the dramatic policy shifts of the government and shows that a discourse (in this case about “administrative reform”) was reformulated to overturn old values about the role of government in the economy.     

Reflections Journal in New Collaboration

From the Editor

Reflections Journal in New Collaboration     

Has welfare reform changed teenage behaviors?

Data from the National Longitudinal Surveys of Youth 1979 and 1997 cohorts were used to compare welfare use, fertility, educational attainment, and marriage among teenage women in the years before and immediately following welfare reform. The first objective was to document differences between these cohorts in welfare use and outcomes and behavior correlated with entry into welfare and with future economic and social well‐being. The second objective was to investigate the causal role of welfare reform in behavioral change. Significant differences were found between cohorts in welfare use and in outcomes related to welfare use. Furthermore, difference‐in‐differences estimates suggest that welfare reform has been associated with reduced welfare receipt, reduced fertility, and reduced marriage among young women who, because of a disadvantaged family background, are at high risk of welfare receipt. Finally, in the post‐welfare reform era, teenage mothers are less likely to receive welfare and are more likely to live with at least one parent than in the pre‐reform era. Establishing more definitively that welfare reform is responsible for these changes will require further investigation. © 2003 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.     

Intermunicipal Cooperation in the Netherlands: The Costs and the Effectiveness of Polycentric Regional Governance

This article examines the effects of the structure of intermunicipal cooperatives (IMCs) on the perceived transaction costs and benefits of IMCs. Hypotheses based on a polycentric theory of regional governance are tested using data from Dutch municipalities. The findings are mixed. In line with polycentric theory, networks characterized by a multiplicity of territorial scales reduce IMC transaction costs. Contrary to polycentric theory, however, if IMCs are organized under a uniform legal regime, lower costs and higher benefits are reported. Structural factors that dominate the debate between polycentrism and monocentrism prove to be of limited importance. On the other hand, the results indicate support for the hypotheses that intermunicipal trust (as a cultural variable) contributes to perceptions of effective and efficient cooperation.