Uncertainty and Turnout

This article develops a model that simultaneously considersindividual turnout and vote choice while also accounting foruncertainty about candidates. The theoretical development ofthis model implies that the effects of uncertainty on turnoutvary with the strength of individual preferences. Applicationof the model to individual choice in the 1996 American presidentialelection confirms that decreasing uncertainty about the charactertraits of the candidates decreases the probability of abstentionfor individuals with strong preferences but increases the probabilityof abstention for individuals with weak preferences.     

A. Reviews and notes of recent bibliographies

i. Middle East and Islam: A Bibliographical Introduction (Bibliotheca Asiatica 15). Edited by Diana Grimwood‐Jones, for the Middle East Libraries Committee [MELCOM]. Revised and enlarged edition. Zug, Inter Documentation Company, 1979. pp. ix, 429.

ii. Middle East Studies and Libraries. A Felicitation Volume for Professor J.D. Pearson. Edited by B.C. Bloomfield. London, Mansell, 1980. pp. xi, 231.

iii. Cultures of the Islamic Near East: A Guide to Introductory Readings for the Non‐Specialist. By John W. Bagnole. Washington, D.C., America‐Mideast Educational & Training Services, Inc. (Occasional Paper, No. 4), 1978. pp. ii, 79. $4.00

iv. The Modern Arab Woman: A Bibliography. By Michelle Raccagni. Metuchen, N.J. & London, The Scarecrow Press, 1978, pp. x, 282.     

More Than 'Counting Manhole Covers': The Evolution Of The British Tradition Of Public Administration

This article is a revised version of an inaugural lecture, delivered at the University of Leeds on 30 April 1998. The focus of the lecture and, thus, of this article is concerned with administrative history and the civil service. The first part of the article is about the pioneers of the academic study of public administration, and the subject's relationship with political philosophy. The second part examines the role of the Webbs and the British approach to public administration. The third part evaluates the contribution of the academics of the 'Golden Age' of public administration. The fourth part deals with changing perceptions of public administration, with a particular emphasis on developments in the civil service; it is deliberately self-referential. The final part briefly considers the future of the academic study of public administration, concluding that it has one.