Quantitative Leverage Through Qualitative Knowledge: Augmenting the Statistical Analysis of Complex Causes

Social scientific theories frequently posit that multiple causalmechanisms may produce the same outcome. Unfortunately, it isnot always possible to observe which mechanism was responsible.For example, IMF scholars conjecture that nations enter IMFagreements both out of economic need and for discretionary domesticpolitical reasons. Typically, though, all we observe is thefact of agreement, not its cause. Partial observability probitmodels (Poirier 1980, Journal of Econometrics 12:209–217; Braumoeller2003, Political Analysis 11:209–233) provide one methodfor the statistical analysis of such phenomena. Unfortunately,they are often plagued by identification and labeling difficulties.Sometimes, however, qualitative studies of particular casesenlighten us about causes when quantitative studies cannot.We propose exploiting this information to lend additional structureto the partial observability approach. Monte Carlo simulationreveals that by anchoring "discernible" causes for a handfulof cases about which we possess qualitative information, weobtain greater efficiency. More important, our method provesreliable at recovering unbiased parameter estimates when thepartial observability model fails. The paper concludes withan analysis of the determinants of IMF agreements.

A member shall be entitled to purchase the currencies of othermembers from the Fund ...[provided] the member represents thatit has a need to make the purchase because of its balance ofpayments or its reserve position or developments in its reserves. —InternationalMonetary Fund Articles of Agreement [IMF] negotiations sometimesenable government leaders to do what they privately wish todo, but are powerless to do domestically. —Robert Putnam(1988, p. 457)

     

The State of American Federalism, 1995-1996

Federalism was a major political issue in 1995 and 1996 withpresidential candidates, congressional leaders, governors, andthe courts weighing in with proposals to shift responsibilityfrom Washington to states and localities. There was more talkthan action, but as the second session of the 104th Congresswound down in the late summer, a major proposal to block grantthe 61-year old Aid to Families with Dependent Children programwas enacted. This enactment allowed both Democrats and Republicansto take political credit, and gave major responsibilities tothe states to implement the new approach to a former entitlementprogram. Five themes characterized the year: (1) federalismwas once again a salient issue; (2) deficit reduction and devolutionwere bound together; (3) the U.S. Supreme Court continued toreexamine and possibly redefine the legal parameters of federalism;(4) state officials became more visible political actors inWashington, D. C.; and (5) states provided key policy and managementleadership.     

Conflict resolution: benchmarking water utility performance

The water sector has economic and symbolic importance for citizens in developing countries. Water utility benchmarking is no panacea for improving water sector performance. Nevertheless, it can contribute to addressing four sources of conflict in the design and implementation of policies: cognitive conflicts (based on technical disagreements regarding how data might be analysed and interpreted), interest conflicts (where suppliers and demanders obtain different benefits and costs under alternative policies), values conflicts (involving ideology or personal preferences regarding water sector outcomes) and authority conflicts (stemming from jurisdictional disagreements over who has the last word). These potential sources of conflict characterise most politically‐charged situations, including water supply management. This article examines the extent to which water utility benchmarking facilitates conflict resolution. Without information on historical trends, current baselines and realistic targets, conflicts over reforms to improve sector performance can weaken systems that are already fragile, particularly those in developing countries. This article attempts to improve our understanding of the links between sources of conflict, government approaches for dealing with conflict and the role of water utility benchmarking as a complementary strategy for addressing policy issues. Benchmarking is one way regulators and managers can promote conflict resolution that allows participants to focus on performance. The principles apply to all sectors with significant state oversight. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Public choice: “Yes Minister” made it popular,but does winning the Nobel Prize make it true?

Abstract: This paper discusses the influence and validity of public choice economics, which uses the traditional methodology of self-interested utility-maximizing rational choice to explain the behaviour of voters, politicians and bureaucrats. Public choice authors view the democratic political system pessimistically, fearing that politicians, interest groups and bureaucrats will collude to expand government activity, which will benefit these three groups but harm the public at large. Thus, public choice writers are supporters of the conservative agenda of balanced budgets and reduced government spending. The article shows how the successful British television series “Yes Minister” draws much of its inspiration from the public choice model and how this is reflected in the behaviour of the key characters in the series. It is argued that the series has been effective at popularizing the model. Finally, the article critically reviews the recent Canadian public choice literature, and finds that it uses the marginal voter hypothesis tautologically, that many tests of the validity of the public choice model have been methodologically sloppy, and that public choice writers could have profited from an interview methodology in attempting to explain public policy outcomes. Sommaire: Cet article analyse l'influence de l‘école du “choix public” en économie laquelle utilise la méthode classique du choix rationnel fondé sur les intérêts personnels et la maximisation de l'utilité pour expliquer le comportement des électeurs, des politiciens et des bureaucrates. Les auteurs, tenants de cette école, sont pessimistes à l’égard du régime politique démocratique car ils craignent que les politiciens, les groupes d'intérêt et les bureaucrates se concertent pour accroître les activités gouvernementales à leur avantage mais au détriment du grand public. Ces auteurs favorisent donc un programme politique conservateur prônant l‘équilibre budgétaire et la réduction des dépenses gouvernementales. L'article montre comment le feuilleton télévisé britannique “Yes Minister”, qui connaît un vif succès dans le monde entier, s'inspire du modèle “du choix public” et comment le jeu des principaux personnages en est influencé. On affirme même que le feuilleton a contribuéà populariser ce modèle. L'auteur critique enfin les derniers ouvrages canadiens sur le choix public et estime qu'on utilise l'hypothèse de l’électeur marginal de manière tautologique et, par ailleurs, que de nombreux tests sur la validité du modèle du choix public laissent à désirer au niveau de la méthodologie. Les auteurs du choix public auraient eu intérêt à recourir à la méthode des entrevues pour expliquer les décisions gouvernementales.     

The effects of pubertal timing on body image,school behavior,and deviance

Variation in the timing of pubertal maturation may result in behavioral differences among early, mid-, and late maturers. Using data from the National Health Examination Survey, a national probability sample of children and youth aged 12–17, we investigated the relationships between maturational timing and body image, school behavior, and deviance. In terms of body image, the early maturing boys were the group most satisfied with height and weight. The early maturing girls were most dissatisfied with weight, with 69% wishing to be thinner. This great dissatisfaction with weight reported by early maturing girls is probably not an affect of early maturation, but a concomitant of maturation in general. The majority of girls became dissatisfied with their weight as they matured, and females from the higher social groups were more likely to want to be thinner than females from lower groups. Thus, a normal developmental process is being viewed negatively by females and positively by males. Male early maturers more often had deviant behavior, but there were no consistent findings for girls. There was no effect of maturational timing on teacher reports of school absence, adjustment, popularity, need for discipline, or grade repetition.This research was supported by the Stanford Center for the Study of Youth Development and by the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation.Received M.D. from The Medical College of Pennsylvania.Received Ph.D. in anthropology from Stanford University.Received Ph.D. in sociology from the University of Chicago.Received M.D. from Columbia College of Physicians and Surgeons.Received Ph.D. in psychology from Harvard University.     

World War Two crown corporations: their wartime role and peacetime privatization

Abstract. This paper discusses the rationale for establishing the World War Two crown corporations and the subsequent decisions after the war about their retention or privatization. The government was ideologically supportive of crown corporations and they were established in situations where public ownership was a more effective policy instrument than regulation. The wartime crown corporations were active in providing national security and security of supply, and acted as a yardstick competitor in various segments of the munitions industry. The characteristic of crown corporations making them preferable to regulation was that they were more effective at monitoring the private sector and ensuring policy coordination between the public and private sectors. Most of the crown corporations were terminated when the focus of public policy shifted to peacetime production. However, they were retained in areas which remained government priorities (weapons production, housing, uranium refining) or which C.D. Howe felt could be commerciaIly viable (synthetic rubber). The article concludes by contrasting the privatization of the aircraft industry with that of Research Enterprises, which produced radar and optical equipment. In the former case, the industry was successfully restructured by means of alternative policy instruments. In the latter, the government completely lost interest, which set back the development of Canadian expertise in optics and electronics. Sommaire. L'auteur de cet exposé examine le bien-fondé de la création des sociétés de la Couronne durant la Deuxième Guerre mondiale et les décisions de I'après-guerre concernant leur maintien ou leur “privatisation”. Idéologiquement, le gouvernement éait en faveur des sociétés de la Couronne et cellesci furent créées dans les cas où la propriété publique était un instrument de politique plus efficace que la régulation. Ces sociétés de la Couronne établies pendant la guerre le furent pour protéger la sécurité nationale et assurer les approvisionnenients, ainsi que pour instituer la norme concurrentielle dans les différents secteurs de l'industrie des munitions. La caractéristique des sociétés de b Coorannc qoi ies faisait préférer à la régulation était qu'elles permettaient one surveillance plus efficace da secteur privé et qu'elle assuraient la coordination entre Ies sectcurs public et privé. La phipart de ces sociétés cessèrent d'exister lorsque la politique publique se recentra sur la production du temps de paix. On les conserva cependant dans les domaines de priorités gouvernementales (production d'armements, logcment, raffinerie d'uranium) et là où C.D. Howe jugea qu'elles seraient commercialement viablcs (caoutchouc synthétique). Les auteurs concluent par une comparaison entre la “privatisation” de l'industrie aéronautique et celle de Research Enterprises qui fabriquaient des appareillages radar et de l'éqnipement optique. Dans le premier cas, l'industrie fut restracturée avec succès au moyen d'autres instruments de politique. Dans le second, le gouvernement se désintéressa complétement, ce qui retarda le développement de l'expertise canadienne en optique et électronique.     

Review panel consensus and post-decision commercial performance: a study of early stage technologies

We examine the ability of review panels to predict commercial success when evaluating early-stage technologies from small business. Specifically we examined whether a screening process resulted in greater consensus among grant panel members, to what extent certain panel members “stuck” to their evaluations, and whether information sharing and panel consensus resulted in better predictions of commercial success. In general, we found that expert panel members tend to move toward consensus after discussion, with technical experts being the most “sticky”. While information sharing does not lead to better prediction, increasing consensus among panel members does indicate a slight improvement in prediction accuracy.     

PREVENTION PROGRAMS FOR DIVORCED NONRESIDENT FATHERS

Divorced nonresident fathers are a promising target for preventive efforts to assist families after divorce. The research literature suggests that such programs should focus both on the frequency and the quality of the child's contact with the father, as well as the quality of postdivorce mother–father relations. Dads For Life (DFL) is the program for this target group with the most convincing evidence of preventive effects. This eight-week program centers on professionally made videos. It was tested in a randomized trial with 214 families. In comparison to control families, children in families in which the father participated in DFL had significantly lower internalizing problems. The preventive impact of DFL was strongest for the most troubled youngsters.     

THE CONTENT OF DIVORCE EDUCATION PROGRAMS

A survey was conducted to assess the content coverage of more than 100 divorce education programs for parents in North America. Fifty-six percent of the programs were mandatory for at least some categories of divorcing parents. Results showed that the most intensively covered topics involved the effects of divorce on children and the benefits of parental cooperation. Moderate coverage was devoted to skills acquisition, such as conflict management and parenting, and to the effects of divorce on parents. Minimal coverage was devoted to "nuts and bolts" and legal issues. The results are discussed in terms of issues likely to emerge as a result of this content coverage.