Potentials for federation of East African educational programmes

Educational planning, in the modern sense of the term, goes back in Thailand no further than 1962, when the Second Economic and Social Development Plan (1962/66) was launched. The Second Plan included a plan for the educational system as did the Third Plan (1967/71) which is now drawing to a close. These two educational plans were based on a variety of methods, including those of making long‐term forecasts of manpower requirements. Between 1963 and 1967, five different groups prepared manpower forecasts for Thailand, some of which looked no further than 1970, while others projected manpower requirements up to 1968. In this paper we will try to assess the quality of these forecasts and, so far as it is possible, to cmmpare prediction with outcome.

The paper consists of four parts. We begin with a brief review of background data in order to highlight the problems of manpower forecasting in an economy such as that of Thailand. The second section is devoted to a detailed discussion of the first and most ambitious of the five forecasts that have been made in Thailand. This is followed by brief evaluations of the remaining four forecasts. In the fast section, we will consider the influence that these forecasts actually exerted on educational planning in Thailand.     

Portfolio Saliency and Ministerial Turnover: Dynamics in Scandinavian Postwar Cabinets

Why do certain ministers remain in their post for years while others have their time in office cut short? Drawing on the broader literature on portfolio allocation, this article argues that the saliency of individual portfolios shapes ministerial turnover. The main argument is that ministerial dismissals are less likely to occur the higher the saliency attributed to the ministerial portfolio since ministers appointed to important posts are more likely to have been through extensive screening before appointment. Importantly, it is also posited in the article that the effect of portfolio salience is conditioned by government approval ratings: when government ratings are on the decline, prime ministers are less likely to reshuffle or fire important ministers than when approval ratings are improving. To test these claims, Cox proportional hazards models are applied to a new dataset on ministerial turnover in Scandinavia during the postwar period. The results strongly support the proposition that portfolio saliency matters for ministerial survival, and that this effect is moderated by government popularity.     

Going green: Explaining issue competition on the environment

This study addresses the dynamics of the issue space in multiparty systems by examining to what extent, and under what conditions, parties respond to the issue ownership of other parties on the green issue. To understand why some issues become part and parcel of the political agenda in multiparty systems, it is crucial not only to examine the strategies of issue entrepreneurs, but also the responses of other parties. It is argued that the extent to which other parties respond to, rather than ignore, the issue mobilisation of green parties depends on two factors: how much of an electoral threat the green party poses to a specific party; and the extent to which the political and economic context makes the green issue a potential vote winner. To analyse the evolution of the green issue, a time‐series cross‐section analysis is conducted using data from the Comparative Manifestos Project for 19 West European countries from 1980–2010. The findings have important implications for understanding issue evolution in multiparty systems and how and why the dynamics of party competition on the green issue vary across time and space.     

Singing in “another” language: how pronunciation matters in the organisation of choral rehearsals

In this paper, I analyse the rehearsals of a choir and focus on sequences during which participants correct and practise the pronunciation of an item. In order to sing in a choir, singers orient both to musical relevancies (such as melody, pitch and rhythm) and to the linguistic features of the words they sing (such as articulation of consonants or vowels, cutting of the syllables, accent): these features are fundamental to singing and can be the object of correction. I hereby take into consideration “second language” singing and show that, during this activity, the correction of a word pronunciation can be initiated and realised either by the director or by the singers themselves. I analyse the structure of these sequences and show their implication for the organisation of the activity and for the participatory dynamics of the rehearsals. Based on the video-recordings of the rehearsals of the choir of a music school, my analyses take into account both the audible and visible resources participants orient to; they thus contribute to a conversation analytical and multimodal perspective on the interactional and institutional activity of music rehearsals.     

Factors influencing the precision of estimating the postmortem interval using the triple-exponential formulae (TEF). Part I. A study of the effect of body variables and covering of the torso on the postmortem brain, liver and rectal cooling rates in 117 forensic cases

Brain, liver, rectal and environmental temperatures were continuously monitored under controlled conditions, in 117 forensic fatalities, for up to 60 h after death. Cases were studied either naked (63%) or covered with two blankets (37%). Bodies were classified into fat and thin groups. Statistical analysis and curve-fitting of the data yielded the average triple-exponential formulae for each body site and each body group. The effects of covering of the torso and body parameters such as weight, height, surface area and 'cooling size factor' (Z) on postmortem cooling are assessed and discussed. Results show that covering of the torso has a significant influence on the rate of postmortem cooling, however, there is no good correlation between the body variables and the cooling rate.     

Factors influencing the precision of estimating the postmortem interval using the triple-exponential formulae (TEF). Part II. A study of the effect of body temperature at the moment of death on the postmortem brain, liver and rectal cooling in 117 forensic cases

The temperatures of three body sites, namely, the brain, liver and the rectum as well as the temperature of the environment were continuously monitored, every 5-10 min, in 117 forensic cases commencing soon after death and in most cases, within 45 min postmortem. The body temperature at the moment of death was empirically determined by a computer-based extrapolation method. Thus, temperature data for the first 3h of each body site were fitted to single-exponential equations and the fitted curve was extrapolated backwards to obtain the intercept on the Y-axis (the temperature axis). The effect of body temperature at the moment of death on postmortem cooling rate is examined and factors influencing body temperature at death are discussed. Forensic fatalities associated with hyper and hypothermia are reviewed briefly.