New estimates of U.S. currency abroad,the domestic money supply and the unreported economy

Despite financial innovations that have created important new substitutes for cash usage, per capita holdings of U.S. currency amount to $2950. Yet American households and businesses admit to holding only 15% of the currency stock, leaving the whereabouts of 85% unknown. Some fraction of this unaccounted for currency is held abroad (the dollarization hypothesis) and some is held domestically undeclared, as a store of value and a medium of exchange for transactions involving the production and distribution of illegal goods and services, and for transactions earning income that is not reported to the IRS (the unreported economy hypothesis). We find that the percentage of U.S. currency currently held overseas is between 30 and 37% rather than the widely cited figure of 65%. This finding is based on the official Federal Reserve/Bureau of Economic Analysis data which is a proxy measure of the New York Federal Reserve’s (NYB) “confidential” data on wholesale currency shipments abroad. We recommend that the NYB data be aggregated so as to circumvent confidentiality concerns, and be made readily available to all researchers in order to shed greater light on the questions of how much U.S. currency is abroad and on the particular location of overseas U.S. dollars. The newly revised official estimates of overseas currency holdings are employed to determine the Federal Reserve’s seigniorage earnings from 1964–2010, which have provided a $2950. Yet American households and businesses admit to holding only 15% of the currency stock, leaving the whereabouts of 85% unknown. Some fraction of this unaccounted for currency is held abroad (the dollarization hypothesis) and some is held domestically undeclared, as a store of value and a medium of exchange for transactions involving the production and distribution of illegal goods and services, and for transactions earning income that is not reported to the IRS (the unreported economy hypothesis). We find that the percentage of U.S. currency currently held overseas is between 30 and 37% rather than the widely cited figure of 65%. This finding is based on the official Federal Reserve/Bureau of Economic Analysis data which is a proxy measure of the New York Federal Reserve’s (NYB) “confidential” data on wholesale currency shipments abroad. We recommend that the NYB data be aggregated so as to circumvent confidentiality concerns, and be made readily available to all researchers in order to shed greater light on the questions of how much U.S. currency is abroad and on the particular location of overseas U.S. dollars. The newly revised official estimates of overseas currency holdings are employed to determine the Federal Reserve’s seigniorage earnings from 1964–2010, which have provided a 287 billion windfall for U.S. taxpayers. Overseas currency stock data are also used to derive estimates of the domestically held stock of currency as well as narrow and broad measures of domestic monetary aggregates. These domestic monetary aggregates are believed to be better predictors of future economic activity than traditional monetary aggregates and are tested to determine their ability to predict fluctuations in real output and prices. Domestic cash holdings are finally used to estimate the size of the U.S. unreported economy as measured by the amount of income that is not properly reported to the IRS. By 2010, we estimate that legal and illegal source unreported income” is $1.9–$1.9–2.4 trillion, implying a “tax gap” in the range of $400–$400–540 billion. Currently, we estimate that 18–23% of total reportable income is not properly reported to the IRS.     

Interaction orders of drug dealing spaces: local orders of sensemaking in a poor black American place

Based on ethnographic data, this essay analyzes the social order properties of a poor urban street, in a small city in the northeast United States, on which drug dealing is the principle occupation. Rather than treating drug dealing as an agent of disorder, we focus on the order properties of drug dealing and the ordered character of the local code of conduct that develops around it. Like Sudhir Venkatesh (American Journal of Sociology 103:82–111, 1997) we examine the interface between drug dealing and the neighborhood. However, in this small urban space the drug dealers are not outsiders, rather, they are long term residents: established insiders who are well integrated into community life. As such their work practices and the requirements they place on behavior in public spaces impact the neighborhood in comprehensive ways. We detail the phenomenon Elijah Anderson called the “code of the street” (Anderson 1999) as a set of practices and social markers, a local Interaction Order (Goffman, American Sociological Review 48:1–17, 1983; Rawls, Sociological Theory 2:136–149, 1987), that furnishes basic day to day sensemaking tools for residents (Rawls 2009). We propose that this order has a constitutive character that furnishes stable expectations (Garfinkel 1963, 1967) for meaningful social action and identity in the neighborhood. In a context of industrial decline and urban poverty, drug dealing careers constitute a major socialization factor, that touches everyone here—especially children.     

Ready to leave the ivory tower?: Academic scientists’ appeal to work in the private sector

This study investigates the factors that shape the attitudes of scientists toward starting their own business or working in a private sector firm. The analysis is based on data collected from scientists working in the German Max Planck Society, a research institution devoted to basic science. We find that the scientists’ attractiveness of working in a private sector firm or of starting their own business differ considerably according to their academic discipline and the self-reported commercial potential of their research. The ability to take risks, prior work experience in private firms, and personal experience in cooperating with industry lead to a positive attitude towards switching to private sector employment or entrepreneurship. Strong willingness to freely distribute research findings is related to a low appeal of private sector work.     

Including conflict-affected youth in agri-food chains: agribusiness in northern Uganda

Farming and agribusiness could help employ and reintegrate conflict-affected youth in regions recovering from civil conflict. This study addresses the constraints for youth to engage themselves in agribusiness in the worst conflict-affected regions of northern Uganda. Specifically, it explores to what extent beekeeping and honey business offer viable socio-economic opportunities to formerly displaced youth. Using a value chain approach, the study draws on in-depth interviews with 23 (young) key stakeholders in the honey value chain, document analysis and focus group discussions. The results suggest that apiculture business can create employment for conflict-affected youth in northern Uganda due to the relatively low entry barriers, a young enthused vanguard and higher returns per unit input compared to other agricultural sectors in the region. However in order to succeed, this group requires support from community elders, government and business facilitators, because, due to their age and war background, these youngsters face the common constraints to farming and agribusiness, but at higher degrees of severity.     

“Because That’s What Justice Is to Us”: Exploring the Racialized Collateral Consequences of New Parochialism

Renewed interest in communities as spaces for criminal opportunity has generated numerous studies of neighborhood social dynamics and crime. Most of this research is rooted in social disorganization theory, which examines neighborhood structural characteristics that facilitate effective social control. While many studies tout the benefits of community-based controls, the potential externalities of these efforts remain underexplored. In the modern neoliberal context, where policing strategies stress community involvement and often focus on vaguely-defined problems like “quality of life” or “incivilities” and where police have considerable enforcement discretion, the unintended consequences of community-based controls are important to document. I use the ethnographic case study of Gardner Village to explore the potential collateral consequences of one form of collective social control: new parochialism. Applying a critical lens to the social disorganization literature, I argue that when embedded in particular structural contexts, new parochialism contributes to the reproduction of inequality and undermines community-building processes.     

Trauma Characteristics and Posttraumatic Stress Disorder among Adolescent Survivors of Childhood Sexual Abuse

This study examined the relationship between the characteristics of childhood sexual abuse (CSA) and the severity of consequent posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), depression, suicidal ideation, and substance use in a sample of 83 female adolescents aged 13–18 years seeking treatment for PTSD. Nearly two-thirds of the sample (60.7 %, n?=?51) reported the perpetrator of the CSA was a relative. A large portion (40.5 %, n?=?34) of the sample reported being victimized once, while almost a quarter of the sample reported chronic victimization (23.8 %, n?=?20). PTSD and depression scores were in the clinical range, whereas reported levels of suicidal ideation and substance use were low. The frequency of victimizations was associated with suicidal ideation. Contrary to expectation, CSA characteristics including trauma type, perpetrator relationship, and duration of abuse were unrelated to PTSD severity, depressive symptoms, or substance abuse.     

Must Internal Working Models be Internalized? A Case Illustrating an Alternative Pathway to Attachment

Internal working models of attachment are conceptualized as internalizations of interpersonal dynamics involving attachment—schemata derived from secure therapeutic relationships if not established in childhood. The potential for developing internal working models in the absence of adequate attachment history is demonstrated by the case of a dismissing (avoidantly-attached) client with Dissociative Identity Disorder (DID) abandoned in early childhood. Using the Collective Heart model (Krakauer 2001)—which targets posttraumatic misattributions of power and quickly challenges the client’s perceived brokenness and helplessness—the client formed an intimate bond with a formerly unconscious inner guidance resource experienced as a maternal attachment figure long before a robust therapeutic relationship was established. Verbatim case material illustrates autohypnotic interventions potentiating this “Wise Mother’s” guidance of the client’s identity development and mastery of relational tasks by mining and augmenting fragmentary attachment experiences. Theoretical and clinical implications of the evolution and function of the Wise Mother are discussed.     

Can the Public Trust Doctrine Save the High Seas?

Abstract

The high seas is one of the last remaining commons on the planet, but comprehensive efforts to save this area beyond national jurisdiction have not been successful. This article examines the feasibility of applying the public trust doctrine to the high seas by first evaluating tools that are currently in place to protect biodiversity then analyzing the public trust doctrine in its traditional application in the United States and other countries. With this foundation, the article examines the possibility and methodology of applying the public trust concept to protect the high seas.