Some mathematical problems in the DNA identification of victims in the 2004 tsunami and similar mass fatalities

DNA is a major and essential identification tool for mass fatality incidents including the hundreds of thousands of victims of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. Mathematical complications characteristic of this sort of mass fatality include prevalence of related victims, the many races represented among the victims, and various identification modalities in tandem with DNA. Four mathematical problems of interest are discussed in this paper. (1) Other quantifiable factors (i.e. geography) can be formally accounted for by including a likelihood ratio that can be thought of as reducing the "effective number of victims." (2) When a victim is found and tentatively identified as V, but then it comes to light that the victim has a relative W who is also missing, confidence in the identity is depressed. To account for the existence of W, increment the effective number of victims by the likelihood ratio supporting W as the identity of the victim. (3) When several apparently related victims are found, their mutual identities should be calculated simultaneously. Compared to one-at-a-time, serial identifications, this is both logical and may lead to much more confidence in the identities. (4) Although there may be many different population groups represented among the missing, it is generally sufficient to consider population statistics for only a few of them in deciding whether to declare an identification.     

Definition of "Terrorism" in the UN Security Council: 1985-2004

International debate about the problems of defining terrorismhistorically centred on the General Assembly. Yet, between 1985and 2001, the Security Council adopted a range of measures addressingterrorist threats to peace and security, and analysis of theincidents involved reveals much about the Council's understandingof "terrorism". After September 2001, problems of definitionbecame acute, since the Council adopted general legislativemeasures against terrorism—with serious legal consequences—withoutdefining it. The Council has encouraged States to unilaterallydefine terrorism in national law, permitting wide and divergentdefinitions. A non-binding Council definition of late 2004 failsto remedy the serious difficulties caused by the lack of anoperative definition in Council practice.     

Outcomes for children who care for a parent with a severe illness or substance abuse

Quantitative studies of children’s caring activities during parental illness have increased in the past 10 years. However, the various outcomes for these children have been investigated less frequently. In the present study, we investigate whether the children have different outcomes when the parent has a severe physical illness, mental illness, or substance abuse and whether any factors are associated with the positive and negative outcomes of the children’s caregiving. This was a cross-sectional, multicenter study. We recruited parents who were out- or inpatients in five public hospitals in Norway as well as their children. The sample included 246 children ages 8–18 and 238 of their parents with a severe physical illness, mental illness, or substance abuse. Ten percent reported negative outcomes at a clinical level of concern, and nearly half of the children reported stress. However, the outcomes were not significantly different across parental illness groups. Positive and negative outcomes were associated with the nature of caring activities (e.g., personal care, financial and practical management, household management), social skills, and perceived external locus of control. Health professionals must provide a more comprehensive and overall assessment of both the parents’ and the children’s needs. To recognize the role taken by the child, an assessment of children’s caring activities and their need for adequate information should be performed. In particular, should the children’s need for follow-up regarding caring activities, respite, and emotional support be assessed to secure their necessary skills and feeling of mastery.     

ISFG: Recommendations on biostatistics in paternity testing

The Paternity Testing Commission (PTC) of the International Society for Forensic Genetics has taken up the task of establishing the biostatistical recommendations in accordance with the ISO 17025 standards and a previous set of ISFG recommendations specific to the genetic investigations in paternity cases. In the initial set, the PTC recommended that biostatistical evaluations of paternity are based on a likelihood ratio principle – yielding the paternity index, PI. Here, we have made five supplementary biostatistical recommendations. The first recommendation clarifies and defines basic concepts of genetic hypotheses and calculation concerns needed to produce valid PIs. The second and third recommendations address issues associated with population genetics (allele probabilities, Y-chromosome markers, mtDNA, and population substructuring) and special circumstances (deficiency/reconstruction and immigration cases), respectively. The fourth recommendation considers strategies regarding genetic evidence against paternity. The fifth recommendation covers necessary documentation, reporting details and assumptions underlying calculations. The PTC strongly suggests that these recommendations should be adopted by all laboratories involved in paternity testing as the basis for their biostatistical analysis.     

Convergence in Transition Countries – Focus on Investment: Central and Eastern Europe, 1970–1996

Our data on investment in Central and Eastern European economies reveal that, though investment rates were typically high in the 1970s, the marginal efficiency of investment was low. Investment shares begun to decline in the 1980s, before the collapse of the communist system, but there was some recovery in most countries after transition. We use the Kalman filter framework to test for convergence in investment rates. We find some evidence of convergence in Central European countries – former Czechoslovakia, Poland and the countries of the former Yugoslavia. For the remainder of the socialist bloc, however, we were unable to isolate convergence in investment shares.     

Medico-legal secrecy in New Zealand

In the absence of the right to sue for medical negligence, the New Zealand Health and Disability Commissioner (HDC) and the Health Practitioners Disciplinary Tribunal (HPDT) have become the centrepieces of New Zealand's medico-legal system. This article examines the claim that for both bodies secrecy, by name suppression, is the default position and that the private interests of doctors are elevated above the legitimate public interest in the performance of medical professionals. In particular, it examines HDC's blanket policy of suppressing the names of complainants, practitioners, hospitals, District Health Boards and geographical locations, and HPDT's stated but wavering commitment to openness. The authors conclude that both bodies may have failed, albeit in different ways, to recognise the legitimate and significant public interest in the names of those few practitioners found in breach of professional standards.