Fertility,family planning,and development: Indirect influences

This paper focuses on the indirect influences on changing fertility and on the direct and indirect influences on family planning effort. Complete data on the variables under consideration were gathered from a variety of sources for 65 developing countries. The results here should be generalized only to high fertility, high mortality, low education, and low per capita gross national product nations. 1) Some social variables, like education, are more important than others for explaining fertility and family planning effort. The treatment of social setting as a single variable obscures the importance of lower level education (literacy, primary, and secondary school enrollment) for fertility and family planning. 2) Ignoring the indirect influences on fertility may lead us to understimate the importance of some variables on fertility, and perhaps to overestimate the importance of others. When both direct and indirect effects (the latter through family planning effort) are examined, the impact of education increases to nearly equal that of family planning effort in 3 of the 4 models developed here. 3) Program effort can be explained at least as well with a single variable (literacy or female school enrollment) as with the composite variable "social setting." 4) In addition to its importance in explaining fertility, education may also be important in explaining mortality. 5) It appears that the absolute and relative status of women may be an important variable which has not yet been adequately measured. Overall, the results of this study lend additional support to the position that, in addition to family planning effort, education may play a more crucial role than is obvious in fertility reduction in developing countries.     

SSI case closures.

In 1990, about 800,000 persons receiving payments from the Supplemental Security Income (SSI) program had their cases closed and their payments stopped. The most frequently cited reasons for these case closures were excess income and death. Of those cases closed for reasons other than death, about 43 percent eventually returned to payment status. This study presents an analysis of a 1-percent sample of SSI recipients whose cases were closed during 1990. Longitudinal data on closures were collected by merging a series of monthly 1-percent sample files containing SSI administrative data. These are the first published data on reasons for SSI case closures.     

Policy process perceptions of senior Canadian federal civil servants: a view of the state and its environment

Abstract: Based on interviews with senior civil federal civil servants in Ottawa, perceptions of various actors' influence on public policy are examined. It is hypothesized that perceived influence patterns will change as one moves across the major phases of the policy process. Although it is expected that actors within the state will be of primary importance throughout the process, it is also expected that the relative importance of actors outside the state will increase as one moves from forming a policy agenda and selecting policy towards policy implementation. This should be particularly true of the perceived influence of private companies. Despite this change in perceived levels of influence of state versus non-state actors, the structure of correlation patterns for perceived influence patterns will probably not change dramatically from one policy process phase to the next. Results are also presented pertaining to the actual interaction patterns of the civil servants who were interviewed, as well as the relation between interaction and perceived influence. It is expected that there will be positive relations between these two types of variables but that direct interaction will not consistently explain the majority of variation in perceived influence variables. Sommaire: À la suite d'entrevues avec des hauts fonctionnaires fédéraux à Ottawa, on examine ici les perceptions quant à l'influence de divers intervenants sur les politiques gouvernementales. On prend pour hypothèse que ces perceptions évolueront à mesure que l'on avance d'une grande étape à l'autre dans le processus de définition des politiques. On s'attend à ce que les intervenants étatiques jouent un rôle primordial tout au long du processus, mais aussi à ce que le rôle relatif des intervenants extérieurs au gouvernement prenne de l'ampleur lorsqu'on passe de l'établissement d'une liste de politiques au choix des politiques elles-mêmes et, en?fin, à la mise en oeuvre de ces politiques. Ceci devrait s'appliquer tout particulièrement à la manière dont on perçoit l'influence des sociétés privées. Malgré ce changement du niveau d'influence perçu entre les intervenants gouvernementaux et les nongouvernementaux, la structure corrélative des influences perçues ne changera probablement pas de façon dramatique d'une étape à l'autre du processus d'élaboration des politiques. On présente également des résultats concernant l'interaction effective des fonctionnaires interviewés, ainsi que le rapport entre cette interaction et l'influence perçue. On prévoit des rapports positifs entre ces deux groupes de variables, mais aussi que l'interaction directe ne saurait expliquer de manière cohérente la plupart des variations dans les variables de l'influence perçue.     

Fertility,development, and family planning

Earlier studies by Tsui and Bogue (1978) and Mauldin and Berelson (1978) suggested that family planning efforts account for 3-4 times the variance in fertility than is explained by indicators of socioeconomic development. This paper replicates, extends, and revises these analyses. Selection of a different set of countries for sampling was found to have little effect on the earlier results. In addition, neither factor scaling nor the addition of distributional variables had a substantial effect. However, weighting countries by population size was found to produce a decline in explained variance. It was found that although family planning has a stronger direct effect on fertility than any other variable when countries are considered, the effect of education is stronger when people are considered. When more developed countries were included in the analysis, the combination of prior fertility and mortality explained almost all the variation in current fertility. This finding suggests that fertility is more responsive to longterm, stabilized changes in mortality than to short-term changes. 4 methodological conclusions are derived from these analyses: 1) unless a sample of countries is overtly biased, the selection of a sample on the basis of available data has little impact on the results; 2) stepwise methods can be utilized to avoid the inclusion of a large number of variables in a regression equation; 3) weighting of cases has a substantial impact on results; and 4) since most variables have little direct influence on fertility change, analysis should be extended to examine indirect influences. These results suggest a policy which invests economic resources in education and mortality reduction as well as family planning efforts. Investments in primary and secondary education may reduce mortality as well as fertility.