Predictors of recidivism among halfway house residents

This study concerns client success or failure while residing in a halfway house for adult offenders. As with some other studies, failure or recidivism is defined in this analysis as behavior that results in removal from the facility and subsequent incarceration. This quantitative case study of one treatment facility in Tennessee utilized case records on the population of clients from 1981 through 1987 (N = 75). A number of hypotheses were developed and tested with both bh/ariate and multivariate methods. Results indicated that, at least in this halfway house, those residents who had experienced two or more prison terms and who had most recently been convicted for a violent crime were most likely to recidivate while in the facility. Other substantively significant factors were alcohol use, religious attendance, and the experience of mental health counseling. Programmatic implications of these results are discussed.     

Institutional Inconsistency and Political Instability: Polity Duration, 1800–2000

This article examines how political institutional structures affect political instability. It classifies polities as autocracies or democracies based on three institutional dimensions: election of the executive, constraints on executive decision-making authority, and extent of political participation. It hypothesizes that strongly autocratic and democratic regimes will exhibit the greatest stability resulting from self-enforcing equilibria, whereby the maintenance of a polity's institutional structure is in the interest of political elites, whether through autocratic or democratic control. Institutionally inconsistent regimes (those exhibiting a mix of institutional characteristics of both democracy and autocracy) lack these self-enforcing characteristics and are expected to be shorter-lived. Using a log-logistic duration model, polity survival time ratios are estimated. Institutionally consistent polities are significantly more stable than institutionally inconsistent polities. The least stable political systems are dictatorships with high levels of political participation. The most unstable configuration for polities with an elected executive is one where the executive is highly constrained, but the electorate is very small.     

Royal Commissions in Australia: When Should Governments Appoint Them?

The Cole Royal Commission into AWB sales of wheat to Iraq once again draws attention to questions of when should governments resort to ad hoc inquiries and, in particular, establish royal commissions with their associated prestige and statutory powers to call and examine witnesses and require presentation of documents. In this article, Dr Scott Prasser, author of ‘Royal Commisions and Public Inquiries in Australia (Lexis Nexis 2006) examines the use of royal commissions and other investigatory/inquisitorial instruments of executive government by Commonwealth and state governments.