Rationality and the political business cycle: The case of local government

The empirical results which have been reported support the hypotheses' implied by the model of rational political behavior set out in Section 2. In pre-election periods, local government development expenditures deviate significantly from their normal levels. The extent of deviation is approximately 20%.Consistent with the predictions of this model, it is found that incumbents not seeking re-election deviated far more in their pre-election discretionary budget expenditure than incumbents seeking re-election. The expenditure gap between the two types of incumbents is large and statistically significant. Incumbents not seeking re-election exhibit a deviation equivalent to 47% of the development budget, while those seeking re-election exhibit a 12% deviation.     

欧盟与中国的软实力对地区和全球治理的影响

本文讨论了欧洲和中国软实力政治对于东亚地区治理过程以及全球治理的影响。文中笔者重点讨论了欧盟及美国对东亚地区特别是对中国政策的特点;指出了二者的区别所在,及其对东亚地区化进程以及东亚地区发展带来的不同影响。通过比较,说明软实力对于地区治理及全球治理将产生深远影响。     

Assessing the Sources of Classical Arabic Compilations: The Issue of Categories and Methodologies

The complex nature of medieval Arabic compilations, with their evidence of manifold pieces and layers of diverse (older) text material, has been puzzling to many scholars of Islam. It has even caused some researchers to question the authenticity and credibility of information contained in these texts—and their value as historical sources—altogether.

An inquiry into the theoretical controversies at issue here constitutes the starting point of this article. Additionally, we will look at the categories and terms more frequently used in Western studies of the sources of Arabic compilations from about the eighth to the eleventh century Common Era (CE). The second part of the article offers an extensively annotated catalogue of categories and terms. This terminology, it is hoped, will help advance the assessment of classical Arabic compilations, for it takes the actual circumstances of the transmission of knowledge and the working techniques of compilers in medieval Islam into proper consideration. In conclusion, the paper illustrates how the proposed categories and terms are to be applied. It will become clear that the application of this kind of refined source-critical examination of individual classical Arabic texts is instrumental to a better understanding of medieval Muslim scholarship in general.     

The Role of EU Internal Policies in Implementing Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Options to Achieve Kyoto Targets

This paper reviews the role of internal European Union (EU) policies and measures in implementing the target for greenhouse gas mitigation in the Kyoto Protocol. It starts with a discussion of the EU Burden Sharing Agreement, which distributes the target between Member States. This leads to a review of the appropriate level of implementation of policies, i.e. at the EU level or Member State level. There is a role for the flexible mechanisms of the Protocol, particularly emission permit trading, in complementing Member State policies at the EU level. The implementation is to be done against the background of three major factors which may have an important bearing on the policies: the probable long-term requirement of substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions a changing structure of energy markets, following liberalisation of the gas and electricity markets EU enlargement to include economies in transition with the potential for further substantial reductions in emissions.The paper concludes with a discussion of ancillary benefits of the policies that may be substantial and a summary of the position as regards the "unfinished business" of the Protocol to be discussed at the Conference of the Parties in the Hague in November 2000.     

Self-esteem and delinquency

Cross-lagged panel correlation technique is used to examine whether self-esteem has a greater effect on delinquency than delinquency has on self-esteem. Analysis of a nationwide study of tenth-grade boys shows that self-esteem is the more powerful causal factor, even when initial levels of delinquency are held constant. This result, however, is found to be stronger in the lower class than in the upper class. These data are interpreted as lending greater support to Kaplan's theory of the self-enhancing nature of delinquent behavior than to the idea of reflected appraisals.The research reported in this article was funded by a grant from the National Institute of Mental Health (MH27747), which is gratefully acknowledged. The data and tabulations utilized in this article were made available (in part) by the Institute for Social Research Social Science Archive. The data were originally collected by Dr. Jerald G. Bachman, Survey Research Center, Institute for Social Research, The University of Michigan. Neither the original collector of the data nor the archive bears any responsibility for the analyses or interpretations presented here.This article is a revised version of a paper presented at the annual meeting of the Eastern Sociological Society, Philadelphia, April 2, 1978.Received her Ph.D. from the University of Maryland and is interested particularly in the social influence on the self-concept.Received his Ph.D. from Columbia University and is interested in the structure and development of the self-concept.Received her Ph.D. from Stanford University. Current research interests are related to a longitudinal study of personality development.     

Positive Resolution of Childhood Sexual Abuse Experiences: The Role of Coping,Benefit-Finding and Meaning-Making

Resolution of the trauma of childhood sexual abuse (CSA), and the current adjustment of 60 adult female CSA survivors were explored through qualitative and quantitative analyses of their coping strategies, perceived benefits, and meaning-making attempts. While the majority of the women (87%) perceived at least some benefit resulting from coping with the CSA experience, many (29%) found it impossible to make any meaning of their trauma. Specific benefits that were associated with various aspects of positive adjustment (marital satisfaction, better physical health, less isolation) included improved relationships with others, religious or spiritual growth, and improved parenting skills. Some perceived benefits were actually associated with a negative outcome. Increased knowledge of sexual abuse was associated with more isolation and lower marital satisfaction. When positive meaning could be derived from the coping process, the women reported less isolation. Avoidant coping was strongly associated with more depressive symptoms and poorer resolution of abuse issues. Results highlight the importance of considering coping strategies and cognitive restructuring efforts in designing therapeutic interventions with this population. Portions of this paper were presented at the annual meeting of the Midwest Psychological Association, May 2004, Chicago, IL.