Evidence comes by replication,but needs differentiation: the reproducibility issue in science and its relevance for criminology

Recent publications in Nature, Science, and other journals raised concerns about the reproducibility of empirical findings in psychology and other scientific disciplines. This article summarizes some of these arguments and results that led to discussions about a “replication crisis” in research. In criminology, there is not yet a similar discussion, although the need for more replications has been emphasized in the past. The present article addresses this topic with special consideration of program evaluations in early developmental crime prevention and offender treatment. In both fields, there has been substantial progress in research and practice. Most systematic reviews showed mean positive effects; however, nearly all of them demonstrated very heterogeneous findings that could not be attributed to the content of programs. This does not allow simple recommendations of “what works” for policy-making and practice. In addition, there is a serious lack of long-term follow-ups and independent evaluations. The article shows remarkable similarity of the findings and problems in both fields of intervention. Problems of reproducibility prove to be highly relevant for criminology, although there is no need for using the term “crisis”. The article proposes various strategies that can enhance the reproducibility of findings, i.e., more systematic investigation of those differentiated conditions under which interventions are most effective. An integrative model of relevant characteristics is briefly presented. It refers to factors of the programs, contexts, participants, and evaluation methods. Confirmatory meta-analyses can play an important role on the path toward more differentiated and replicated knowledge     

Online Y-chromosomal short tandem repeat haplotype reference database (YHRD) for U.S. populations

We describe here an online Y-chromosomal short tandem repeat haplotype reference database (YHRD) for U.S. populations, which represents 9-locus Y-STR haplotypes for 1705 African-Americans, European-Americans and Hispanics as of October 2001. This database is available online (http://www.ystr. org/usa/), free to access and was generated in order to supply the U.S. forensic DNA community with a valuable resource for frequencies of complete or incomplete 9-locus Y-STR haplotypes, as well as information about typing protocols and population genetic analyses. Pairwise R(ST)-statistics derived from the Y-STR haplotypes indicate no significant substructure among African-American populations from different regions of the U.S., nor (usually) among European-American and Hispanic populations. Thus, pooling of Y-STR haplotype data from regional populations within these three major groups is appropriate in order to obtain larger sample sizes. However, pooling of different major populations is generally not recommended due to statistically significant differences between African-American populations and all European-American/Hispanic populations, as well as between some European-American and Hispanic populations.     

Public attitudes toward economic conditions and their impact on government behavior

This article reviews extant studies of the impact of economic conditions on government electoral behavior in the Western democracies. Three conclusions are reached: (1) in representative democracies there exists a consistent relationship between the economic situation and citizen evaluation of government; (2) the proposition that governments are interested in achieving their selfish goals in elections fares well compared with the competing proposition that governments are interested in the state of the economy as such; and (3) governments and voters are not the only actors in politico-economic decisions: bureaucracies and interest groups may make government incapable of changing its policies quickly in the face of stiff resistance from this multitude of other actors. Their inclusion in relevant models is a necessary next step in research designed to understand better the functioning of modern democratic societies.This paper was written while the author was at GSIA, Carnegie-Mellon University.     

Peri-mortem skin lesions caused by regurgitation of gastric juice. 2 case reports and differential diagnostic considerations

Two cases of regurgitation of gastric juice peri mortem are reported which resulted in lesions of the thoracic skin and led to the suspicion of being caused by another possibly dangerous chemical agent. In both cases, however, other causes of death could be established. Neither could any foreign chemical substances be detected by extensive toxicological investigations nor were any alterations of esophagus and gastric mucosa revealed in the course of the autopsy. Histological investigations demonstrated a circumscribed recent necrosis of the epidermis and dermis. Therefore, regurgitation of the acidic gastric content as the agent impairing the skin was most likely. The impressive histological appearance of the peri mortem regurgitation skin lesions lesions may be due to the circulatory arrest as well as stagnation of vital cellular reactions and repair mechanisms, dehydration of the altered tissue and postmortem permanence of the impairing agent.     

On the Political Economy of Environmental Policy

In the past there was hardly any use of economic instrumentsin environmental policy, mainly command and control measureswere used. More recently, ecological taxes as well as tradablepermits became more popular and voluntary agreements have beenimplemented. Using the Public Choice approach we ask for thereasons of this wider acceptance of economic instruments. Weconclude that the use of market based instruments inenvironmental policy has not increased very much and theirimpact on the actual situation is still rather low, but thereis hope of a at least some increase in the future.